Saturday, 8 March 2025

Mining stocks higher into 2026 Mid terms

Trump wants the House and Senate to remain with the Republicans for his full 4 years.
image1

To do this, Trump must get the American dream back on track during 2026. On the back of a lower oil price, tame inflation, with consumer demand shooting higher. This means he wants the US dollar down, interest rates down, oil down. The big three all at once, wow!

However, during the second half of 2025 a massive period of US debt refinancing is in his way ($13T or more), to overcome this, Trump needs a lower US Treasury 10 year interest rate, this is why oil and inflation must be tame, and maybe the economy a little soft or recession lite.

No wonder Trump wants the Russian war over, because Russian oil back on the market will help with his goals. 

Also, Trump is forcing more fiscal military spending and more debt onto European nations. This means European interest rates will rise. This will move the $EURO higher and the $USD lower as interest rates adjust as the world realises Europe's free military ride is over.  

China is in a slump. They want the world to have lower financing costs, so the world can buy more Chinese goods. To do this the US dollar must be lower. Xi and Trump will be doing a nice deal in May 2025. 

Of course a lower US dollar, with lower world financing costs is great for Technology and Crypto holdings. 

A good summary by Louis-Vincent Gave (Founding Partner & Chief Executive Officer of Gavekel).





Gold and silver miners need two things: Higher metal prices (on a lower US dollar) and cheaper energy costs. This will ensure profit margins are healthy. Which means higher prices for XAU, GOLD and SILVER.

Of course prices will not move in a straight line, many wobbles before prices reach there peak.

Chart 1 - XAU 


XAU



Chart 2 - Silver

Silver



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Thursday, 30 January 2025

Gold warning signal just fired

Gold knows something is up, or in other terms the bankers who have been buying tonnes of gold do.
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WARNING SIGNAL SUMMARY LIST
When ever the blue line crosses the magenta line some sort of crisis is known.
This means GOLD YOY% change is out pacing COPPER YOY%.

1990 - Oil price shock, Iraq invasion of Kuwait (Recession)
1993 - Mexico / Orange County
1996 - Asian crisis
1998 - Russia/LTCM
2002 - Enron, DotCom bust (Recession)
2008 - Housing bubble burts, Enron (Recession)
2012 - US Credit down grade
2017 - Corp Credit Bust
2020 - COVID shock
2025 - ?


What could it be in 2025/26 ?

If you read this article by Lyn Alden then you probably need not go any further. Full Steam Ahead: All Aboard Fiscal Dominance.

During the 2025 calendar year the USA must refinance approx $13T of existing debt at rates at least twice as high as is currently set. 

So ... money printing is near!


Gold



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Saturday, 4 January 2025

Dow Jones Long Cycle Review

The big cycle of the Dow is still working, and it should be a good year in 2025.
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Chart 1 - The 100 plus year of the Dow Jones Industrial's.

Note: Draw with readtheticker.com cycle software.


Dow jones cycle





Chart 2 - A close up of the above cycle since 2009, and its working quite well. The Dow will most likely creep along the upper blue line to +50,000.



Dow jones cycle 2





Chart 3 - 2025 is also the post election cycle year. President Trump will need to make good on promises to go into the midterms, so you can bet he wants a happy time for his first year (of his second term). 


Cycle





Chart 4 - Bitcoin cycle looks strong into 2025. Bitcoin is a global liquidity measure and it looks bullish as we all know the USA needs to refinance 33% of its debt in 2025 (about $13T). To to do this the world needs to be flooded with US dollar liquidity. They will do what ever it takes to refinance, otherwise the $USD will soar and risk on assets will sink. 


BTC Cycle





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