Monday 30 March 2020

Big moving Averages and macro investment decisions

When price is falling every one wonders where demand will come in.
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RTT black screen Tv videos study the simplest measure of price (simple moving average). What has happen before guides us now. 










Original Post: https://ift.tt/39taQGG

Friday 20 March 2020

Cycle Trading - Funny when it comes due

Non believers of cycles become fast believers when the heat of the moment is upon them.
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Just has we have birthdays, so does the market, regular cycles of time and price. The market news of the cycle turn may change each time, but the time is regular. Markets are not a random walk.


Success comes from strategy and the execution of a plan.











Original Post: https://ift.tt/2QzPd0D

Wednesday 18 March 2020

US c19 - You anit see nothing yet!

New York is just discovering their c19 status! While the stock market goes NO BID!
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Ref : NYC Reports 532 New Cases, 11 Deaths As Residents Brace For Citywide Quarantine: Live Updates

Place your bets for: San Francisco, Chicago, Los Angeles, New Jersey


Here is c19 theme song! Baby, you have not seen nothing yet.








The US news flow will fuel more HFT shorting for a few months yet! While the FED works out they have no effect against job losses, virus explosion or human nature. No wonder CEO were resigning the most in history. Remember the days when they said HFT adds to liquidity, yeah that was BS!

Get your popcorn!

Original Post: https://ift.tt/2vtK8Q2

Tuesday 17 March 2020

RTT browsing latest..

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.
image1 The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Thursday, 17 October 2019, 09:38:56 PM



Comment: Ooops!



Date Found: Friday, 18 October 2019, 03:20:39 AM



Comment: 50% drop in SP500, so says Yield Curve Inversion



Date Found: Sunday, 20 October 2019, 05:25:58 AM



Comment: Answer QE4 (Dow 38000)



Date Found: Monday, 21 October 2019, 06:18:45 PM



Comment: CEO Confidence vs Jobless Claims - Folks are about to get fired!



Date Found: Wednesday, 23 October 2019, 06:14:18 PM



Comment: Yip! You know a dollar crisis is coming when Germany starts to bet against the dollar by buying gold!



Date Found: Friday, 25 October 2019, 05:42:58 PM



Comment: Soft US employment is coming in the months ahead



Date Found: Saturday, 26 October 2019, 12:06:55 AM



Comment: Buy backs make the PE way over hyped!



Date Found: Tuesday, 29 October 2019, 09:42:48 PM



Comment: Hmm lack of confidence in higher stock prices



Date Found: Wednesday, 30 October 2019, 01:19:26 AM



Comment: First time ever (bottom panel at 100%). Data starts in 1956.



Date Found: Tuesday, 12 November 2019, 05:01:21 PM



Comment: EuroDollar warning continues ..



Date Found: Tuesday, 12 November 2019, 06:26:59 PM



Comment: Jesse Felder 'Historically, the S



Date Found: Thursday, 21 November 2019, 09:00:04 PM



Comment: Nearly to DEFCON 1



Date Found: Sunday, 24 November 2019, 04:50:13 AM



Comment: Market Top picker is still working ...



Date Found: Monday, 02 December 2019, 05:59:40 PM



Comment: 2020 could be a winner, or is it political!



Date Found: Friday, 06 December 2019, 07:08:14 AM



Comment: Mega rich boat buying freeze!



Original Post: https://ift.tt/2QoWyQq

Monday 16 March 2020

Cause and Effect Trading - Now is the time

Opportunities are presenting themselves for the new trends on the other side of this global liquidation.
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Here are some stories on the Cause and Effect trading ideas this site is watching.












Original Post: https://ift.tt/2vpIUFt

Saturday 14 March 2020

Bticoin Crash Big Channel Review

Is bitcoin digital gold? Well 2020 will tell us if this is true. Should you double up?
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First you must congratulate bitcoin (and litecoin) for how liquid it is, well done!

So what happens next.

Do you invest for the sci fi world coming on the back of new fancy tech which will use just in time internet money any where in the world ? Will you trust banks once the great crash of 2020 is over? Will governments despite for economic activity remove taxation burdens to allow tax free transactions.

Who knows! This blog is bullish, but it will take time, so monies invested now may take 3 to 5 years to grow.

What we do know is Bitcoin has a trending relationship with the green channel in the chart below, and so far it is holding. So keep your powder dry in the next few weeks to ensure it does hold, and watch late into 2020 when prices should advance into 2021.

