Gold Price Target

War open the doors to explosive debt, more so if a war goes on longer than expected.


War is a battle of resources, he who runs out of stuff first, loses. No matter if its arrows, bullets or missiles. 

Chart 1 - Gold trend is about to explode higher. Of course if gold and silver are the new momentum pump you can expect crypto to be still on hold in the waiting room. Place your bets!

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Bitcoin slump!

Question: Why was the crypto cycle of 2025/26 such a dud!



Answer: Short answer. Japanese yen weakness.

Long answer.

        (1) The effect of the JPY weakness due to Japanese debt spiral dynamics.
        (2) Chinese housing deflation.
        (3) US interest rates are to high on tariff fears.

Asian speculators have not fueled mind-blowing crypto prices, and have enjoyed the speculation in silver and gold as a replacement. 

Fixes:
(1) The BOJ [and the FED] buys Japanese bonds to avoid a global debt spiral collapse, the result will be US dollar (DXY) < 85, and a stronger Japanese currency (JPY). 
(2) The PBOC prints more money, and Xi encourages investment in gold to offset consumer housing value losses. 
(3) The FED cuts rates as inflation did not appear (yet) and US dollar (DXY) < 90.

POINT: The quick fix is the DXY down hard!

Before the charts below, here is a rule to understand. 

Rule: Gold moves higher when there is stress in the global debt finance. Bitcoin moves higher when the stress in global debt finance is released. 


Chart 1 - Bitcoin moves up in price fast when the Chinese economy runs hot (no financial stress). This is expressed by the Chinese 10 yr interest rate (CNY10) ratio to the US Dollar (DXY). The Chinese 10 yr rate rises when the economy overheats.

The red line (A) below has been sideways during 2025, expressing no excitement in the Chinese economy (financial stress present). No excitement to send Bitcoin to the moon.  

Chart 2 - Japanese currency (JPY) weakness removes export power (and economic power) from the Chinese economy. During the Bitcoin rallies in 2018 and 2021, the Chinese currency (CNY) started much weaker than the Japanese currency (JPY), and when strength arrived to the Chinese currency, the Bitcoin rally ended.

Chart 3 - Japanese debt spiral risk has sent the Japanese currency down. Rising 10 yr interest rates while inflation is mute have shown a lack of confidence in the Japanese bond market and investors are expecting massive central bank intervention to avoid a global debt spiral. 

More on the Japanese debt risk. 

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Gold and Silver Targets

Time to calculate targets based on a measured move for gold and silver.



Chart 1 - Gold chart from 1971 (Nixon gold standard exit). Clear shows strong resistance near $6,000 to $10,000. Of course $20,000 is there as well, can not imagine pricing getting there this time. Notice how price bounces between arc's and Gann angles. 

Chart 2 - Silver using measure move targets

Chart 3 - China forecast for more money printing. Add this to USA reflation suggest 2026 is going to be HOT for the economy. 

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Wyckoff Chart for 2026

The most attractive Wyckoff Accumulation structure for the next 12 months.



On the back of more money printing.

Risk on assets will do well in 2026.

There is no better picture for a Wyckoff investor than the chart below for the environment we are going to enter into 2026.

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Date Found: Tuesday, 18 December 2018, 12:35:25 AM

Comment: tic tic tic

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Comment: Primer for Gold Investors - by Chris Rutherglen PhD

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Date Found: Tuesday, 11 October 2022, 07:28:08 AM

Comment: Primer for Gold Investors - by Chris Rutherglen PhD

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Bitcoin is Chinese now!

This chart list shows how important China stimulus is to bitcoin.


The greatest show on Earth is the G2. The China vs USA show. The end result is both sides need each other, and both sides will print money handsomely.

Chart 1 - PBOC stimulus tools clearly show correlation to Bitcoin.  The PBOC needs to create a lot more money to reverse their current deflationary trends. It's just started folks!

Chart 2 - When China stimulates copper does better than gold. Gold is stronger on financial stress, copper is stronger when the stress is overcome. 

Chart 3 - The ratio of the Chinese 10 yr to the US dollar (DXY) is sync with Bitcoin peaks. 

Chart 4 - US Liquidity is improving, just in time for US Mid terms. 

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The Big Long - Everything Gold

Investing is about everyone agreeing with you, later.


