More cycle examples.
Chart 1 - Gold cycle, looks powerful.
Chart 2 - Bond and Gold effect each other.
Chart 3 - US 10 yr Interest rate (inverse bond prices)
Chart 4 - US Dollar Index
Original Post: https://ift.tt/J8wImuW
Friday, 24 March 2023
Cycle Review 2
Gold is near all time highs, but high gold prices is related to the dollar and the US long bond market cycles.
More cycle examples.
Chart 1 - Gold cycle, looks powerful.
Chart 2 - Bond and Gold effect each other.
Chart 3 - US 10 yr Interest rate (inverse bond prices)
Chart 4 - US Dollar Index
Original Post: https://ift.tt/J8wImuW
More cycle examples.
Chart 1 - Gold cycle, looks powerful.
Chart 2 - Bond and Gold effect each other.
Chart 3 - US 10 yr Interest rate (inverse bond prices)
Chart 4 - US Dollar Index
Original Post: https://ift.tt/J8wImuW
Wednesday, 15 March 2023
Cycle Review
Cycles at work, no matter the noise.
All working different fundamentals pulling and pushing prices around, yet cycles exists.
Not so much a random walk!
Original Post: https://ift.tt/vpT35VM
All working different fundamentals pulling and pushing prices around, yet cycles exists.
Not so much a random walk!
Original Post: https://ift.tt/vpT35VM
Tuesday, 28 February 2023
Math says Gold is going higher
If you lend money to some one, your primary concern is will the borrower maintains enough income to ensure interest and principle payments to you.
This is banker math 101.
Lending money to a country requires the same logic.
The red line below (Chart 1) has a simple meaning.
1) Rising : Percentage gains of federal tax receipts are greater than percentage gains of federal debt.
2) Falling : Percentage gains of federal tax receipts are less than percentage gains of federal debt.
3) Pivots : Changes in direction. Resulting in trend changes to gold and the Federal Reserve funds rate.
POINT: If the red line is rising the lenders of money to the USA are confident of interest payments, if the red line is falling confidence in receiving interest payments declines, or a sovereign debt crisis!
Lets review major pivot periods.
2001: Tax receipts collapsed going into US recession of 2001/02*
2007: Tax receipts collapsed going into US recession of 2008/09*
2015: Tax receipts collapsed going into the slump of 2016 (China slow down, US Elections)*
2023: Pending: Tax receipts are forecast to collapse in 2023 H2 (see 2s10s yield curve recession forecast)
* In these years US debt to GDP moved higher after initial slow down.
Chart 1
The red line in the chart 1 highlights the forecasting of federal tax receipts and debt are very important to the trends of gold and federal funds rate. @LukeGromen (twitter) monitors tax receipts (chart 2), and the trend leader for US tax receipts is California, USA. Forecast is that tax receipts are falling hard.
Chart 2
Falling tax receipts with out massive spending cuts results in more debt (chart 3). Just when the rest of the world does not want to buy US debt. This may force the FED to be the buyer of last resort once more.
Chart 3
Original Post: https://ift.tt/HD3AKFm
This is banker math 101.Lending money to a country requires the same logic.
The red line below (Chart 1) has a simple meaning.
1) Rising : Percentage gains of federal tax receipts are greater than percentage gains of federal debt.
2) Falling : Percentage gains of federal tax receipts are less than percentage gains of federal debt.
3) Pivots : Changes in direction. Resulting in trend changes to gold and the Federal Reserve funds rate.
POINT: If the red line is rising the lenders of money to the USA are confident of interest payments, if the red line is falling confidence in receiving interest payments declines, or a sovereign debt crisis!
Lets review major pivot periods.
2001: Tax receipts collapsed going into US recession of 2001/02*
2007: Tax receipts collapsed going into US recession of 2008/09*
2015: Tax receipts collapsed going into the slump of 2016 (China slow down, US Elections)*
2023: Pending: Tax receipts are forecast to collapse in 2023 H2 (see 2s10s yield curve recession forecast)
* In these years US debt to GDP moved higher after initial slow down.
Chart 1
The red line in the chart 1 highlights the forecasting of federal tax receipts and debt are very important to the trends of gold and federal funds rate. @LukeGromen (twitter) monitors tax receipts (chart 2), and the trend leader for US tax receipts is California, USA. Forecast is that tax receipts are falling hard.
