Stock market leaders at exhaustion

Many stock market leading sectors are suffering exhaustion, and have been held up for distribution.


Previous Post: A leading SPDR sector looks to roll over

The SPDR Health sector is showing exhaustion at the end of the trend, the 'Effect' as exhausted itself. It has been a dream run, many large players have banked health profits.

The question now is the current consolidation one of distribution or accumulation? Can we expect another run up from the building 'Cause'?

So far prices have been held up to sell into, as most of the volume is net selling. Yes prices are still high after this distribution (absorption), and it may mean we shall see another run to all time highs on the XLV for more selling into the up swing. To determine if the next swing up is strength and a break out for this sector will require careful judgment as to the quality of the strength behind the move. Remember the composite man can move the market 10% to 15% just to trick you, and remove you from you hard earned cash.

POINT: Not all moves to higher highs should attract new investment, some can call these moves a bull market trap, or fake break out. It is election year folks and the stock market is being used (incorrectly) as a measure of how healthy the economy is for the common man. Obama and Biden have already met with Yellen and placed there order in for 'all is well', raise rates to prove economy and markets are 'all ok'. (Consider this).

Wyckoff PnF analysis shows this sector leader and the wider market is exhausted.

Here is a question from Barrons:

Why?

Short Answer: The smart money want to distribute their stock float to the dumb money, and they are not done yet, maybe another all time high on the SP500 to sucker them all in, just one more time.

Plus Obama and Biden have already ordered Yellen to allow no crashes until after the election.

Simple!


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Hot Wyckoff Logic Stocks

The ability to scan for stocks that suit ones trading logic is vital.


With the readtheticker.com PnF Swing wave scan it is easy to find stocks that suit Richard Wyckoff logic.

Here is a list from a scan run today: STZ|NOC|RTN|ADBE|MCD|LMT|BSX|PEP|CLX|TSN|MDT|GIS|GOOG|GOOGL|ICE|UNH|FB|TMUS|V|SBUX|

Stocks that meet the 'Cause and Effect' formula to a high standard.

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Higher interest rates not expected in longer term bonds

The TLT includes US Bonds maturing between 20 and 30 years.
The TLT chart shows no fear of the US FED raising rates. It looks strong and higher prices should be expected in the months ahead. Higher prices means lower average bond yield or lower interest rates are expected. Simply the folks supporting the TLT price do not believe the FED is on a long term rate hike plan.

The chart below is showing off RTT NetVolume tools.(RTT = readtheticker)

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Cycles that require your attention

There next down swing in small cap stocks could get very messy.


Using readtheticker.com Hurst cycle tools we can see that both in Small cap stocks and Crude oil may be swinging down over the next few months. The easy money has been made on the up swing, yes there may be little more to go on the up swing, but not much! When the cycles works is a good idea to keep an eye on it!

Small cap stocks is a good measure of Risk On vs Risk Off. Remember true accumulation sees the reduction of volatility, so far we have not seen this, which suggest distribution is the main theme of this consolidation, and lower prices normally follow.

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RTT browsing latest..

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Date Found: Thursday, 07 January 2016, 06:39:39 PM

Comment: RTT: Don't expect a commodities 'V' reversal. It is down and out for the count! 3 to 6 year base easy. Meanwhile all the debt held by commodity related business ka boom! Ouch!

Date Found: Friday, 08 January 2016, 10:23:13 PM

Comment: Watch this.."which shows that once the ISM drops below 45, it virtually always results in a recession, with just two false positives: in 1951 and 1968. "...

Date Found: Saturday, 09 January 2016, 01:11:15 PM

Comment: RTT: If the US common folk are not borrowing on easy terms to buy cars, then economy is in deep poop! Remember car loans is the new sub prime! Ouch!

Date Found: Saturday, 09 January 2016, 05:26:43 PM

Comment: RTT: This is the Keynesian "growth" model. China new world, build and empty city, smash it down, build another! youtu.be/SnzzWGcdMqY

Date Found: Monday, 11 January 2016, 03:37:12 PM

Comment: SocGen: So could the long, long overdue great rotation from growth and momentum names to value finally be starting? If so, some of the upcoming flame outs, not just among the FANGs but across the entire market leadership, if such a thing exists, in the coming months will be stuff financial horror stories are made of.

Date Found: Tuesday, 12 January 2016, 06:42:02 PM

Comment: RTT: US Rail road car volume is at recession levels. The Oil bust is spreading..ouch!

Date Found: Tuesday, 12 January 2016, 09:07:07 PM

Comment: Thanks Obama!

Date Found: Wednesday, 13 January 2016, 08:02:48 PM

Comment: NOTE: The bigger they come, the harder they fall? RTT: Naah no one saw this coming!

Date Found: Friday, 15 January 2016, 12:04:14 PM

Comment: Art Cashin its "deep concern" and "not panic"...the FED is desperate.

Date Found: Friday, 15 January 2016, 12:37:57 PM

Comment: RTT: The best momentum trends are being sold down. This is a very real TREND challenge!

Date Found: Friday, 15 January 2016, 05:25:17 PM

Comment: RTT: Oh No! History may repeat.."Any single correction isn't, in and of itself, a problem, but the speed with which stocks dropped into correction territory almost back-to-back has been seen only three other times in the past 100 years. And these are not years that market historians want to hear: 1929, 2000, 2008."..

Date Found: Friday, 15 January 2016, 06:46:12 PM

Comment: RTT: In context, the most common pullback in the Dow Jones 200 year history is 12.5%, so who care now. The FED will panic! Watch this space!

