Australia to enter a very sad period - Update

Lets add some dates to the bearish forecast of the ASX200.


Previous post on the subject and a more detailed Ewave construction can be found here.

SHORT ANSWER

The vertical light red shaded area (chart 1) is the T Theory forecast for the final price top (end of B wave). This period is some where between Nov 2021 and July 2022. This zone is the confluence of equal time cycles as presented on the chart. Notice how this note refers to a extreme price top and not a crash or bear market starting date. Price can consolidate for some time after a extreme high is posted. 


MORE

1) The ASX200 (!AORD) is highly correlated to the US NYSE index.
2) The US (and the world) are entering into a period of above average inflation.
3) Interest rate increases, either by the central bank or market forces, can negatively adjust risk on positions. 
4) Overall equity market positioning is extremely bullish and vulnerable.

Keep this chart in mind going into 2022, also be aware of the US mid terms late 2022.

2022 is going to be very interesting. Funny how the years ending with 9,0,1,2,3,4 (end of a decade) can also be major cycle end dates. 

Chart 1

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Date Found: Thursday, 31 December 2020, 04:38:42 PM

Comment: Biingo.. it is what it is, know the playing field

Date Found: Thursday, 07 January 2021, 03:08:04 AM

Comment: @RaoulGMI "No, it can't be... the prices and price structure are identical in log terms too??? WTF? But BTC is the one truth...this cant be!"

Date Found: Tuesday, 12 January 2021, 05:27:14 PM

Comment: Pattern 1,2,3,4 count ... maybe, maybe not!

Date Found: Wednesday, 13 January 2021, 03:03:39 AM

Comment: $100k, and maybe an over shoot... the sideaways for 3 years, maybe a under shoot...as well

Date Found: Wednesday, 13 January 2021, 04:09:59 PM

Comment: The Fed is trapped. They want robust economic activity and soaring asset prices....This can only occur with more debt and leverage. To make existing and additional debt manageable and appealing, they must reduce interest rates. With interest rates near zero, inflation becomes a more critical tool. QE and recent programs with the Treasury are how they hope to generate inflation. The graph below comparing QE to GDP shows the effect of the Fed’s herculean efforts to keep the debt

Date Found: Thursday, 14 January 2021, 05:09:30 PM

Comment: SP500 ratio to Raw Commodity Index (no oil) : OMG!

Date Found: Thursday, 14 January 2021, 05:10:32 PM

Comment: Chinese are pumping the easy money in!

Date Found: Thursday, 14 January 2021, 06:24:59 PM

Comment: US Deficits for ever! US dollar must go down

Date Found: Saturday, 16 January 2021, 05:14:08 PM

Comment: Wieteke Middelkoop Almost 75% of all bonds yield less than 1% When money loses its value, money dies .. RTT.. hence gold,silver and Bitcoin

Date Found: Saturday, 16 January 2021, 06:10:47 PM

Comment: Very USD bearish

Date Found: Saturday, 16 January 2021, 09:35:09 PM

Comment: Looks like BTC could run long and hard for 6 to 12 months

Date Found: Tuesday, 26 January 2021, 06:23:46 PM

Comment: Bubble update: parabolic phase youtu.be/LF_rpXU2dy4

Date Found: Thursday, 28 January 2021, 03:27:52 AM

Comment: The GameStop Infinite Money Glitch Explained youtu.be/8YrnTbzuOWM

Date Found: Sunday, 31 January 2021, 01:11:21 AM

Comment: It takes about 6 to 12 months before the outsiders work this out!

Date Found: Sunday, 31 January 2021, 04:41:38 PM

Comment: Global flow adjustment looks very bullish!

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Bitcoin to $200,000 Review

Here is why BTCUSD to $200,000 is now on the table in 2021.


During a period of heavy money printing with higher debt levels the FED must choose between two of the following to avoid a collapse:

1) Higher stock prices.
2) Keeping the economy and employment positive.
3) US dollar strength.

The above is known as the economic 'Dollar Trinity' choice.

The FED and the DEM's (US mid terms 2022) will choose a higher stock market and keeping the economy positive, this means the US dollar is due to suffer weakness.

Bitcoin will do well during US dollar weakness. But how high will BTCUSD go in 2021, lets see how Max Keiser worked out his $225,000 USD price target for 2021. 

