Bitcoin slump!

Question: Why was the crypto cycle of 2025/26 such a dud!



Answer: Short answer. Japanese yen weakness.

Long answer.

        (1) The effect of the JPY weakness due to Japanese debt spiral dynamics.
        (2) Chinese housing deflation.
        (3) US interest rates are to high on tariff fears.

Asian speculators have not fueled mind-blowing crypto prices, and have enjoyed the speculation in silver and gold as a replacement. 

Fixes:
(1) The BOJ [and the FED] buys Japanese bonds to avoid a global debt spiral collapse, the result will be US dollar (DXY) < 85, and a stronger Japanese currency (JPY). 
(2) The PBOC prints more money, and Xi encourages investment in gold to offset consumer housing value losses. 
(3) The FED cuts rates as inflation did not appear (yet) and US dollar (DXY) < 90.

POINT: The quick fix is the DXY down hard!

Before the charts below, here is a rule to understand. 

Rule: Gold moves higher when there is stress in the global debt finance. Bitcoin moves higher when the stress in global debt finance is released. 


Chart 1 - Bitcoin moves up in price fast when the Chinese economy runs hot (no financial stress). This is expressed by the Chinese 10 yr interest rate (CNY10) ratio to the US Dollar (DXY). The Chinese 10 yr rate rises when the economy overheats.

The red line (A) below has been sideways during 2025, expressing no excitement in the Chinese economy (financial stress present). No excitement to send Bitcoin to the moon.  

Chart 2 - Japanese currency (JPY) weakness removes export power (and economic power) from the Chinese economy. During the Bitcoin rallies in 2018 and 2021, the Chinese currency (CNY) started much weaker than the Japanese currency (JPY), and when strength arrived to the Chinese currency, the Bitcoin rally ended.

Chart 3 - Japanese debt spiral risk has sent the Japanese currency down. Rising 10 yr interest rates while inflation is mute have shown a lack of confidence in the Japanese bond market and investors are expecting massive central bank intervention to avoid a global debt spiral. 

More on the Japanese debt risk. 

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