Bitcoin Swings Down to Support

Come on! Seriously do you think a 400% rally for Bitcoin was going to be given to the public easily. Without any pain! Come on muppets!


The uniformed (public) buy when price is rising or breaking new highs, the informed buy when price is falling or breaking lows.

The informed have to do it this way as they are large volume players and the only way they can buy large volume is to create chaos. The chaos brings to the market the weak holders and a forced sell. Price is moved to where the volume can be accumulated, in a bull trend that is down to critical support.

Of course if price is in a true bull market the 'chaos' created should not break critical long term trend signals, the short and intermediate term signals are fair game. The next few weeks will confirm or deny the large players position on the trend of this market, bull or bear. Time will tell. 

It is very typical that these price support tests are around option expiration (Jan 21/28) and FED FOMC decisions (Jan 26), just enough chaos to get the desired response from policy makers. 


Chart BTC with ETH

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Date Found: Saturday, 18 December 2021, 04:43:56 PM

Comment: @100trillionUSD Bitcoin needs a small miracle for a 100K Christmas. Will I ditch S2F model if this does not happen? Nah, I actually like being at the lower bands. In fact I published the model at the lower bands in March 2019 with btc below 4K.

Date Found: Saturday, 18 December 2021, 05:03:03 PM

Comment: @crossbordercap What Does 2022 Hold? Thinking about alternative research for 2022? Consider Global Liquidity, proven to be the main driver of asset markets .We have been the go-to source for understanding and monitoring Global Liquidity for more than 25 years

Date Found: Sunday, 09 January 2022, 05:07:37 AM

Comment: TweetDeck

Date Found: Sunday, 09 January 2022, 05:08:58 AM

Comment: TweetDeck

Date Found: Monday, 10 January 2022, 04:59:35 AM

Comment: TweetDeck

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US Dollar Short Term Cycle Peak Near - Update

The short term US Dollar cycle peak is upon us, it is time for capital flows to rule the direction of the DXY.


Previous Post: US Dollar Short Term Cycle Peak Near

Capital flows and interest rate differentials move currency around.

If capital flows take over, then they DXY is going into the 80's at least. Of course hiking rates 4 times is easier on the world when the DXY is near 80 rather than 95. A lot if US debt held by emerging markets is at risk otherwise. And yes a lower US dollar in early 2022 helps China out, as it supports world demand, and in late 2022 Chinese stimulus is expected. Nice!

The US dollar cycle is rolling over in the short term.

Some people do not want the US dollar to fall as it has been great to be long the US Dollar trades. JP Morgan Jamie Dimon says he could see 6 to 7 rate hikes in 2022. Of course silver shorts unwinding will not be great for the Bank of America and/or JP Morgan. There are too many open trades requiring the US dollar to stay trending higher. Oops, looks like a leadership change is about to occur in 2022. 


This sector is worth watching.

2022 is going to be fun!




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Here is how Silver gets to $100

Why not, silver to $100. Here we will use the same play book as the BearStearns 2007 bust, after all history does rhyme.


Reference Ted Butler articles: Another Stunning OCC Report, More Serious Than I Thought

Extract from 'More Serious Than I Thought.

..."The seriousness of this issue is rooted in the scale of the numbers. If Bank of America is short 800 million oz of silver, as the data in the OCC report strongly suggests, then that means every dollar higher in the price of silver translated into an $800 million open (unrealized) loss. Every $10 move equates to an $8 billion loss. A hundred dollar move higher from here equates to an $80 billion loss. Can BofA fund such losses or will taxpayers be called upon to bail the bank out? Even the slightest hint of such a development should be enough to require immediate clarification from the regulators and BofA and there’s a lot more than the slightest hint in the OCC report."...

More here:

RTT Comments: Here is how this could all play out over the next few years!

Why not! 


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Date Found: Wednesday, 13 October 2021, 05:30:51 PM

Comment: @TFMetals #NotTransitory #stagflation

Date Found: Wednesday, 20 October 2021, 06:10:29 PM

Comment: @TaviCosta The game is only getting started. Major catch up for silver still ahead of us.