POINT: This means the red line is about to fall hard starting ion 2023 Q1, just like the other years quoted above. Good for gold, and it will also force the FED to cut the FED Funds rate.
Chart 2
Falling tax receipts with out massive spending cuts results in more debt (chart 3). Just when the rest of the world does not want to buy US debt. This may force the FED to be the buyer of last resort once more.
Chart 3
Original Post: https://ift.tt/HD3AKFm
Tuesday, 21 February 2023
Copper showing strength
Troubles in Peru copper mines, massive future EV demand, China reopening, copper will prove to be a metal in demand.
A 10 sec look at charts says copper is moving higher, price and volume waves looks bullish, that is higher volume on the upswings than down swings. Time for investors to find copper like investments to enjoy the ride.
Chart 1
Chart 2
Chart 3
Chart 4
Original Post: https://ift.tt/4OS6jHb
A 10 sec look at charts says copper is moving higher, price and volume waves looks bullish, that is higher volume on the upswings than down swings. Time for investors to find copper like investments to enjoy the ride.
Chart 1
Chart 2
Chart 3
Chart 4
Original Post: https://ift.tt/4OS6jHb
Monday, 13 February 2023
Bitcoin accumulation is real
Richard Wyckoff told his students think of waves of price and volume. This in short is the essence of tape reading.
There are not many books which actually assist money making, yet Tim Ord book below certainly helped this site.
In the book above Tim Ord expands Richard Wyckoff logic and how to review a chart waves of price and volume. Lets use bticoin as an example (code is within readtheticker.com Analysis chart, more examples here)
The chart below uses a fixed bar period to form a 'price wave' and sums up the raw volume for each price wave. Up price waves are blue, down price waves are red.
To expand further, lets examine the consolidations A and B.
Consolidation A shows red volume higher than blue volume, blue volume is not substantial at all, hence there was little demand, little accumulation, and the consolidation result was one of re distribution to lower prices.
Consolidation B shows blue volume higher than red volume, blue volume is substantial, hence there is solid demand, strong accumulation, and this consolidation is leaning to pure accumulation which is likely to lead to higher prices (of course this pattern does not mean a spike to a new low, like a terminal shake out, is not off the table).
For those not interested in Wyckoff wizardary charts then here is a fundamental chart. Chinese juice and the change in BTC price.
Original Post: https://ift.tt/BJNj2Ef
There are not many books which actually assist money making, yet Tim Ord book below certainly helped this site.
In the book above Tim Ord expands Richard Wyckoff logic and how to review a chart waves of price and volume. Lets use bticoin as an example (code is within readtheticker.com Analysis chart, more examples here)
The chart below uses a fixed bar period to form a 'price wave' and sums up the raw volume for each price wave. Up price waves are blue, down price waves are red.
To expand further, lets examine the consolidations A and B.
Consolidation A shows red volume higher than blue volume, blue volume is not substantial at all, hence there was little demand, little accumulation, and the consolidation result was one of re distribution to lower prices.
Consolidation B shows blue volume higher than red volume, blue volume is substantial, hence there is solid demand, strong accumulation, and this consolidation is leaning to pure accumulation which is likely to lead to higher prices (of course this pattern does not mean a spike to a new low, like a terminal shake out, is not off the table).
For those not interested in Wyckoff wizardary charts then here is a fundamental chart. Chinese juice and the change in BTC price.
Original Post: https://ift.tt/BJNj2Ef
Sunday, 5 February 2023
Bitcoin has found its natural vibration
Gann said everything finds its natural vibration, its manner, its own characteristics.
In the chart below, you can see price bouncing off walls of support and resistance (red channel lines), this shows price has 'managed moves', completed by very large players.
Of course channels can change over time, and move on different price angles (speed of advance). You can find these channels by simple trial and error over price. The more hits of price near support and resistance the more likely you have found the channel that is dominate.
Yes you can do the same with sine wave cycle analysis, but here we are using channels.
Chart 1 - BTC weekly
Original Post: https://ift.tt/LD6gfVQ
W D Gann's superlative skill was his ability to forecast accurately the stock and commodity markets. His forecasting method was based upon what he called the Law of Vibration. Almost a hundred years (August 8th 1908) ago Gann made this most important discoveries, if not his most important discovery.
