Monday, 7 July 2025

Macro Chart Storm

It is not what you don't know that gets you. It is what you now for sure that is not so, that gets you. Mark Twain.
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Chart 1 - Copper stepping higher on expected strong demand vs expected supply issues. 

Copper




Chart 2 - When copper out performs gold (red line), bitcoin (black line) is moving higher fast (yellow zones). 

Copper to BTC



Chart 3 - The true fed balance sheet (red line). The red line includes all the government tricks, and the biggest trick is the Dept Of Treasure issuing TBill's in the trillions. Note the total of $17T for the red line. The biggest economy in the world lives off a quarter to quarter credit card of $10 trillion USD (green line). The reported fed balance sheet is the blue line. 

Fed Bal sheet



Chart 4 - Debt spiral watch. When the red line is above the blue line, US debt to GDP (pink line) moves higher fast, or in other words the debt levels explode. Blue line is Nominal GDP (or GDP including inflation). Red line is Real effective interest rate (US 10 yr less inflation) plus US deficits as a percentage of GDP.


Dent spiral



Chart 5 - Stock market valuation method. When the red line is above the upper pink line then stock market tops are near. Red line is the NYSE Margin YOY% change with the Shiller SCAPE ratio. Green line is the YOY% change of the Dow Jones. Currently the red line says stocks can go much higher.


Valuation




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