Chart 1 - There are only two price points that matter with a gold mine. The price of gold and the price of oil are the two key factors. The revenue is gold, with oil (diesel and petrol) being the major expense. Labor is normally variable with the revenue produced. The ideal economic conditions, often referred to as Goldilocks conditions, for gold mine profitability occur when gold prices are rising while oil prices remain stable.

Chart 2 - XAU earning per share is booming proving gold stocks are enjoying a goldilocks time. 

Chart 3 - Historic trends of gold and oil show (yellow shade) history is repeating good times for gold miners. 

Chart 4 - What can stop this train? Well, higher trends in the oil price would strangle profits. We are currently at cycle lows for oil, which means price can only go one way, and that is higher. But this will take some time into the middle of 2026, plenty of time for gold stocks to shine. 

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Sector Performance Review

Portfolio sector graphic, shows falling DXY effects all.


yAxis - Relative strength of Sector ETF to !NYSE Index
xAxis - Sector ETF Price Trend strength
Square - Current Value
Line Tail - Trend over the last 8 months (16 half months)

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Dollar Cycle Low is due (Part 2)

Cycle exist in the market, the US dollar is due for a major cycle low.



Central banks are cutting short-term rates. The US Federal Reserve is late with their rate cuts, but they are coming in late 2025 and until 2026.

The inflation issue may be sidelined while lower rates are used to refinance $9T of USA debt to the front end of the curve. Then the Trump team wants to keep the juice going into the US midterms of Nov 2026.

Add to the above, China is taking advantage of a weaker US dollar and is creating more money to stimulate their economy.

So, China and the USA juicing up money supply. That is plenty of macro to keep the US dollar down.

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Dollar soft into 2030s

The wave of dollar strength is rolling over, how to ride this break will be commodities.


More on the subject here : 

WallStreet likes a higher dollar as stock commission flow well through their broker accounts, not so much when commodities are the bull in charge. 

USA debt, main street woes and re shoring of manufacturing requires a lower dollar. Even the Pentagon knows it can not off shore missile manufacturing offshore. 



Chart 1 - USD (DXY) to slump over time. 

Chart 2 - CRB will run hot into 2030s.

Chart 3 - Break out to new highs for gold and silver stocks.

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Macro Chart Storm

It is not what you don't know that gets you. It is what you now for sure that is not so, that gets you. Mark Twain.



Chart 1 - Copper stepping higher on expected strong demand vs expected supply issues. 

Chart 2 - When copper out performs gold (red line), bitcoin (black line) is moving higher fast (yellow zones). 

Chart 3 - The true fed balance sheet (red line). The red line includes all the government tricks, and the biggest trick is the Dept Of Treasure issuing TBill's in the trillions. Note the total of $17T for the red line. The biggest economy in the world lives off a quarter to quarter credit card of $10 trillion USD (green line). The reported fed balance sheet is the blue line. 

Chart 4 - Debt spiral watch. When the red line is above the blue line, US debt to GDP (pink line) moves higher fast, or in other words the debt levels explode. Blue line is Nominal GDP (or GDP including inflation). Red line is Real effective interest rate (US 10 yr less inflation) plus US deficits as a percentage of GDP.

Chart 5 - Stock market valuation method. When the red line is above the upper pink line then stock market tops are near. Red line is the NYSE Margin YOY% change with the Shiller SCAPE ratio. Green line is the YOY% change of the Dow Jones. Currently the red line says stocks can go much higher.

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Wyckoff logic working in modern day markets

They say nothing works all the time in markets, well maybe some should review Wyckoff logic.


Quotes:

..“The market always tells you what to do. It tells you: Get in. Get out. Move your stop. Close out. Stay neutral. Wait for a better chance. All these things the market is continually impressing upon you, and you must get into the frame of mind where you are in reality taking your orders from the action of the market itself — from the tape.”...


.."Tape reading is rapid-fire horse sense...The Tape Reader aims to make deductions from each succeeding transaction -- every shift of the market kaleidoscope; to grasp a new situation, force it lightning-like through the weighing machine of the brain and to reach a decision which will be acted upon with coolness and precision"..

Richard D Wyckoff

The longer the base normally leads to a greater prize!


Chart 1 - HMY moving in lock step with the Richard Wyckoff Accumulation plan. 

Chart 2 - The Richard Wyckoff Accumulation map. Notice the change in behaviour of price action.  

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