readtheticker blogger

Tuesday, 27 September 2022

RTT browsing latest..

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.

The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.

Date Found: Monday, 27 June 2022, 10:58:15 PM

Comment: TweetDeck

Date Found: Wednesday, 29 June 2022, 08:53:47 PM

Comment: TweetDeck

Date Found: Thursday, 30 June 2022, 12:03:10 AM

Comment: TweetDeck

Date Found: Friday, 01 July 2022, 08:36:20 PM

Comment: TweetDeck

Date Found: Sunday, 03 July 2022, 09:01:01 PM

Comment: TweetDeck

Date Found: Tuesday, 05 July 2022, 10:13:06 PM

Comment: TweetDeck

Date Found: Tuesday, 05 July 2022, 10:14:20 PM

Comment: TweetDeck

Date Found: Tuesday, 05 July 2022, 10:18:29 PM

Comment: Chart of the Week and Weekly Report Highlights

Date Found: Wednesday, 06 July 2022, 07:53:28 PM

Comment: TweetDeck

Date Found: Thursday, 07 July 2022, 07:44:32 PM

Comment: So, Recession? - by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Date Found: Friday, 08 July 2022, 07:36:15 PM

Comment: TweetDeck

Date Found: Friday, 08 July 2022, 08:55:25 PM

Comment: TweetDeck

Date Found: Saturday, 09 July 2022, 10:13:37 PM

Comment: TweetDeck

Date Found: Tuesday, 12 July 2022, 12:36:03 AM

Comment: TweetDeck

Date Found: Tuesday, 12 July 2022, 12:49:32 AM

Comment: David Hay (@Haymaker_0) / Twitter

Original Post: https://ift.tt/yQqszH3

Friday, 23 September 2022

SP500 stop loss lines 2000, 2007 and 2022 now!

Percentage stop loss lines review, compare 2000 and 2007 tops to the current.

Its a pullback.
Its a pullback.
Its a pullback.
OOOh shit its a crash!

The market is run on fear and greed. Fear is a more powerful force than greed, fear is in play.

Every sheep does not want to be the last into the new feeding grounds, missing out fear!

The next few weeks will see the sheep run into the SELL paddock! Watching and waiting. Of course the wolves will be buying.

2022

2007

2000

Original Post: https://ift.tt/8ko9RaX

Monday, 5 September 2022

Powell - My bestie indicators

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell favorite indicators.

Powell has three jobs at the Federal Reserve.
1) Ensure the US Treasury market functions.
2) Price stability.
3) Employment.

The last two require changes to monetary policy.

1) Ensure the US Treasury market functions.
The US Treasury (UST) market is how the US funds its deficits. A deficit is the short fall between income and expenses. The UST market must trade each day, the market must be liquid, to allow capital to enter and leave the market freely. Currently liquidity is under stress as there is an over supply versus demand, therefore higher interest rates are required to attract buyers. The question remains can the US with its debt to GDP over 120% afford higher interest rates. Powell is busy maintaining US Treasury market liquidity, if a liquidity crisis eventuates then Powell will be forced to be the buyer of last resort via Fed balance sheet expansion. Indicator says currently the US Treasury market stress is very high.

Chart 0

2) Price Stability and Employment.
Powell is concern with two economic indicators, (a) the unemployment rate and (b) core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index, or CPI with out food and energy. These two indicators can be made into a powerful inflation and deflation indicator. The red line in the chart below is the unemployment rate flipped upside down and then added to the core PCE. When the red line is rising, this is a period of inflation (or reflation), when the red line is falling this is a period of deflation (or disinflation). If you notice when the red line falls below zero a official US recession is called, when this is the case the red line is saying deflation forces are strong.

The light blue line is the yield curve between the 2 yr and the 10 yr treasury interest rate, when this line falls below zero this means the 2 yr rate is higher than the 10 yr rate, or a yield curve inversion. This inversion signals with a high conviction that deflation forces are near. But how near? Typically there is about 18 months between the initial yield curve inversion and a confirmed deflationary period (or recession). Therefore in the chart the light blue line has been moved forward 18 months. Currently the light blue line is forecasting a strong deflationary period near 2023/24. Therefore there is a recession warning for late 2023 or early 2024. Indicator says recession risks are growing and Powell should consider a pause in hiking rates to avoid a strong deflationary period (or recession). This is best way to get a a soft landing, act now and pause.

Funny thing is 2024 is a presidential election year, it is never good for the sitting president to have a recession in the year of the election. Hmmm, is Powell and Trump working together (ha)!

Chart 1

The above chart includes the unemployment rate. Therefore if you can forecast this indicator you can determine the likely hood of how deep the coming deflationary period may be. In the chart below the red line is the unemployment rate inverted (upside down). The red line trends very well with consumer sentiment (grey line) and the housing units for sale ratio (dark blue line), these lines suggest the red line forecast is for a rapid rise in unemployment. Higher unemployment means deflationary forces will show up very quickly. The indicator below is very bearish for employment, suggesting Powell will have to consider the accelerating deflationary forces in his monetary policy measures to avoid a hard landing.

Chart 2

Conclusion: Deflationary forces will accelerate over the next 3 to 6 months. The FED will have to change course from tight to loose monetary policy very soon, or they will allow the US to enter a deep recession in 2023/24.