Date Found: Wednesday, 20 October 2021, 06:12:20 PM

Comment: @TaviCosta Interesting how it’s actually quite normal for gold to struggle after breaking out to new highs. We saw a similar price behavior in 1978 and 2008. More importantly: During both times, gold prices came screaming back and immediately resumed its long-term trend.

Date Found: Tuesday, 02 November 2021, 04:53:53 PM

Comment: @TaviCosta A domino effect. The steep rise in Ammonia prices suggests agricultural commodities are the next ones to move.

Date Found: Tuesday, 02 November 2021, 04:55:45 PM

Comment: @TaviCosta Back to fundamentals: Gold and silver miners have never looked this cheap relative to the S&P 500. Their free-cash-flow yield is almost twice the overall market. The value and growth proposition embedded in miners today is unmatched by any other time in history.

Date Found: Sunday, 07 November 2021, 04:54:24 PM

Comment: Well this would be a rush!

Date Found: Monday, 08 November 2021, 07:09:32 PM

Comment: "As inflation continues to develop in the economy, see below the incredible link between #silver and CPI since the Global Financial Crisis." highlights @TaviCosta

Date Found: Tuesday, 09 November 2021, 06:48:41 PM

Comment: @AltcoinDailyio The Economist magazine depicting Cardano, Ethereum, Bitcoin & Litecoin logos on the cover.

Date Found: Wednesday, 10 November 2021, 06:04:50 AM

Comment: @TaviCosta Economic deceleration is likely coming from Asia and spreading to the rest of the world. We are now seeing a significant number of negative surprises in the macro data relative to estimates.So now I ask: If economic growth continues to decelerate while inflation remains historically elevated, what will the Fed do? The set of monetary and fiscal policies needed to fix one problem would worsen the other.

Date Found: Wednesday, 10 November 2021, 09:41:35 PM

Comment: @TaviCosta Now imagine adding Brainard to this: • +400B of QE • 0% rates • Twin deficits/GDP at double digits • No capex growth among commodity producers • Green revolution & ESG policies in full mode This is a macro regime change & gold remains historically undervalued.

Date Found: Friday, 12 November 2021, 04:45:34 PM

Comment: @TaviCosta Time for some quick math: The monthly price of gold is now above its 2011 highs. If miners were to re-test the same levels, it would imply a 61% appreciation from here. Don't forget: The fundamental story behind these companies today is unquestionably better than back then.

Date Found: Saturday, 13 November 2021, 12:29:51 AM

Comment: @TaviCosta To recall: The steep rise in Ammonia prices suggests agricultural commodities are the next ones to move. It’s a domino effect

Date Found: Wednesday, 17 November 2021, 09:10:20 PM

Comment: @GeorgeGammon Vax rate is the orange line, cases are the black line.@ThomasEWoods Vax mandates are being sold to public by claiming they stop/reduce transmission. This, along with everything else the central planners say, is complete BS. It’s not about health…

Date Found: Wednesday, 17 November 2021, 09:14:07 PM

Comment: @crossbordercap Major point to consider for #dollar and #dxy is that US #Fed is easily the loosest of the major #CentralBanks (most since Y2K). In 6/8 occasions

Date Found: Thursday, 02 December 2021, 07:44:37 AM

Comment: @Bellehos THE 10-YEAR.A history of DOUBLE TOPS that have DIVERGENCE.The current DIVERGENCE is SICK. This tells me there is a HIGH PROBABILITY that we see a big BOND RALLY.

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Crypto heading higher

The end of the year is here. Central banks have made their moves, big money is looking for the next 100% move and Crypto looks like it has higher highs in store.


The 2021 world wide interest rate changes are minimal, and the negative yield (interest rate less head line inflation) is deep therefore the cost of capital remains very low. The oil price peak suggests inflation will soon peak and roll over. Wages are slowing creeping higher but do not hurt yet. Chinese credit impulse (Chart 3) has bottomed and looking to turn up. The first 6 months of 2022 looks great for higher risk on assets. 

The recent 7 month consolidation of Crypto has allowed many who missed the break out from the March 2020 lows to accumulate and soon higher highs will reward those who held on.



Chart 1 - Bitcoin loves to bounce off the green channel lines.

Chart 2 - Ethereum has been holding well to the blue channel lines.