POINT: Channels drawn correctly are the path for price action.

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Gold Gann Angle Update

Gold, debt, inflation, USD and interest rates are in the same bowel,  if interest rates are suppressed then it is dollar down and gold up.


Chart 1 - Gold has been running up the Gann 1:4 blue angle. Notice how corrections are bouncing of this Gann angle (red arrows). 

Chart 2 - Inflation narrative grows within CEO and CFOs within SP500 companies. Inflation higher than interest rates is known as negative real yield and USD bearish and gold bullish.

Chart 3 - The FED is the larger player in the UST market, this folks is Yield Curve Management (or control). Very USD bearish. 

Chart 4 - The US dollar cycle is running to a new low, a possible 'plunge spike' or 'selling climax' lower is on the table. DXY to $85 is -10% down. The RTTDPO (indicator 2) line a 2x the cycle period or 2 x 918 = 1836.

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RTT Plus Bulletin

RTT Plus private blog answer these questions over the last two weeks.


- Why is Dow 1937 so important in 2021?
- What does Cliff High and David Hunter forecasts have in common?
- What is the only market adjusting tool left to the FED?
- Is there a market top near?
- What is the proposed global hidden slavery system?
- RTT mid year review (Cycles, FED, Macro included), bullish or bearish, hmm?
- Should you be US dollar bullish, and what is the 'Dollar Trinity'?
- Which new stock was added to RTT Wyckoff Campaign watch blog (RTT WC)?

RTT Plus membership required to review.

RTT Plus members can include chart building services if you wish. If you you do not want chart building services select 'RTT Plus' only during the membership sign up process. 

Sign up now!



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Bitcoin Gann Angle Forecast

This is why crypto was hit, and the whales new it was coming.


Here is the crypto FUD (FUD is fear, uncertainty and doubt, FOMO is fear of missing out) from this week, just prior before the 50% smash in Bitcoin:

via ..

@TheCryptoLark

In the last week
- Elon FUD
- China FUD
- Binance FUD
- OCC FUD

All at the same time.

There is a coordinated effort to shake you out.

One day the market will say 'put up or shut up', and jawboning FUD will not mean anything at all.

But why jawbone all this FUD at all, well they can not do anything else:
- Raise rates, NOPE
- Withdraw surplus cash, NOPE
- Raise the dollar, HELL NO! 


Why?

Bitcoin had to be attacked, because the exponential rise in Bitcoin price signaled to the uniformed masses of the world, these nasty things are going to effect your wealth:

- MONEY PRINTING
- INFLATION
- DEBT
- NO END IN SIGHT
- And soon PANIC.

Bitcoin is the western economies Zimbabwe style hyper inflationary stock market. 

Did the FUD do the trick?

Of course not, all it did was transfer crypto from the weak (highly leveraged) hands to the strong hands (large balance sheets), and this time around it is your local banker (JPM, BAC, C, WF) . New US regulations allow your bank to hold crypto on your behalf, so when you next log onto your internet banking account, you will see checking, savings and crypto assets held by the bank for you. Of course to offer this new service bankers first must accumulate sufficient crypto stock, at a discount. Well mission accomplished, Bitcoin is now at a 30% to 50% discount.


Some charts.


Chart 1 (Weekly) - Continuation selling climax spikes are common in a BTC uptrend. After each spike it takes a week or two to confirm demand is present in the chart.

Chart 2 - Gann Angle and T Theory Time study. Bitcoin is the fastest moving price unit per time unit ever. This is why the Gann Angle 1x1 chart is narrow and very tall. 

Gann Angles starting from the Mt Gox High. The Gann Angle 1x1 picked the 2017 high, and so far its picked the high in 2021 with the 1x2, but is it the final high for this bull cycle, who knows (see video below), the next Gann 1x4 Angle forecast high is $110,000 or so. 

Hat tip to Cliff High.

Cliff High back in 2017 (Half Past Human Report) picked a 1929 bust like event for Bitcoin during May 2021 near $65,000 USD. Check that off, web bot report hit!

Cliff also picked that in the same year of the above 1929 bust event, Bitcoin may experience $100,000 USD celebration parties. Will that happen? Who knows. But did you notice that both the price targets mention by Cliff fit nicely within Gann Angle price targets drawn from the Mt Gox high. Hmmm!

Time will tell. Nothing is 100% ever.

