Monday, 13 February 2023

Bitcoin accumulation is real

Richard Wyckoff told his students think of waves of price and volume. This in short is the essence of tape reading.
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There are not many books which actually assist money making, yet Tim Ord book below certainly helped this site. 


Ord



In the book above Tim Ord expands Richard Wyckoff logic and how to review a chart waves of price and volume. Lets use bticoin as an example (code is within readtheticker.com Analysis chart, more examples here)

The chart below uses a fixed bar period to form a 'price wave' and sums up the raw volume for each price wave. Up price waves are blue, down price waves are red.

To expand further, lets examine the consolidations A and B.

Consolidation A shows red volume higher than blue volume, blue volume is not substantial at all, hence there was little demand, little accumulation, and the consolidation result was one of re distribution to lower prices. 

Consolidation B shows blue volume higher than red volume, blue volume is substantial, hence there is solid demand, strong accumulation, and this consolidation is leaning to pure accumulation which is likely to lead to higher prices (of course this pattern does not mean a spike to a new low, like a terminal shake out, is not off the table). 


BTC



For those not interested in Wyckoff wizardary charts then here is a fundamental chart. Chinese juice and the change in BTC price.


Juice




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Sunday, 5 February 2023

Bitcoin has found its natural vibration

Gann said everything finds its natural vibration, its manner, its own characteristics.
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W D Gann's superlative skill was his ability to forecast accurately the stock and commodity markets. His forecasting method was based upon what he called the Law of Vibration. Almost a hundred years (August 8th 1908) ago Gann made this most important discoveries, if not his most important discovery.

W D Gann Quote (Ticker Interview, more here)

..“Vibration is fundamental; nothing is exempt from this law; it is universal, therefore applicable to every class of phenomena on the globe"…."After years of patient study I have proven to my entire satisfaction, as well as demonstrated to others, that vibration explains every possible phase and condition of the market”..



In the chart below, you can see price bouncing off walls of support and resistance (red channel lines), this shows price has 'managed moves', completed by very large players.

Of course channels can change over time, and move on different price angles (speed of advance). You can find these channels by simple trial and error over price. The more hits of price near support and resistance the more likely you have found the channel that is dominate.

Yes you can do the same with sine wave cycle analysis, but here we are using channels. 


Chart 1 - BTC weekly 


BTC



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Wednesday, 25 January 2023

Silver shorts must be worried

Gold is tickling new all time highs yet silver is 50% away from all time highs, silver shorts are ripe for an attack.
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Gold is moving up with JPY and EUR, gold in USD terms will soon follow.



SLV 1





Backwardation stress in silver is showing a bullish signal set up.



SLV 2



Silver should be at least $15 USD higher, near $30 to $40 USD now!



SLV 1



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Thursday, 19 January 2023

Is FED balance sheet expansion on the table in 2023?

Will the FED cash bazooka be used to balance the US books in 2023?
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Note: Members can keep up with the news on these subjects via our RTT Plus commentary service.


Chart 1 - US Deficit 2023 Forecast +$2 Trillion

The U.S. ran about a US$1.4 trillion deficit in 2022, this will swell to US$2.5 trillion in 2023 (dotted black line, left axis).

Here is some big numbers why:

- Interest on the debt is going up with higher rates adding about US$200 billion.
- In 2022 about US$600 billion in capital gains tax got paid and that won't happen in 2023.
- There was an 8.7% increase in social security etc. that adds about US$120 billion.
- Then you have student loan forgiveness and Ukraine aid so we can easily go to a US$2.5 trillion deficit.
- If a recession sets in, tax receipts will go down too. This would likely push the deficit near or over $3 trillion

More..

The orange line is the year over year value change purchase of US Treasuries (UST) by foreign and domestic institutions. The difference between the orange and black line are the unsold UST. These unsold USTs are purchased mostly buy the US Federal reserve (the blue line, now over $8 trillion) and placed on their balance sheet. Notice how before the 2008 GFC the USA had no trouble selling its debt (or USTs). A visible loss in confidence.

POINT: A 2023 US deficit over +$2 trillion will force the FED to once more buy US debt (USTs) or QE. More monetary debasement for the hard money markets (gold, silver, bitcoin) to absorb.  



DEF





Chart 2 - Foreigners buying US Treasuries

A strong US dollar deters foreign investors from buying USTs. Manipulating the US dollar down makes the US debt (USTs) more attractive, a weaker US dollar also allows are larger quantity of USTs to be sold, resulting in less unsold USTs for the Federal Reserve to buy. A larger 2023 US deficit will place huge pressure on the US dollar. 


FOR






Chart 3 - Debasement of money is a reduction of purchasing power. 

Investors can protect their purchasing power by investing in hard money. Bitcoin (BTC) is a most volatile hard money asset, and will do well if the US Federal Reserve if forced to once again buy USTs (or QE) in 2023 (and 2024/25).


BTC



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Thursday, 12 January 2023

Hot pick for 2023 - 2

This is pick number 2. It is number 2 as the volatility is extreme and a new low is not off the table.
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Ethereum is likely to recover off its lows, however unlikely to make new highs in 2023.

Some points: 

- Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are managing supply shocks (BTC - MT Cox coin release, ETH - Stacking release post merge) to ensure price recovers. 

- Big down moves end on big bad news, the FTX crash should be the bad news to end the crypto sell off (well pending).