W D Gann Quote (Ticker Interview, more here)
..“Vibration is fundamental; nothing is exempt from this law; it is universal, therefore applicable to every class of phenomena on the globe"…."After years of patient study I have proven to my entire satisfaction, as well as demonstrated to others, that vibration explains every possible phase and condition of the market”..
In the chart below, you can see price bouncing off walls of support and resistance (red channel lines), this shows price has 'managed moves', completed by very large players.
Of course channels can change over time, and move on different price angles (speed of advance). You can find these channels by simple trial and error over price. The more hits of price near support and resistance the more likely you have found the channel that is dominate.
Yes you can do the same with sine wave cycle analysis, but here we are using channels.
Chart 1 - BTC weekly
Original Post: https://ift.tt/LD6gfVQ
Wednesday, 25 January 2023
Silver shorts must be worried
Gold is tickling new all time highs yet silver is 50% away from all time highs, silver shorts are ripe for an attack.
Gold is moving up with JPY and EUR, gold in USD terms will soon follow.
Backwardation stress in silver is showing a bullish signal set up.
Silver should be at least $15 USD higher, near $30 to $40 USD now!
Original Post: https://ift.tt/ioF7nAg
Gold is moving up with JPY and EUR, gold in USD terms will soon follow.
Backwardation stress in silver is showing a bullish signal set up.
Silver should be at least $15 USD higher, near $30 to $40 USD now!
Original Post: https://ift.tt/ioF7nAg
Thursday, 19 January 2023
Is FED balance sheet expansion on the table in 2023?
Will the FED cash bazooka be used to balance the US books in 2023?
Note: Members can keep up with the news on these subjects via our RTT Plus commentary service.
Chart 1 - US Deficit 2023 Forecast +$2 Trillion
The U.S. ran about a US$1.4 trillion deficit in 2022, this will swell to US$2.5 trillion in 2023 (dotted black line, left axis).
Here is some big numbers why:
- Interest on the debt is going up with higher rates adding about US$200 billion.
- In 2022 about US$600 billion in capital gains tax got paid and that won't happen in 2023.
- There was an 8.7% increase in social security etc. that adds about US$120 billion.
- Then you have student loan forgiveness and Ukraine aid so we can easily go to a US$2.5 trillion deficit.
- If a recession sets in, tax receipts will go down too. This would likely push the deficit near or over $3 trillion
More..
The orange line is the year over year value change purchase of US Treasuries (UST) by foreign and domestic institutions. The difference between the orange and black line are the unsold UST. These unsold USTs are purchased mostly buy the US Federal reserve (the blue line, now over $8 trillion) and placed on their balance sheet. Notice how before the 2008 GFC the USA had no trouble selling its debt (or USTs). A visible loss in confidence.
Chart 2 - Foreigners buying US Treasuries
A strong US dollar deters foreign investors from buying USTs. Manipulating the US dollar down makes the US debt (USTs) more attractive, a weaker US dollar also allows are larger quantity of USTs to be sold, resulting in less unsold USTs for the Federal Reserve to buy. A larger 2023 US deficit will place huge pressure on the US dollar.
Chart 3 - Debasement of money is a reduction of purchasing power.
Investors can protect their purchasing power by investing in hard money. Bitcoin (BTC) is a most volatile hard money asset, and will do well if the US Federal Reserve if forced to once again buy USTs (or QE) in 2023 (and 2024/25).
Original Post: https://ift.tt/bQkZdGm
Note: Members can keep up with the news on these subjects via our RTT Plus commentary service.
Chart 1 - US Deficit 2023 Forecast +$2 Trillion
The U.S. ran about a US$1.4 trillion deficit in 2022, this will swell to US$2.5 trillion in 2023 (dotted black line, left axis).
Here is some big numbers why:
- Interest on the debt is going up with higher rates adding about US$200 billion.
- In 2022 about US$600 billion in capital gains tax got paid and that won't happen in 2023.
- There was an 8.7% increase in social security etc. that adds about US$120 billion.
- Then you have student loan forgiveness and Ukraine aid so we can easily go to a US$2.5 trillion deficit.
- If a recession sets in, tax receipts will go down too. This would likely push the deficit near or over $3 trillion
More..
