Currently the US has theses stats [2023 Q2]:
- US debt to GDP is 120%
- US deficit to GDP is +8%
- US federal interest expense up 100%
A recession is negative GDP.
The GFC 2008/09 recession was -3% of GDP. Today the deficit is 8% of GDP, currently there is 5% more spending then the GFC crisis. So maybe this is why the GDPNow forecast is forecasting a 3.9% forecast 2023 Q3, on the back of government spending.
Chart 1 - NY Fed GDP now forecast for 2023 Q3
Chart 2 - If these good forecasts for US GDP continue then we will see a recovery in the US ISM PMI Manufacturing index.
Chart 3 - Silver is likely to recover on the back of recovering US GDP and US ISM PMI.
Original Post: https://ift.tt/XoUy38t
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