- New liquidity is arriving to world markets via the Chinese re opening and a lower US dollar.

- The FED's balance sheet reduction is being offset by the Dept of Treasury (Yellen) use of the TGA account.

- The reduction of world wealth via Bonds, Crypto, World Stock markets is near $30 trillion USD, the damage has been done to lower inflation concerns. The inflation fix is working.

- The greatest pain trade is for sold off risk on markets to recover. 

- The US has a balance of payments issue in 2023, who will buy excess USTs. The FED of course!



Chart ETH - Notice how $ETH moves between green channel support and resistance lines. 


ETH



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Friday, 30 December 2022

Hot pick for 2023

Stock pickers are now making predictions for 2023, RTT's sector market call is related to hard money.
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For two years GDXJ has failed to make new yearly highs. 2023 should be its year.

The good news is all the accumulation over a 6 year period (2014 - 2020) has not been divested, we know this as the volume over 2021/22 is very light and no new yearly lows have been made. This is basic Wyckoff accumulation logic and the chart below shows this well. The point is GDXJ investors are holding and waiting for new yearly highs. 

GDXJ will require gold, silver and stocks to do well for gains in 2023. Or more simply the US dollar will have to be weaker through out 2023.

Retail investors should place GDXJ on their watch list, and wait for daily and weekly price action to show the market whales are moving price higher to new ground. In other worlds a Wyckoff sign of strength.

Watching and waiting ..


GDXJ






Yamana Gold is a large market cap stock within the GDXJ ETF. 

Yamana Gold Inc is a gold and silver producer that is headquartered in Toronto, Canada. The firm has operations in Canada, Brazil, Chile, and Argentina. Its shares are also traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

Yamana Gold Inc. mineral resources as of 2021 stand at 176 million tonnes. Out of these, the Jeronimo resources constitute the largest chunk, as they stand at 95 million tonnes. The firm's mineral reserves of gold are 388 million tonnes, and its proven and probable gold reserves are 758 million tonnes.

Via Yahoo.com


AUY




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Tuesday, 20 December 2022

Liquidity Cycle to Bottom in 2023 - Update

The Pied piper bearish news scares many uninformed investors out of their positions, but is history about to repeat and another risk on period is soon to be born.
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Previous Post: Liquidity Cycle to Bottom in 2023

CAUTION: Before we get too bullish, no one knows if another risk off low in due or how bad it may be.

But this does not mean informed investors can not accumulate positions in good assets on long term trends while they are on sale. 

The chart below (DXY cycle vs Dow Cycle) shows 5 out of 5 wins for risk on, will it be 6 out of 6?

Watching and waiting ...


Cycle dow



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Wednesday, 14 December 2022

Love of property investment will die

When the cost of property finance doubles the asset prices will suffer.
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A bond crisis will arrive to the world largest bond market post 2024. Higher mortgages rates in 2022 was just a teaser, double digit mortgage rates are coming in 2024/25. Central bankers will not be able to hold back the inflation push in bond yields.

POINT: 2023 will be the last year of grace before world wide mortgage rates go nuts.


Why? 

Well the funding of the US Government by US Treasuries is a function of low inflation and low interest rates, and low inflation is dependent on low energy costs. If you frustrate the energy supply (and food) you will get shortages, shortages lead to demand and supply issues which result in higher prices for longer and inflation is the result.

POINT: This of course means if you tame energy supplies, then you will tame inflation. 



Lots of moving parts, start your education here.






Long term cycles on the US 10 yr suggest decade lows rates are in.


Bonds



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Friday, 9 December 2022

US Dollar lower in 2023

A US dollar rally is a condition of things not being well in the world, a falling US dollar is more calm arriving in the markets.
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Larry McDonald talks about what can lower the US dollar in 2023 (first 15 min).






US dollar models suggest the trend is down in 2023. Light blue leads US dollar by 8 months (diff between EU and US core inflation).



USD





China is also helping the world with more juice into 2023.


China




Of course wild cards will tease the markets as always.








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Sunday, 27 November 2022

Liquidity Cycle to Bottom in 2023

The liquidity cycle wave is about to bottom, major lows may be in as we go into Christmas 2022.
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CrossBorder Capital see another liquidity low in 2023 (or already in 2022) with a juice up run into 2025. 


Cycle liquidity





The Dow cycle mirrors the cycle above. Investors just have to judge if the smash low is in ! (ha)


Dow Cycle



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Tuesday, 22 November 2022

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Monday, 21 November 2022

Silver will be supported by China Juice in 2023

China is about to re juice their economy, re open, and this will effect world wide market trends in 2023.
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When the monetary juice flows from China this reduces stress on the world, it creates demand, it lowers the US dollar and supports the Euro, world wide manufacturing improves.

China knows the US yield curve is forecasting recession like conditions late 2023. US recessions creates a negative world wide demand effects, and that is the last thing China manufacturing wants coming out of a COVID slump period. Therefore one can expect solid Chinese support for recovery in 2023.



Chart 1 - From Raoul Pal weekly free GMI report. China credit impulse leads world manufacturing (PMI).


China juice





Chart 2 - Silver large draw downs of silver COMEX stocks must eventually put higher pressure on price. Silver is a in demand commodity for green energy technology like solar.



silver COMEX




Chart 3 - Silver long term cycles (black) are bullish, while short term cycles are ready to turn higher (green).


Silver 3



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