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Date Found: Thursday, 17 October 2019, 09:38:56 PM

Comment: Ooops!

Date Found: Friday, 18 October 2019, 03:20:39 AM

Comment: 50% drop in SP500, so says Yield Curve Inversion

Date Found: Sunday, 20 October 2019, 05:25:58 AM

Comment: Answer QE4 (Dow 38000)

Date Found: Monday, 21 October 2019, 06:18:45 PM

Comment: CEO Confidence vs Jobless Claims - Folks are about to get fired!

Date Found: Wednesday, 23 October 2019, 06:14:18 PM

Comment: Yip! You know a dollar crisis is coming when Germany starts to bet against the dollar by buying gold!

Date Found: Friday, 25 October 2019, 05:42:58 PM

Comment: Soft US employment is coming in the months ahead

Date Found: Saturday, 26 October 2019, 12:06:55 AM

Comment: Buy backs make the PE way over hyped!

Date Found: Tuesday, 29 October 2019, 09:42:48 PM

Comment: Hmm lack of confidence in higher stock prices

Date Found: Wednesday, 30 October 2019, 01:19:26 AM

Comment: First time ever (bottom panel at 100%). Data starts in 1956.

Date Found: Tuesday, 12 November 2019, 05:01:21 PM

Comment: EuroDollar warning continues ..

Date Found: Tuesday, 12 November 2019, 06:26:59 PM

Comment: Jesse Felder 'Historically, the S

Date Found: Thursday, 21 November 2019, 09:00:04 PM

Comment: Nearly to DEFCON 1

Date Found: Sunday, 24 November 2019, 04:50:13 AM

Comment: Market Top picker is still working ...

Date Found: Monday, 02 December 2019, 05:59:40 PM

Comment: 2020 could be a winner, or is it political!

Date Found: Friday, 06 December 2019, 07:08:14 AM

Comment: Mega rich boat buying freeze!

Original Post: https://ift.tt/2QoWyQq

Cause and Effect Trading - Now is the time

Opportunities are presenting themselves for the new trends on the other side of this global liquidation.



Here are some stories on the Cause and Effect trading ideas this site is watching.

Original Post: https://ift.tt/2vpIUFt

Bticoin Crash Big Channel Review

Is bitcoin digital gold? Well 2020 will tell us if this is true. Should you double up?


First you must congratulate bitcoin (and litecoin) for how liquid it is, well done!

So what happens next.

Do you invest for the sci fi world coming on the back of new fancy tech which will use just in time internet money any where in the world ? Will you trust banks once the great crash of 2020 is over? Will governments despite for economic activity remove taxation burdens to allow tax free transactions.

Who knows! This blog is bullish, but it will take time, so monies invested now may take 3 to 5 years to grow.

What we do know is Bitcoin has a trending relationship with the green channel in the chart below, and so far it is holding. So keep your powder dry in the next few weeks to ensure it does hold, and watch late into 2020 when prices should advance into 2021.

Big Channel review.

Close up look.

Original Post: https://ift.tt/2Wd0J5G

Australia to enter a very sad period - Its started!

Well it has started, South Pacific living off China is not going to work out so good! Over capacity, plus housing market debt will be adjusted down.


Previous post here, and original here


Sure this blog started this story in 2013, since then the Aussie AORD went from 5250 to 7250, and now it is down to 5000. So if you could squeeze out 50% gains and keep it, well done. But if you could not get out you are bust. Notice the rapid and unforgiving decline, how any one got out with a large position is any ones guess.

Of course some stocks may buck the trend, keep an eye on dividend paying gold stocks like Newcrest Mining, symbol - NCM. 

Original Post: https://ift.tt/39U5bKO

Gann Angles - Crash Market Observations

A selection of charts of what is going on, and lets face it even the king of the jungle can get in trouble.


Jesse Livermore quote

...“NEVER BUY A STOCK BECAUSE IT HAS HAD A BIG DECLINE FROM ITS PREVIOUS HIGH”...

Dow Gann Angle Chart: A pause is expected around $20,000 - $22,000. but below $18,000 no one is safe. After such a rapid and steep decline stock charts are broken every where. Repair will take a 6 months to 12 months (if economics improve), the next three months will be filled with margin selling and portfolio adjustments. The main  point is the lows have not been found, and of course if the C19 virus disruption continues beyond 3 to 6 months then world GDP will be strangled down to deep recession levels and the stock markets will reflect this shock. In truth NO ONE KNOWS!

Stocks like StarBuks made fortunes for some, but now, massive run ups, have massive corrections.

Gold is acting as it should, nice 5 up, now a decent correction as expected. 

Like gold margin selling is hurting bitcoin, gold, silver, and related stocks. A bottom will be found in the next 3 months and the new trends will be begin in bitcoin gold, silver and related stocks. Of course this depend on how low the wider risk on markets go and how fast.

Great change brings great opportunity for those with deep pockets.





Original Post: https://ift.tt/33ioaw8

Dow 2020 Crash Watch - Update

As expected reality was to knock on the door of everything priced to perfection, but is the panic selling done yet?