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Date Found: Sunday, 22 November 2020, 05:47:49 PM

Comment: Bitcoin ambitions ...

Date Found: Sunday, 22 November 2020, 05:48:34 PM

Comment: PMI juiced back up ...

Date Found: Sunday, 22 November 2020, 05:49:42 PM

Comment: Gold more room to move higher!

Date Found: Sunday, 22 November 2020, 07:45:48 PM

Comment: Liquidity now 2020Q4 is the same as the bottom of 2009 lows.. a big rally followed .... then a correction..

Date Found: Tuesday, 24 November 2020, 07:39:32 PM

Comment: Melt-Up In the Works: Parobolic Moves Ahead – David Hunter youtu.be/j78XiToFDUw

Date Found: Thursday, 26 November 2020, 01:52:50 AM

Comment: Conditions are perfect, for how many more months!

Date Found: Tuesday, 08 December 2020, 02:02:51 AM

Comment: Central Bank continue to grow .. a lot!

Date Found: Friday, 11 December 2020, 05:55:24 PM

Comment: David Hunter - Gold Investors Should Avoid Making This Mistake youtu.be/bPz9oOAko8k

Date Found: Saturday, 19 December 2020, 06:25:01 AM

Comment: 6 years trend says Euro to 1.30+

Date Found: Saturday, 19 December 2020, 06:25:50 AM

Comment: Future SP500 returns to slump in the next decade!

Date Found: Monday, 21 December 2020, 09:14:29 PM

Comment: Bull Markets: "The $QQQ rallied by more than 0.5% on 97 days over the past 9 months. Such non-stop rallies only happened in the 2nd half of 1999. Back then, stocks rallied for another half year before the bubble popped."

Date Found: Wednesday, 23 December 2020, 02:50:10 AM

Comment: If the BLUE leads 10 yield to 2.5% then FED will fire up YCC (Yield Curve Control), for the first time since WW2. Risk on will scream higher...Why to fight debasement of currency by inflation.

Date Found: Wednesday, 23 December 2020, 02:52:10 AM

Comment: Money running into EUROPE, hence the $USD is down.

Date Found: Wednesday, 23 December 2020, 02:54:37 AM

Comment: The FED needs another buyer for a roll over of $7.4T of USTs in 2021, Japanese investors won buy these until the USD is down further (on DXY).

Date Found: Thursday, 31 December 2020, 12:38:32 AM

Comment: @RobinBrooksIIF The Fed bought $2.4 tn in Treasuries in 2020 (blue) & largely funds the deficit (black). Had you told me in 2019 this is what 2020 would be, I'd have predicted big disagreement among economists. Instead, there's near universal support, which to me is the biggest surprise of 2020.

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Energy Lines on Crypto Currency

Let us assume crypto is going to catch fire, with blow off tops which extend, so how hot will crypto prices truly get.


The current US economic environment is one of rising prices (ISM Price Index up) while growth is slowing (employment and ISM manufacturing index down), this is stagflation, which is an ideal setting for lower US dollar prices and higher gold, silver and crypto prices.

An elephant moves so fast, a lion moves faster, each have their own pace or stride, so does a price of a security. Parallel channel lines can show the energy of price moves, therefore we can see what can happen if we map prior energy price move to a current price move.

Well it is as good as any other tool out there! Ha!



Chart 1 - LITECOIN TARGET 

Chart 2 - ETHEREUM TARGET

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Yellen can not stop the dollar decline

Printing money results in a lower currency, so long as the currency does not fall too fast.


Previous Post: US Dollar Forecast - Weakness

Here are the very strong fundamentals for a lower US dollar: 

(a) US inflation exploding.
(b) Massive US twin deficits.
(c) Better conditions in Europe.

However French election worries in 2022 Q1 and Q2 may provide US dollar strength (via European weakness) after Christmas, but this strength may come after a low in the DXY near $84.  

It looks like Yellen knows a down swing in the US dollar is near because today she jaw bones strength into the US dollar.

..."It may be that interest rates will have to rise a little bit to make sure our economy doesn't overheat''...

Or maybe she does not mind standing on Powell toes to goose up the US dollar to allow her WallStreet friends to load up on risk on assets before the dollar sinks.


Dollar chart 1 - Fundamentals are bearish.

Dollar chart 2 - Break down is near

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