The orange line is the year over year value change purchase of US Treasuries (UST) by foreign and domestic institutions. The difference between the orange and black line are the unsold UST. These unsold USTs are purchased mostly buy the US Federal reserve (the blue line, now over $8 trillion) and placed on their balance sheet. Notice how before the 2008 GFC the USA had no trouble selling its debt (or USTs). A visible loss in confidence.
POINT: A 2023 US deficit over +$2 trillion will force the FED to once more buy US debt (USTs) or QE. More monetary debasement for the hard money markets (gold, silver, bitcoin) to absorb.
Chart 2 - Foreigners buying US Treasuries
A strong US dollar deters foreign investors from buying USTs. Manipulating the US dollar down makes the US debt (USTs) more attractive, a weaker US dollar also allows are larger quantity of USTs to be sold, resulting in less unsold USTs for the Federal Reserve to buy. A larger 2023 US deficit will place huge pressure on the US dollar.
Chart 3 - Debasement of money is a reduction of purchasing power.
Investors can protect their purchasing power by investing in hard money. Bitcoin (BTC) is a most volatile hard money asset, and will do well if the US Federal Reserve if forced to once again buy USTs (or QE) in 2023 (and 2024/25).
Original Post: https://ift.tt/bQkZdGm
Thursday, 12 January 2023
Hot pick for 2023 - 2
This is pick number 2. It is number 2 as the volatility is extreme and a new low is not off the table.
Ethereum is likely to recover off its lows, however unlikely to make new highs in 2023.
Some points:
- Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are managing supply shocks (BTC - MT Cox coin release, ETH - Stacking release post merge) to ensure price recovers.
- Big down moves end on big bad news, the FTX crash should be the bad news to end the crypto sell off (well pending).
- New liquidity is arriving to world markets via the Chinese re opening and a lower US dollar.
- The FED's balance sheet reduction is being offset by the Dept of Treasury (Yellen) use of the TGA account.
- The reduction of world wealth via Bonds, Crypto, World Stock markets is near $30 trillion USD, the damage has been done to lower inflation concerns. The inflation fix is working.
- The greatest pain trade is for sold off risk on markets to recover.
- The US has a balance of payments issue in 2023, who will buy excess USTs. The FED of course!
Chart ETH - Notice how $ETH moves between green channel support and resistance lines.
Original Post: https://ift.tt/jhC8mQw
Ethereum is likely to recover off its lows, however unlikely to make new highs in 2023.
Some points:
- Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are managing supply shocks (BTC - MT Cox coin release, ETH - Stacking release post merge) to ensure price recovers.
- Big down moves end on big bad news, the FTX crash should be the bad news to end the crypto sell off (well pending).
- New liquidity is arriving to world markets via the Chinese re opening and a lower US dollar.
- The FED's balance sheet reduction is being offset by the Dept of Treasury (Yellen) use of the TGA account.
- The reduction of world wealth via Bonds, Crypto, World Stock markets is near $30 trillion USD, the damage has been done to lower inflation concerns. The inflation fix is working.
- The greatest pain trade is for sold off risk on markets to recover.
- The US has a balance of payments issue in 2023, who will buy excess USTs. The FED of course!
Chart ETH - Notice how $ETH moves between green channel support and resistance lines.
Original Post: https://ift.tt/jhC8mQw
Friday, 30 December 2022
Hot pick for 2023
Stock pickers are now making predictions for 2023, RTT's sector market call is related to hard money.
For two years GDXJ has failed to make new yearly highs. 2023 should be its year.
The good news is all the accumulation over a 6 year period (2014 - 2020) has not been divested, we know this as the volume over 2021/22 is very light and no new yearly lows have been made. This is basic Wyckoff accumulation logic and the chart below shows this well. The point is GDXJ investors are holding and waiting for new yearly highs.
GDXJ will require gold, silver and stocks to do well for gains in 2023. Or more simply the US dollar will have to be weaker through out 2023.
Retail investors should place GDXJ on their watch list, and wait for daily and weekly price action to show the market whales are moving price higher to new ground. In other worlds a Wyckoff sign of strength.
Watching and waiting ..
Yamana Gold is a large market cap stock within the GDXJ ETF.
