Silver volume says something is near boiling point

Fundamentals are important, but they must show up in the chart.
And when they do and if they may matter, it is a good sign if price and volume waves show a change of character.

The Point and Figure chart below is readtheticker.com version of PnF chart format, it is designed to highlight price and volume waves clearly (notice the Volume Hills chart).

Silver ETF volume is screaming at us! The price volatility along with volume tells us those who have not cared, are starting to, those who are wrong are adjusting, and those who are correct are loading up. Soon the kettle will blow and the price of silver will be over $20. 

Normally silver suffers in a recession, maybe this time with trillions of paper money being created real money is the fundamental factor which becomes a higher priority over the demand for silver use in industry.

The silver short term cycle (red) looks like the bottom is in, while the longer term cycle (black) looks higher into the next 24 months.

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Is this your local response to COVID 19

This is off topic, but a bit of fun!



This is the standard reaction from the control freaks.

This the song for post lock down!

What should be made mandatory? Vaccines, hell NO! This should be mandatory: Every one taking their tops off in the sun, they do in Africa!

Guess which family gets more Vitamin D and eats less sugary carbs, TV Show

Vitamin D and c19, latest studies make Vitamin D critical to minimising effects of c19.

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US dollar Review

The US dollar rally is like seeing a black cat run underneath a ladder while your climbing onto the roof, disaster is coming!


There are plenty of trades around Gann Angles on the US dollar.

More here

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SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review

Early 2020 the fear was the human race 'David' may suffer terribly under a frightening new flu (COVID 19) 'Goliath', well after few short months it is now clear the human race will win this trial by combat.


Previous Post: SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review

In the previous post the blog said (part 1)

.."We must conclude the major 900 period low is now in, and we are now in a up swing, which may top out ate 2020 or late 2021. Any future top out may only generate a 10% to 20% correction, of course this can be deemed very mild. This is expected, but the expected does not always play out."...

Well it sure did not, the flu lock downs around the world turned off economic activity and crushed the risk on asset price move. The end result is we finally got a true SP500 Kitchin low which we needed to finish the 900 daily cycle. (charts below). The result is some sort of short term US recession can be expected.

In the previous post the blog said (part 2)

.."Rolling the dice to get '7' does not always work. Post US elections seasonal's aligned with a poor start of the decade seasonal trends, add on high global recession risk, add on a stock market slump tends to occur in the years ending 9,1,2,3,4 (like 1973, 1982, 1991, 2001, 2009 are all recession years), markets may get very interesting."...

This still holds true, and we are not there yet.

Reminder ..

As a Wyckoff logic proponent we have to respect the demand behind the good volume little 'a' rally (chart below), because it made it easily into and passed the middle ground of the prior consolidation without attracting huge supply. This has to be considered a strength (minor strength, and yes demand is present).

Yes the price smash down from 'B' to 'C' was a typical sign of weakness of a serious note, but this like anything can be (temporary some say) over ruled. To be sure the little 'a' rally is true demand we must expect a successful test to little 'b' to ensure no supply is present, and once the supply judder bars are clear then its open season for a major strength move to little 'c'.

The coming little 'b' and 'c' moves will tell us (and volume behind them) if demand is healthy, but until then current price action has to be considered bullish [subject to little 'b' test confirmation of course].

Little 'b' test should not take out the low of big 'C', even better if it does not take out the low of big 'A', holding above 2600 would be even better. 

The fundamentals behind the little a-b-c would be simply the bad news is known (kitchen sink news) and the market liquidity (via the FED) will find a home in risk on assets. The 2020 bearish smash is a bust rather than a crash starting a economic depression. Time will tell. 

The Kitchin cycle has to be respected because as the historic DOW chart below shows it works.

The Kitchin cycle is a typical 900 period daily cycle (below the blog uses 880).

The chart above shows the fixed wall Kitchin cycle with the adaptive to price sine wave cycle via RTT custom indicator RTTHurstDPO.

The cycle charts suggest the real bearish market fun starts after 2020 year end.

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