Date Found: Saturday, 16 January 2016, 09:40:06 PM

Comment: .."Factories aren’t buying and retailers aren’t stocking. The ratio of inventory to sales in the US is an indicator of this. The last time that ratio was this high was during the “great recession” in 2008."... RTT: But Obama said things were GREAT!, Say what bro!

Date Found: Sunday, 17 January 2016, 12:07:17 PM

Comment: RTT : Stock build when you cant sell the stuff, you cant sell the stuff when there is NO DEMAND, a demand slump or recession is a another word!

Date Found: Sunday, 17 January 2016, 05:13:02 PM

Comment: RTT: The trader view on China is AUDUSD, as Aussie exports a massive amount to China. Also add to this Copper! So far China is not doing so good!

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Invest in re Accumulation patterns

Finding nice tight Wyckoff patterns can be a challenge, not any more!


More from RTT Tv

Bruce Fraser post here

Chart from Stockcharts.com

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First Majastic Silver Wyckoff Friendly

Sometimes is just works! Wyckoff logic is excellent when all the evidence supports your view.


The traditional Wyckoff logic traders will see the Wyckoff accumulation in this stock. Notice the NetVolume divergence with price, very telling. Point and Figure chart showing off an excellent 'CAUSE', that exploded into a fantastic 'EFFECT'. Some times winning is just too easy!

PnF Chart, love the 'CAUSE' that was the base for the 'EFFECT'

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Apple Inc review with RTT Steps

When a trend is this pretty the retail trader has every chance!


More from RTT Tv

More on RTT Steps here

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SP500 to 2,500 pts

Buy the dip, if you believe the next chart. Because you wont be able to stop this rally!



The action by the NYSE Summation Index has been simply outstanding, the rapid rise to +1200 in quick time suggest that what happened 3x before is about to happen again. Ignore the negative news, the SP500 will print 2,500 in the next few years if not months.

The above statements is what you should agree to if there is to be QE 4,5,6. Readtheticker.com blog is not so sure, more time is required to believe the above. Of course the magical move higher by the NYSE Summation Index could by the hands of the central planners by buying the correct stocks with their magical machines. Watching and waiting.

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Date Found: Thursday, 31 December 2015, 07:33:59 PM

Comment: Debt exploded:The bond markets are starting to factor in the dangerous combination of rising interest rates as well as profit weakness in several sectors. The U.S. distress ratio – a measure of the amount of risk the market has priced into bonds – hit 20.1% in November, which is the highest level since hitting 23.5% in September 2009, says S&P. That’s an onerous indicator since September 2009 takes investors back to the last recession. There is very good reason for distress in the corporat

Date Found: Saturday, 02 January 2016, 02:09:48 PM

Comment: Kyle Bass like the depressed energy sector: RTT Timing is always a Bit*h! www.youtube.com/...

Date Found: Sunday, 03 January 2016, 04:38:51 PM

Comment: US Student and Car loans together is over $2 trillion...WOW! NOT SUB PRIME look away, nothing to see here!

Date Found: Sunday, 03 January 2016, 09:32:38 PM

Comment: RTT: 6 companies is half of the QQQ, ouch!

Date Found: Monday, 04 January 2016, 05:43:30 PM

Comment: Kyle Bass. Some winners and some losers! Such is life! youtu.be/dY-F-aGFyt4

Date Found: Tuesday, 05 January 2016, 11:26:41 AM

Comment: Fisher Fed At Fault .."the FED Is a huge weapon that has no bullets left"... youtu.be/7nuzT3rchPU

Date Found: Tuesday, 05 January 2016, 02:50:04 PM

Comment: RTT: RED LINE WILL BE HIT AGAIN on revert to mean!

Date Found: Wednesday, 06 January 2016, 12:04:36 PM

Comment: RTT: Stock markets can fall 98%, when there is a massive CAPITAL FLIGHT out of the country! Got gold!

Date Found: Wednesday, 06 January 2016, 12:09:44 PM

Comment: RTT: 2016 SP500 forecast for the SP500 is between 1800 and 2100 (allows for markets overshoot), if FED balance sheet stays flat of course, but if they withdraw liquidity to get interest rates up, then much lower we go!

Date Found: Wednesday, 06 January 2016, 04:23:31 PM

Comment: RTT: Another 7 year cycle chart, remember this is the 49 yr, 7th year of 7 cycles! Wooo scary! Are you hedged!

Date Found: Wednesday, 06 January 2016, 04:24:53 PM

Comment: RTT: Interesting, the 8th year of presidents election year is bad, well add on to that Obama care kicking in, then what ! Ouch!

Date Found: Wednesday, 06 January 2016, 04:26:26 PM

Comment: RTT: Gold 8 year cycle upswing, to offset stocks 7 year cycle downswing. Can the COMEX boys stop it??

Date Found: Thursday, 07 January 2016, 12:12:53 PM

Comment: OfTwoMinds blog.."It's requiring more borrowed yen/yuan/dollars/euros just to keep the global economy from collapsing in a heap of impaired debt. The costs of waste, fraud and mal-investment are finally coming home to roost, and while near-zero interest rates serve to mask the future costs, near-zero rates cannot stem the rising tide of mal-investment. Rather, near-zero rates have fueled mal-investment, waste and unproductive spending.

Date Found: Thursday, 07 January 2016, 12:15:14 PM

Comment: .." Fed tightening is almost always associated with “events”, and markets have a habit of forcing policy reversals "...

Date Found: Thursday, 07 January 2016, 04:44:21 PM

Comment: RTT: Every January the Wall Street marketing machine says where ever the first 3 to 7 days of the year goes so does the year! Ouch!

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