Big Channel review.


BTC1




Close up look.


BTC2



Original Post: https://ift.tt/2Wd0J5G

Australia to enter a very sad period - Its started!

Well it has started, South Pacific living off China is not going to work out so good! Over capacity, plus housing market debt will be adjusted down.
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Previous post here, and original here


Sure this blog started this story in 2013, since then the Aussie AORD went from 5250 to 7250, and now it is down to 5000. So if you could squeeze out 50% gains and keep it, well done. But if you could not get out you are bust. Notice the rapid and unforgiving decline, how any one got out with a large position is any ones guess.

Of course some stocks may buck the trend, keep an eye on dividend paying gold stocks like Newcrest Mining, symbol - NCM


AORD




Original Post: https://ift.tt/39U5bKO

Friday 13 March 2020

Gann Angles - Crash Market Observations

A selection of charts of what is going on, and lets face it even the king of the jungle can get in trouble.
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Jesse Livermore quote

...“NEVER BUY A STOCK BECAUSE IT HAS HAD A BIG DECLINE FROM ITS PREVIOUS HIGH”...



Dow Gann Angle Chart: A pause is expected around $20,000 - $22,000. but below $18,000 no one is safe. After such a rapid and steep decline stock charts are broken every where. Repair will take a 6 months to 12 months (if economics improve), the next three months will be filled with margin selling and portfolio adjustments. The main  point is the lows have not been found, and of course if the C19 virus disruption continues beyond 3 to 6 months then world GDP will be strangled down to deep recession levels and the stock markets will reflect this shock. In truth NO ONE KNOWS!



Dow Gann




Stocks like StarBuks made fortunes for some, but now, massive run ups, have massive corrections.



SBUX GANN




Gold is acting as it should, nice 5 up, now a decent correction as expected. 


GLD




Like gold margin selling is hurting bitcoin, gold, silver, and related stocks. A bottom will be found in the next 3 months and the new trends will be begin in bitcoin gold, silver and related stocks. Of course this depend on how low the wider risk on markets go and how fast.


XAU


Great change brings great opportunity for those with deep pockets.





Original Post: https://ift.tt/33ioaw8

Thursday 12 March 2020

Dow 2020 Crash Watch - Update

As expected reality was to knock on the door of everything priced to perfection, but is the panic selling done yet?
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Quote



Previous Post Dow 2020 Crash Watch Dow, Three strikes and your out!

Today's smash was expected after TRUMP made this virus a real thing. But you can also bet that the Treasury dept new what TRUMP was going to say and they had their targeted naked shorts to get money out of securities the do not want leading trends in the near future, like gold, silver and crypto currencies. 

Today is a rush to cash. Now the central bodies have Friday and the weekend to slow the panic, organise a defense and cause consolidation, just like 1929, 1987, 1937

Update: FED prints $1.5 trillion, just like that!

Recession stocks like DG, WMT and COST are trading better than gold, go figure. 

Some charts.


DIA





Looks like the big boys stayed out of this last rally, smart money was way ahead of the crowd.



NYSE margin



Just like 2008 contagion selling hit gold, for 1 monthly bar (maybe 2 this time), now we watch for the smart money to accumulate in the strong trends for the next 12 months. Our bet gold, silver, bonds and crypto will be attractive to the smart money once the margin calls and panic selling is done in the next few weeks.


GLD



Original Post: https://ift.tt/2TJ85MI

Saturday 7 March 2020

Dow 2020 Crash Watch

This is now on the table. Let us review three prior Dow volatility shocks.
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But first let us remind you of the Sabbatical Cycle (previous post Shemitah Study

Re post of the 7 year cycle chart below. Take 2015 add on 7 equals 2022, which suggests if a bear market does a occur a low maybe found in 2022. In 2015 we had a 12% sell off just prior to the 2016 US elections. 


Cycle




Back to main topic ..


The most volatile years in the Dow over the last 100 years are: 1929, 1937, 1987

Currently the Vix is above 35, and if this continues to stay high then the crash risk remains.

Fundamentals: The virus effect in the USA is to get worse, and with risk assets priced to perfection a quick and violent adjustment is set to reset prices, or worse begin a deep trend to lower prices.

Of course the need for cash will explode and contagion selling will occur. Please notice how GOLD is not acting like it did in the 2008 GFC crisis. Gold may escape contagion selling, and what does that tell you.



2020




1987




1937




1929




Original Post: https://ift.tt/2IvanII