Saturday 2 September 2023

Japanese Yen Cycle Review

A regular cycle low has formed on the very important carry trade yen.
image1


Chart 1 - Regular cycle YEN low. As we know the Japanese investors are large investors in US debt, so lets review the US 10 yr cycle. 

Cycle




Chart 2 - In line with a cycle high in the US 10 year interest rate.


TNX




Chart 3 - A pullback in the US 10 year, is likely, so says the copper gold ratio, which will see a rebound in the YEN off the cycle lows. 


Gold




Chart 4 - Channel support lines are strong for the yen.

Support




Chart 5 - Sync with a shortage in US dollar funding. Going into US election year, more dollars will be printed you can assume, suggesting US dollar weakness and relief for the yen.

Dollar




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