Yamana Gold Inc is a gold and silver producer that is headquartered in Toronto, Canada. The firm has operations in Canada, Brazil, Chile, and Argentina. Its shares are also traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
Yamana Gold Inc. mineral resources as of 2021 stand at 176 million tonnes. Out of these, the Jeronimo resources constitute the largest chunk, as they stand at 95 million tonnes. The firm's mineral reserves of gold are 388 million tonnes, and its proven and probable gold reserves are 758 million tonnes.
Via Yahoo.com
Original Post: https://ift.tt/26fpt9T
For two years GDXJ has failed to make new yearly highs. 2023 should be its year.
The good news is all the accumulation over a 6 year period (2014 - 2020) has not been divested, we know this as the volume over 2021/22 is very light and no new yearly lows have been made. This is basic Wyckoff accumulation logic and the chart below shows this well. The point is GDXJ investors are holding and waiting for new yearly highs.
GDXJ will require gold, silver and stocks to do well for gains in 2023. Or more simply the US dollar will have to be weaker through out 2023.
Retail investors should place GDXJ on their watch list, and wait for daily and weekly price action to show the market whales are moving price higher to new ground. In other worlds a Wyckoff sign of strength.
Watching and waiting ..
Yamana Gold is a large market cap stock within the GDXJ ETF.
Yamana Gold Inc is a gold and silver producer that is headquartered in Toronto, Canada. The firm has operations in Canada, Brazil, Chile, and Argentina. Its shares are also traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
Yamana Gold Inc. mineral resources as of 2021 stand at 176 million tonnes. Out of these, the Jeronimo resources constitute the largest chunk, as they stand at 95 million tonnes. The firm's mineral reserves of gold are 388 million tonnes, and its proven and probable gold reserves are 758 million tonnes.
Via Yahoo.com
Original Post: https://ift.tt/26fpt9T
Tuesday, 20 December 2022
Liquidity Cycle to Bottom in 2023 - Update
The Pied piper bearish news scares many uninformed investors out of their positions, but is history about to repeat and another risk on period is soon to be born.
Previous Post: Liquidity Cycle to Bottom in 2023
CAUTION: Before we get too bullish, no one knows if another risk off low in due or how bad it may be.
But this does not mean informed investors can not accumulate positions in good assets on long term trends while they are on sale.
The chart below (DXY cycle vs Dow Cycle) shows 5 out of 5 wins for risk on, will it be 6 out of 6?
Watching and waiting ...
Original Post: https://ift.tt/ZIqo318
Previous Post: Liquidity Cycle to Bottom in 2023
CAUTION: Before we get too bullish, no one knows if another risk off low in due or how bad it may be.
But this does not mean informed investors can not accumulate positions in good assets on long term trends while they are on sale.
The chart below (DXY cycle vs Dow Cycle) shows 5 out of 5 wins for risk on, will it be 6 out of 6?
Watching and waiting ...
Original Post: https://ift.tt/ZIqo318
Wednesday, 14 December 2022
Love of property investment will die
When the cost of property finance doubles the asset prices will suffer.
A bond crisis will arrive to the world largest bond market post 2024. Higher mortgages rates in 2022 was just a teaser, double digit mortgage rates are coming in 2024/25. Central bankers will not be able to hold back the inflation push in bond yields.
Why?
Well the funding of the US Government by US Treasuries is a function of low inflation and low interest rates, and low inflation is dependent on low energy costs. If you frustrate the energy supply (and food) you will get shortages, shortages lead to demand and supply issues which result in higher prices for longer and inflation is the result.
Lots of moving parts, start your education here.
Long term cycles on the US 10 yr suggest decade lows rates are in.
Original Post: https://ift.tt/YEKMmsI
A bond crisis will arrive to the world largest bond market post 2024. Higher mortgages rates in 2022 was just a teaser, double digit mortgage rates are coming in 2024/25. Central bankers will not be able to hold back the inflation push in bond yields.
POINT: 2023 will be the last year of grace before world wide mortgage rates go nuts.
Why?
Well the funding of the US Government by US Treasuries is a function of low inflation and low interest rates, and low inflation is dependent on low energy costs. If you frustrate the energy supply (and food) you will get shortages, shortages lead to demand and supply issues which result in higher prices for longer and inflation is the result.
POINT: This of course means if you tame energy supplies, then you will tame inflation.
Lots of moving parts, start your education here.
Long term cycles on the US 10 yr suggest decade lows rates are in.
Original Post: https://ift.tt/YEKMmsI
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