Stock market cycle look into 2024

The well promoted US recession of 2023 did not happen, but will it happen in 2024.


Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital says the liquidity is supportive of slow growth but no recession in 2024 or 2025.

Technical charts support this view, lets review:


Chart 1 - Shows three sine wave cycle should repeat for a fourth peak in 2025 Q1.

Chart 2 - Shows the Dow Jones working well through Gann Angles, Dow +45,000

Chart 3 - Crazy how the Wall 900 period cycle fits highs and lows.

Chart 4 - Richard Wyckoff Cause and Effect still working until it does it. Will an 'Effect Fail' happen in 2024, the trend says unlikely. But who knows which events will shape the world in the next year.

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Ethereum runs hot on new market liquidity

The US elections attract an easier market; this time there is another incentive to let the juice run.



The US presidential cycle runs for 4 years; the years before and after the election are the most market-friendly to the bulls, as politicians promise the kitchen sink. Typically, the incumbent will do all they can to ensure the economy is doing well before the election; they do this by making the monetary condition easier. One way to do this is to lower the US dollar.



Chart 1: US dollar (DXY)

The blue lines are US election dates (November). Both 2016 and 2020 saw a move to get the US dollar down in the 12 months prior to the election.

During the next 13 months the US Government has to fund the US deficit to the tune of $8 trillion dollars of existing and new debt. This means they need to find $8T USD out in the market place to buy this debt. There are many tricks the FED and TREASURY can do to do this, and one trick to lower the price of the US dollar debt to foreign investor by lowering the currency it is sold in (say DXY near $90), otherwise known as currency debasement.

Bert Dohmen of the Wellington posted this (2023-11-27): 

We just read that the federal government is running its largest deficit as a percentage of GDP outside of WWII period. Another great achievement!

And next year we are likely to see the greatest money creation out of thin air in the entire history of the US. The Fed has to create ways to finance the record deficits by the creation of new money.

That of course has inflationary implications. And that will plunge the bond market again, making the bond disaster even worse. Remember, last time we wrote the global bond market is $128 TRILLION. That is 128 billion times a billion dollars.

We conservatively estimate that they have unrealized paper losses of at least 60%. Therefore, the loss on the global bond market would be a staggering $77 TRILLION!!!

Debasement of the currency is a likely event to massive indebted sovereign states. Investors can protect themselves from this by investing in anti US dollar investment vehicles like: Gold, Silver, Oil, Crypto.



Chart 2 - Ethereum cycle is ready to run on currency debasement.

Chart 3 - Ethereum Channel support and resistance forecast or equal move forecast.

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Bitcoin working through channels

There is no need for complicated indicators when simple price channels will do.


The trick is to have software to draw the parallel price channels with great accuracy. 

We can see here (Chart 1) how two A-B-C channels are forecasting current price support and resistance levels.  


Chart 1 - Bitcoin

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The Dow is going Higher

The market professionals do not want the public positioned in the market better than they are.


Market professionals use the news to scare the public out of their hard earned winning positions. 


Let's face it:
- All the FED tightening has been offset with Dept Treasury and Rev Repo antics.
- Higher US 10 yr rates have caused trillions of book losses on bond investments around the world.
- The FED has broken the most important market in the world, the US Treasury market (Bofa Bond Move index > 140, DXY > 107)
- Inflation is sticky due to food and energy elements, also from monetary stimulus from billions in new interest income.


Unless WW3 or US 10 yr explodes 3% higher (see KINK in chart 1 below), the worst news is over, and now the FED will try and repair the damage done to their own bond market. After all, the US bond market is GOD. US Recession fears are over played while there are ongoing fiscal spending deficits into a US election year. 


Chart 1 - Dow Jones Cycle. Unless there is a kink the Dow should travel sideways to higher.

Chart 2 - The FED can not contain inflation and must bend a knee to it own bond market, on the back of rising gold and silver prices gold stocks still have room to move higher during the current up cycle.

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Uranium Commodity Review

Uranium is taking off, or just doing another major cycle.



Good fundamentals described here: 

Chart 1 - Second cycle up swing in play, say half way.

Chart 2 - Support and Resistance described by parallel channels. 

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US GDP recovery

US GDP is bouncing back, so says the NY FED GDPNow forecast.


Currently the US has theses stats [2023 Q2]:
- US debt to GDP is 120%
- US deficit to GDP is +8% 
- US federal interest expense up 100%

A recession is negative GDP.

The GFC 2008/09 recession was -3% of GDP. Today the deficit is 8% of GDP, currently there is 5% more spending then the GFC crisis. So maybe this is why the GDPNow forecast is forecasting a 3.9% forecast 2023 Q3, on the back of government spending.  



Chart 1 - NY Fed GDP now forecast for 2023 Q3

Chart 2 - If these good forecasts for US GDP continue then we will see a recovery in the US ISM PMI Manufacturing index.

Chart 3 - Silver is likely to recover on the back of recovering US GDP and US ISM PMI.

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Japanese Yen Cycle Review

A regular cycle low has formed on the very important carry trade yen.



Chart 1 - Regular cycle YEN low. As we know the Japanese investors are large investors in US debt, so lets review the US 10 yr cycle. 

Chart 2 - In line with a cycle high in the US 10 year interest rate.

Chart 3 - A pullback in the US 10 year, is likely, so says the copper gold ratio, which will see a rebound in the YEN off the cycle lows. 

Chart 4 - Channel support lines are strong for the yen.

Chart 5 - Sync with a shortage in US dollar funding. Going into US election year, more dollars will be printed you can assume, suggesting US dollar weakness and relief for the yen.

