Math says Gold is going higher

If you lend money to some one, your primary concern is will the borrower maintains enough income to ensure interest and principle payments to you.
 This is banker math 101.

Lending money to a country requires the same logic.

The red line below (Chart 1) has a simple meaning.
1) Rising : Percentage gains of federal tax receipts are greater than percentage gains of federal debt.
2) Falling : Percentage gains of federal tax receipts are less than percentage gains of federal debt.
3) Pivots : Changes in direction. Resulting in trend changes to gold and the Federal Reserve funds rate.

POINT: If the red line is rising the lenders of money to the USA are confident of interest payments, if the red line is falling confidence in receiving interest payments declines, or a sovereign debt crisis!

Lets review major pivot periods.

2001: Tax receipts collapsed going into US recession of 2001/02*
2007: Tax receipts collapsed going into US recession of 2008/09*
2015: Tax receipts collapsed going into the slump of 2016 (China slow down, US Elections)*
2023: Pending: Tax receipts are forecast to collapse in 2023 H2 (see 2s10s yield curve recession forecast)

* In these years US debt to GDP moved higher after initial slow down.


Chart 1

The red line in the chart 1 highlights the forecasting of federal tax receipts and debt are very important to the trends of gold and federal funds rate. @LukeGromen (twitter) monitors tax receipts (chart 2), and the trend leader for US tax receipts is California, USA. Forecast is that tax receipts are falling hard.

POINT: This means the red line is about to fall hard starting ion 2023 Q1, just like the other years quoted above. Good for gold, and it will also force the FED to cut the FED Funds rate.

Chart 2

Falling tax receipts with out massive spending cuts results in more debt (chart 3). Just when the rest of the world does not want to buy US debt. This may force the FED to be the buyer of last resort once more.

Chart 3

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Copper showing strength

Troubles in Peru copper mines, massive future EV demand, China reopening, copper will prove to be a metal in demand.


A 10 sec look at charts says copper is moving higher, price and volume waves looks bullish, that is higher volume on the upswings than down swings. Time for investors to find copper like investments to enjoy the ride.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Chart 3

Chart 4

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Bitcoin accumulation is real

Richard Wyckoff told his students think of waves of price and volume. This in short is the essence of tape reading.


There are not many books which actually assist money making, yet Tim Ord book below certainly helped this site. 

In the book above Tim Ord expands Richard Wyckoff logic and how to review a chart waves of price and volume. Lets use bticoin as an example (code is within readtheticker.com Analysis chart, more examples here)

The chart below uses a fixed bar period to form a 'price wave' and sums up the raw volume for each price wave. Up price waves are blue, down price waves are red.

To expand further, lets examine the consolidations A and B.

Consolidation A shows red volume higher than blue volume, blue volume is not substantial at all, hence there was little demand, little accumulation, and the consolidation result was one of re distribution to lower prices. 

Consolidation B shows blue volume higher than red volume, blue volume is substantial, hence there is solid demand, strong accumulation, and this consolidation is leaning to pure accumulation which is likely to lead to higher prices (of course this pattern does not mean a spike to a new low, like a terminal shake out, is not off the table). 

For those not interested in Wyckoff wizardary charts then here is a fundamental chart. Chinese juice and the change in BTC price.

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Bitcoin has found its natural vibration

Gann said everything finds its natural vibration, its manner, its own characteristics.

W D Gann's superlative skill was his ability to forecast accurately the stock and commodity markets. His forecasting method was based upon what he called the Law of Vibration. Almost a hundred years (August 8th 1908) ago Gann made this most important discoveries, if not his most important discovery.

W D Gann Quote (Ticker Interview, more here)

..“Vibration is fundamental; nothing is exempt from this law; it is universal, therefore applicable to every class of phenomena on the globe"…."After years of patient study I have proven to my entire satisfaction, as well as demonstrated to others, that vibration explains every possible phase and condition of the market”..

In the chart below, you can see price bouncing off walls of support and resistance (red channel lines), this shows price has 'managed moves', completed by very large players.

Of course channels can change over time, and move on different price angles (speed of advance). You can find these channels by simple trial and error over price. The more hits of price near support and resistance the more likely you have found the channel that is dominate.

Yes you can do the same with sine wave cycle analysis, but here we are using channels. 


Chart 1 - BTC weekly 

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