Original Post: https://ift.tt/D34marW

Tuesday, 30 August 2022

RTT browsing latest..

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.

The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.

Date Found: Sunday, 12 June 2022, 11:34:46 PM

Comment: TweetDeck

Date Found: Sunday, 12 June 2022, 11:36:26 PM

Comment: Kantro (@MichaelKantro) / Twitter

Date Found: Monday, 13 June 2022, 09:05:25 PM

Comment: TweetDeck

Date Found: Monday, 13 June 2022, 09:10:02 PM

Comment: TweetDeck

Date Found: Tuesday, 14 June 2022, 01:36:36 AM

Comment: Home / Twitter

Date Found: Tuesday, 14 June 2022, 06:49:55 PM

Comment: TweetDeck

Date Found: Thursday, 16 June 2022, 05:50:26 PM

Comment: TweetDeck

Date Found: Friday, 17 June 2022, 07:44:56 PM

Comment: TweetDeck

Date Found: Saturday, 18 June 2022, 12:06:13 AM

Comment: TweetDeck

Date Found: Saturday, 18 June 2022, 12:06:29 AM

Comment: TweetDeck

Date Found: Sunday, 19 June 2022, 07:01:34 PM

Comment: Home / Twitter

Date Found: Monday, 20 June 2022, 05:42:10 PM

Comment: TweetDeck

Date Found: Tuesday, 21 June 2022, 08:36:24 PM

Comment: Preston Pysh (@PrestonPysh) / Twitter

Date Found: Tuesday, 21 June 2022, 08:57:36 PM

Comment: TweetDeck

Date Found: Sunday, 26 June 2022, 07:23:50 PM

Comment: TweetDeck

Original Post: https://ift.tt/sq8yWBb

Sunday, 21 August 2022

Silver 2023 looks bright - Update

Silver does well when the economy is starting a recovery phase. Big shorts have to cover forcing the silver price higher.

Previous Post: Silver 2023 looks bright

The silver game changed at the bottom of the 2008 GFC crisis, US Debt to GDP exploded, making the investing component of silver as important as the industrial side of silver.

During all the silver bottoms of 2009, 2013, 2016 and 2020 the US PMI sinks and then recovers followed by a US dollar sell off.

2009 - GFC, FED and PBOC saved the world.
2013 - QE on and off.
2016 - China slow down, Nov US Elections, Trump tax cuts.
2020 - COVID crash, Fed pump.

The silver recovery in 2013 was scuttled by the strong US dollar as the Fed removed QE before other central banks in Europe and Asia. This means the silver long trade off the bottom of PMI lows has a 75% success rate.

Today the silver trade is reset. Now PMIs are falling, the dollar is strong and silver is pulling back. Rinse and repeat.

US Economic data is falling hard. Housing sentiment and PMIs are crashing. The FED has hiked short term interest rates in quick time in a all out effort to lower the US inflation figure of 9.1%. To push so hard one way suggest the swing back the other way will be an opportunity to invest.

Chart 1 - Silver, US PMIs, US Dollar, US Debt to GDP%

Silver

Keep an eye on silver and gold.

Original Post: https://ift.tt/TIlemfG

Sunday, 14 August 2022

Markets during pandemics 1918 vs 2020

It seems the market moves of inflation, debt and interest rates and very similar during once in 100 yrs pandemics.

1918 - 1920: Swine Flu Pandemic Market review
1) The shock forces the Dow to sells off (black).
2) Different news of multiple flu waves and effects sends stocks up and down.
3) Government creates debt to help resolve the crisis (light green shade).
4) Supply shortages send CPI (blue) to record heights while new money supply from new debt is present.
5) As the pandemic subsides the Fed hikes the fund rate to crush inflation (red) [Monetary Tightness].
6) Due to the over aggressive hiking of funds rate, inflation collapses very quickly.
7) The inflation collapse forces the Fed to pivot and cut rates in very quick time [Monetary easing].
8) Gold rallies on deflation (fast falling CPI) and easy monetary conditions.

During 1918 - 1920 period the economy was not as dependent on oil as it is today and the oil price remain flat during this pandemic. Also the US dollar was not the world reserve currency, the British pound was at this time.

1918

It seems history repeats in the same manner.

2020 - 2022: COVID Pandemic Market review
1) The shock forces the Dow to sells off (black).
2) Different news of multiple COVID waves and effects sends stocks up and down.
3) Government creates debt to help resolve the crisis (light green shade).
4) Supply shortages send CPI (blue) to record heights while new money supply from new debt is present.
5) As the pandemic subsides the Fed hikes the fund rate to crush inflation (red) [Monetary Tightness].

Currently 2022 August this is were we are, in the FED tightening phase.

This time oil is a large part of the world economy and the US dollar is the worlds reserve currency. The methods used to calculate US CPI in 1918 and 2020 are also very different. Plus computer trading algos tend to push markets around more so than 1920's.

Inflation excluding food and energy may collapse very quickly, however the elevated price of oil may hold up headline inflation (CPI) for a few months. But do not underestimate the deflationary damage COVID has done to the demand side of the debt heavy US economy, as this may force the FED to cut rates very quickly (monetary easing) which will likely see gold rally. The last two times the Fed (2009, 2019) cut the funds rate gold moved higher, the faster the rate cut the faster the gold rally.

Keep an eye on gold over the next 6 months.

2022