SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review

The biggest known news date in the next 18 months is the US Election. The biggest unknown news date is when the US believes it is in a economic recession.


The Kitchin Cycle is still working.


We must conclude the major 900 period low is now in, and we are now in a up swing, which may top out ate 2020 or late 2021. Any future top out may only generate a 10% to 20% correction, of course this can be deemed very mild. This is expected, but the expected does always play out. 


Rolling the dice to get '7' does not always work. Post US elections seasonal's aligned with a poor start of the decade seasonal trends, add on high global recession risk, add on a stock market slump tends to occur in the years ending 9,1,2,3,4 (like 1973, 1982, 1991, 2001, 2009 are all recession years), markets may get very interesting.

We will continue to watch the Kitchin cycle with interest. 

The pullbacks in the SP500 have really tested below 20% over the 10+ year period. This very strange for such a long period of time, is it the algo's or the FED's trading team. Who knows! However the point is if price ever gets below 20% on a weekly close then you can bet the following sell off will be spectacular. 

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