Previous Post Dow 2020 Crash Watch , Dow, Three strikes and your out!

Today's smash was expected after TRUMP made this virus a real thing. But you can also bet that the Treasury dept new what TRUMP was going to say and they had their targeted naked shorts to get money out of securities the do not want leading trends in the near future, like gold, silver and crypto currencies. 

Today is a rush to cash. Now the central bodies have Friday and the weekend to slow the panic, organise a defense and cause consolidation, just like 1929, 1987, 1937

Update: FED prints $1.5 trillion, just like that!

Recession stocks like DG, WMT and COST are trading better than gold, go figure. 

Some charts.

Looks like the big boys stayed out of this last rally, smart money was way ahead of the crowd.

Just like 2008 contagion selling hit gold, for 1 monthly bar (maybe 2 this time), now we watch for the smart money to accumulate in the strong trends for the next 12 months. Our bet gold, silver, bonds and crypto will be attractive to the smart money once the margin calls and panic selling is done in the next few weeks.

Original Post: https://ift.tt/2TJ85MI

Dow 2020 Crash Watch

This is now on the table. Let us review three prior Dow volatility shocks.


But first let us remind you of the Sabbatical Cycle (previous post Shemitah Study) 

Re post of the 7 year cycle chart below. Take 2015 add on 7 equals 2022, which suggests if a bear market does a occur a low maybe found in 2022. In 2015 we had a 12% sell off just prior to the 2016 US elections. 

Back to main topic ..


The most volatile years in the Dow over the last 100 years are: 1929, 1937, 1987

Currently the Vix is above 35, and if this continues to stay high then the crash risk remains.

Fundamentals: The virus effect in the USA is to get worse, and with risk assets priced to perfection a quick and violent adjustment is set to reset prices, or worse begin a deep trend to lower prices.

Of course the need for cash will explode and contagion selling will occur. Please notice how GOLD is not acting like it did in the 2008 GFC crisis. Gold may escape contagion selling, and what does that tell you.

Original Post: https://ift.tt/2IvanII

Dow, Three strikes and your out!

The Dow has topped out with major events, the current virus could be the third strike!


2001 - 9/11 Twin Towers
2007 - Bear Sterns
2020 (?) - C19 Virus


Chart explains all. Dow Jones Industrial's comparing market tops 2000, 2007 and 2020.

Original Post: https://ift.tt/38biFjk

Oil cycle leads the stock cycle

Sure correlation is not causation, but this chart should be known by you.


We all know the world economy was waiting for a pin to prick the 'everything bubble', but no one had any idea of what the pin would look like.

Hence this is why the story of the black swan is so relevant.

There is massive debt behind the record high stock markets, there so much debt the political will required to allow central banks to print trillions to cover losses will likely effect elections. The point is printing money to cover billions is unlikely to upset anyone, however printing trillions will. In 2007 it was billions, in 202X it will be trillions. Yeah, get that passed the community who wants a roads or hospitals versus bailing out investment banks for a second time in a few decades. 

The 2020 virus may not be the Spanish flue (lets hope so), however its effects on highlighting how weak the world supply chain is as well as the increased risk of a human deadly virus is more prevalent and more so how poorly the health services react to a crisis. This means there will be a 'structural change' on how things go forward. Supply chains will become more local, less centralized, consumer physical goods may require virus protection manufacturing process. This will all cost more, therefore higher prices and maybe even a inflation shock is in the future.

Inflation is the one thing which can rock the 'bubble' world. Why? Who can control the long end of the bond market, well no one. Remember when the US 10 year hit 3.2% (Nov 2018) and the world could not handle it, forcing the FED to stop QT and start QE (via repo market).      

A famous quote, highlighting the power of the bond market:

In the 1990s, the Democratic political adviser James Carville said: ...“I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.”...

Stock market cycle matching to oil (at a lag of 144 months). Energy is in everything.

Original Post: https://ift.tt/2HTH1Uk

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Date Found: Tuesday, 01 October 2019, 02:18:22 AM

Comment: Wall of worry, or cliff of despair!

Date Found: Tuesday, 01 October 2019, 06:54:30 AM

Comment: Interesting.. Hitler good for the German DAX when he was winning! They believed .. until they didn't!  Just a confidence game, as all markets are!

Date Found: Wednesday, 02 October 2019, 10:38:04 PM

Comment: Oops .. the FED has not cut rates fast enough !

Date Found: Thursday, 03 October 2019, 03:33:04 AM

Comment: @Schuldensuehner6hUS recession risk has risen. When measured by latest econ data, probability of recession within 12mths is at >40%, yield curve signals probability of 60%, only stocks and corporate bonds do not signal increased risk. (Chart via JPM)

Date Found: Thursday, 03 October 2019, 06:06:48 PM

Comment: @TaviCosta7mThe recession clock is ticking faster. 5-yr vs. 3-m spread now inverted for almost 8 months! Only happened 4 other times: At the peak of the housing bubble. In the midst of the tech

Date Found: Saturday, 05 October 2019, 02:31:30 AM

Comment: @crescatkevin Credit bubbles build up when private sector debt growth rapidly outpaces GDP growth in a economic expansion. World’s biggest financial crises have followed from this unsustainable pattern. China, Canada, Australia pose serious risks today!