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Global M2 effect on Gold

Money supply growth leads to debt and paper market growth, and eventually the hard stuff catches up in value.

What is M2? 

M2 is a measure of the money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, and other types of deposits that are readily convertible to cash, such as CDs.

Global money growth (M2) converted to US dollar terms, represents the world money supply that can be converted into US dollars and be used for trade and GDP growth. It is the grease that allows the market wheels to turn. Yes, there is a lag between the creation of M2 and its effect on the markets, but the charts below show that new global M2 tends to have an effect on gold and silver. 

When deflation pressures are strong more M2 is created, when inflation is hot M2 is reduced. 


Chart 1 - Global M2 to June 2023

Chart 2 - Global M2 lows on Gold and Silver

Chart 3 - China has a deflation problem. China needs global M2 to grow. Makes you wonder why 101 year old Henry Kissinger and Yellen visited China recently in 2023 H1.

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Crude Oil near $300 plus

If the crude oil price follows its performance of the last 100 years, then a print of $300 plus oil in US dollar terms is on the table in the next decade.


Of course, crude oil priced in US dollars means higher oil prices can be the result of bearish US dollar fundamentals more so than a bullish crude oil fundamentals.

Pulling commercial (light sweet) oil out of the ground can be classified into two groups: easy and hard. Easy is cheap oil production; hard is expensive oil production. The world has enjoyed cheap oil production for decades, and we are now moving into expensive oil production.

Buy the deep corrections are to be considered over the next decade.


Chart 1 - This tweet makes a point, plus it highlights the debate around future oil production. 

Chart 2 - Oil history and price channel forecasts

Chart 3 - Oil long term cycle

Chart 4 - No wonder central banks are buying all that gold. Gold follows oil.

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Bitcoin Time Map

Bitcoin has regularity with calendar day time cycles.


Chart 1 - Simple and true.

Chart 2 - Credit to TradingView. Similar sync.

It is only a matter of time. Some fundamentals.

More BRRRR in 2025 or maybe earlier as the FED has to sell $1.85 trillion of new US Treasuries in 2023 H2. Debt and energy inflation may bring BRRRR forward. Of course if there are massive spending cuts by US congress to reduce debt and inflation that would change the game. Doubt it, US is going into Argentina style fiscal dominance. 

NOTE: Fiscal dominance is when monetary policy is used to manage a countries solvency rather than unemployment or inflation targets. Hence inflation and unemployment levels are sacrificed for the protection of the bond market.

Chart 3 - More BRRRRR to come. 

Chart 4 - BTC is very cyclical.

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US tax receipts hurting the dollar

US tax receipts must continue to grow to fuel the confidence of the US debt markets.


Previous Post: Gold and Oil fundamentals are married together

In chart 1, the red dots marked A to F show the periods where US Federal Tax receipts showed negative growth year over year (YOY). US tax receipts have slowed due to the inflation fighting measures applied by world governments. US inflation has fallen from 9% to 3%. Job done! Now some tight monetary controls can be withdrawn, a lower dollar for one. Each red dot is also timed with a slump (in different degrees) in the US Dollar index (DXY).

POINT: A fall in the US dollar is one of the methods used to inject more US dollar liquidity, or easier money, this tends to be inflationary. A rise in the US dollar removes dollar liquidity, or tighter money, this tends to be deflationary. 

When the US dollar falls, it allows for higher prices for gold and oil. Depending on oil fundamentals at the time, both oil and gold can rise dramatically higher. Tax receipt slumps A, C, D, E, and F enjoyed handsome games on recovery.

Currently YOY% change of US Tax Receipts are negative, this should be followed by a lower US dollar and higher gold and oil prices over the next 6 to 12 months. By how much, we shall see. 



Chart 1 - US dollar, US tax receipts, gold and oil.

Chart 2 - US Dollar Cycle: Plenty of room to move down for the DXY.

Chart 3 - US Dow Jones Cycle: As a falling US dollar is easy money liquidity injection, will it be enough for stocks to move higher in line with 900 day period cycle. Why not!

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Bitcoin chasing dollar weakness

News that Blackrock have high odds to run a bitcoin spot ETF, sparked BTC higher.


Maybe that was the catalyst to spark the bulls. Fundamentals had already shifted months before.

Lets look ...

Chart 1 - The lower US dollar and higher Chinese 10 yr have signaled for a while that bitcoin had room to move higher.

Chart 2 - Standard Wyckoff Accumulation story continues to build. A move to upper resistance would be health and shows the accumulation is still the head line story. 

Chart 3 - Bitcoin weaves it ways through support and resistance channels, like clock work.

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Gold and Oil fundamentals are married together

Crude oil is a very important commodity. Inflation, interest rates, and growth are all affected by it.


Oil shortages lead to higher prices, which leads to higher inflation and higher interest rates. This simple formula highlights that high oil prices are not compatible with high debt levels.

Some points

- Currently the USA federal debt to GDP% is 120%.
- US federal interest payments are likely to be over $1T in 2023 (FYI:US defense budget is $800BN).
- US federal interest payments are elevated during periods of high energy costs.
- Slower growth due to higher interest rates lowers federal tax receipts.
- High government spending while revenues are falling explodes the US federal deficit. 
- A larger US deficit results in more federal debt.
- Rinse and repeat from the top of this list.


Video 1: Significant oil shortages are coming.

Chart 1 : Gold moves higher during periods of energy inflation.

Chart 2: Oil is very Wyckoff accumulation friendly and should be on your watch list.

Chart 3: Gold support and resistance channel lines show the higher targets.

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