We are financial market enthusiasts using methods expressed by the Gann, Hurst and Wyckoff with a few of our own proprietary tools. Readtheticker.com provides online stock and index charts with commentary. We are not brokers, bankers, financial planners, hedge fund traders or investment advisors, we are private investors.
The best wisdom is sourced from those who have grey hair.
Every thing cycles. True, cycles are not perfect timers, but they do provide a warning.
Chart 1 - Dow Jones 100 year cycle: Currently we are in the decade to expect a major Dow cycle peak (2025 to 20350. Both the Panic of 1837 and the 1929 Wall Street crash were following a period of great reflation. Great excess lead to a bust. Excess due to the huge creation of money supply and easy finance. Sounds like 2009 to now, does it not !
Chart 2 - SP500 Cycles: The first cycle peak risk period is 2027 to 2029, the second is 2033 to 2035. The first cycle period has a presidential election with in it at 2028. Remember 2008 GFC crisis! SP500 cycles show sub cycles within the Dow Jones 100 year cycle.
David Hunter thinking is worth a follow and review, as the above cycles support his views.
War open the doors to explosive debt, more so if a war goes on longer than expected.
War is a battle of resources, he who runs out of stuff first, loses. No matter if its arrows, bullets or missiles.
Chart 1 - Gold trend is about to explode higher. Of course if gold and silver are the new momentum pump you can expect crypto to be still on hold in the waiting room. Place your bets!
Question: Why was the crypto cycle of 2025/26 such a dud!
Answer: Short answer. Japanese yen weakness.
Long answer.
(1) The effect of the JPY weakness due to Japanese debt spiral dynamics.
(2) Chinese housing deflation.
(3) US interest rates are to high on tariff fears.
Asian speculators have not fueled mind-blowing crypto prices, and have enjoyed the speculation in silver and gold as a replacement.
Fixes:
(1) The BOJ [and the FED] buys Japanese bonds to avoid a global debt spiral collapse, the result will be US dollar (DXY) < 85, and a stronger Japanese currency (JPY).
(2) The PBOC prints more money, and Xi encourages investment in gold to offset consumer housing value losses.
(3) The FED cuts rates as inflation did not appear (yet) and US dollar (DXY) < 90.
POINT: The quick fix is the DXY down hard!
Before the charts below, here is a rule to understand.
Rule: Gold moves higher when there is stress in the global debt finance. Bitcoin moves higher when the stress in global debt finance is released.
Chart 1 - Bitcoin moves up in price fast when the Chinese economy runs hot (no financial stress). This is expressed by the Chinese 10 yr interest rate (CNY10) ratio to the US Dollar (DXY). The Chinese 10 yr rate rises when the economy overheats.
The red line (A) below has been sideways during 2025, expressing no excitement in the Chinese economy (financial stress present). No excitement to send Bitcoin to the moon.
Chart 2 - Japanese currency (JPY) weakness removes export power (and economic power) from the Chinese economy. During the Bitcoin rallies in 2018 and 2021, the Chinese currency (CNY) started much weaker than the Japanese currency (JPY), and when strength arrived to the Chinese currency, the Bitcoin rally ended.
Chart 3 - Japanese debt spiral risk has sent the Japanese currency down. Rising 10 yr interest rates while inflation is mute have shown a lack of confidence in the Japanese bond market and investors are expecting massive central bank intervention to avoid a global debt spiral.
Time to calculate targets based on a measured move for gold and silver.
Chart 1 - Gold chart from 1971 (Nixon gold standard exit). Clear shows strong resistance near $6,000 to $10,000. Of course $20,000 is there as well, can not imagine pricing getting there this time. Notice how price bounces between arc's and Gann angles.
Chart 2 - Silver using measure move targets
Chart 3 - China forecast for more money printing. Add this to USA reflation suggest 2026 is going to be HOT for the economy.