Date Found: Saturday, 05 October 2019, 05:34:32 PM

Comment: CEO confidence effects spending in economy, looks like US economy is about to freeze up before 2020 election

Date Found: Sunday, 06 October 2019, 05:16:52 PM

Comment: Interesting, Consumer confidence dent, or political play!

Date Found: Friday, 11 October 2019, 04:46:44 AM

Comment: A Recession Is Coming (Eventually)

Date Found: Friday, 11 October 2019, 05:15:54 AM

Comment: AAII falls down! Ooops! The FED did this!

Date Found: Friday, 11 October 2019, 10:46:54 PM

Comment: Germany near recession!

Date Found: Monday, 14 October 2019, 04:31:43 AM

Comment: Similar breakdowns from major support lines also occurred right in 2000

Date Found: Monday, 14 October 2019, 09:00:40 PM

Comment: ZH:US consumers spend less on critical household purchases when their economic situation deteriorates

Date Found: Tuesday, 15 October 2019, 02:05:04 AM

Comment: QE forever!

Date Found: Thursday, 17 October 2019, 07:45:48 PM

Comment: Recession when, not if! Soft or hard landing while there is massive corporate and  consumer debt around! Place your bets!

Original Post: https://ift.tt/2SRGKGx

Dow theory warning from the Utilities Index

Charles Dow died in 1902, and the investors should thank him for his ever lasting Dow Theory Analysis.


Carrying on this blog theme looking at the Utility stocks. Previous post.
Dow Jones Utility index could trade like the FANGs
Formula for when the Great Stock Market Rally ends



You can learn about Dow Theory here

This post is concerned with the 4th tenet.

Stock market averages must confirm each other

In Dow's time, the US was a growing industrial power. The US had population centers but factories were scattered throughout the country. Factories had to ship their goods to market, usually by rail. Dow's first stock averages were an index of industrial (manufacturing) companies and rail companies. To Dow, a bull market in industrial's could not occur unless the railway average rallied as well, usually first. According to this logic, if manufacturers' profits are rising, it follows that they are producing more. If they produce more, then they have to ship more goods to consumers. Hence, if an investor is looking for signs of health in manufacturers, he or she should look at the performance of the companies that ship their output to market, the railroads. The two averages should be moving in the same direction. When the performance of the averages diverge, it is a warning that change is in the air.

The above is correct in saying the transports should confirm the industrial index, also the utility index ideally should not out perform the transports, this is because the utility index is considered a safe harbor in times of great risk.

If the utilities out perform transports and/or industrial's then the smart money favor safety which indicates they favor water or electric dividend paying companies over trucking, rail road, consumer, technology or financial companies.

This is major sector rotation which signals great risk in the wider market is upon us or very nearly upon us. 

The chart below considered the performance of the Dow Utilities Index vs Dow Transports Index next to previous Dow Industrial major market tops. Conclusion is in black text.

This Charles Dow quote suits the modern day passive investing theme (ie ETFs gone crazy, for more  go here to Mike Green)

Original Post: https://ift.tt/38g33fo

Dow Jones Utility index could trade like the FANGs

The world is changing because the US FED is considering capping the US 10 yr interest rate under the US inflation rate, or negative real interest rates forever. Further massive destruction of the US dollar purchasing power.


Previous Post: Formula for when the great stock market rally ends

In the previous post this blog said:

When valuations for the boring water company or the boring electric company is trading like your Facebook, Apple, Amazon or Netflix or Google (ie FANG) you know something is wrong.

This is when a seriously over valued market is screaming at you.

Of course the reader must understand in a world where money printing goes super nuts (Zimbabwe style) the stock market may go hyper inflationary and picking a time frame for a top is never a good idea, but we are not there yet. There is no Ben Bernanke helicopter money to the masses yet (ie MMT).

We may be there, 'helicopter money lite'. If the intention is to cap interest rates under inflation, this is a form of massive easy money (or easy debt). 

Of course the effect of negative real interest rates is the US 10 yr is now broken because it does not protect you from inflation, this is interest rates suppression, of fake. The US FED has enacted this policy before, during WW2, are we in WW3? No. Yet the debt levels as a percentage of GDP suggest we are. Crazy.

This means investors will hunt for a UST 10 yr alternative, hence utility stocks with their high dividends will attract a lot more investor interest. Yes a water company may go to a P/E of 40. 

This means demand for quality utility stocks around the world will be strong, and if the US dollar falls, utility stock in other parts of the world will be attractive. 

A good place to hunt for Wyckoff, cycles and Gann angles.



Long term channels

Close up of the above chart.

Of course nothing moves in a straight line, corrections of 10% to 20% along the way are likely.





Original Post: https://ift.tt/2tlnW9K