Chart 3 - Chinese Credit Impulse looking to turn up

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US Reserve Asset vs Gold and Silver

Gold and silver move relative to US interest rates and the US Dollar.


So lets use a custom index of US dollar and US 10 yr interest rates and see what happens.

shrink

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Gold and Silver stock cycle bottom near

There are some regular cycles at play with the Gold and Silver stock leaders.


The metal stocks cycles in Australia lead the rest of world metal stocks. This is because you can make gains on the stock prices as well as the currency price (AUDUSD), this is the worlds first go to gold stock.

The US FED has just announced inflation is not transitory but is structural. This opens the door for inflation hedging strategies, and gold and silver stocks will be part of this play.

Chart 1 - This shows ASX Newcrest Mining near cycle lows, this is important as Wyckoff logic investors will be watching for 'whale' buying and accumulation swings up and down. Yes we may see a few more weeks of price moving along range bound lows but the cycle does say 2022 Q1 should be the start of higher prices for this sector. The red and green cycles do have a good track record, so why not now. Keep an eye on the cycle.

Chart 2 - XAU cycle lags NCM cycle. Please notice how well it cycles.

Chart 3 - XAU channels show the path way forward.

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Gold and Silver still working higher

Using Gann Angles from zero we can time the next run up, and it is near.


The last two days gold and silver are down on the back of central bankers talking the US Dollar higher in a attempt to off set inflation. A rising dollar is a form of tightening. Also the talk of a faster 'taper' has sent interest rates higher. But Luke Gromen knows this cant not last.

@LukeGromen Externally-financed twin deficit nations with insufficient external financing (ie the US, not Japan) cannot abide rising real rates for long.

RTT Comments: What this means a higher US Dollar makes it harder for those outside the US to buy the vast quantity of US Treasuries. 

US dollar based debt has jumped from $200T to $330T in one short year. Higher US interest rates will hurt those who have to pay on these loans. The US Government interest expense is sky rocketing, the interest expense is equal to the US Defense budget.

If the trend continues stuff will begin to break. Jay Powell has just been re appointed as Fed Chairman and you can bet a deal was done with the DEM's the FED must not let the markets blow up before US Mid terms late 2022. Interest rates can not go too much higher, the Feds fat finger is near. More money printing is near.   



Gold with Gann Angles from Zero

Silver with Gann Angles from Zero

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Date Found: Saturday, 21 August 2021, 12:40:59 AM

Comment: @TaviCosta Wild divergence. Major decline in Asian stocks suggests a systemic selloff in global equities ahead.

Date Found: Saturday, 21 August 2021, 10:23:51 PM

Comment: @crescatkevin With CPI understated and rising inflation unlikely to be transitory, the timing to buy undervalued small cap precious metals miners and sell overvalued large cap growth stocks is probably as good as it gets.

Date Found: Tuesday, 24 August 2021, 05:46:05 PM

Comment: Precious Metals At Their Cheapest Levels Relative To Other Commodities Since 2009 (@TaviCosta)

Date Found: Sunday, 19 September 2021, 12:39:37 AM

Comment: @TaviCosta You know something is wrong in China when industrial production of steel is at its lowest levels since the Global Financial Crisis. This is much more serious than the meltdown of a massive property developer. These are the signs of a countrywide debt problem now unravelling.

Date Found: Sunday, 19 September 2021, 08:10:50 PM

Comment: @TaviCosta Very important chart. Chinese growth stocks have led the changes in CNY. It now suggests that a yuan devaluation is still ahead. An illustration of how the shock in the financial markets of a highly levered economy tends to be the precursor of further monetary disorder.

Date Found: Wednesday, 22 September 2021, 10:34:25 PM

Comment: @BlackbeardRR The PPI 7y ROC may naturally augment each month from October 2021 - February of 2023 (as a result of a falling PPI from 2014-2016). Transitory, I'm sure. Where will all these input costs go?

Date Found: Wednesday, 22 September 2021, 11:31:31 PM

Comment: @OrdOracle FOMC meeting tomorrow, could produce move in markets. Monthly Inflation/Deflation ratio Bollinger Bands are pinching suggesting large move in Gold market may be forthcoming.

Date Found: Thursday, 30 September 2021, 09:03:23 PM

Comment: China Excess Reserve Ratio and Credit Impulse (Leading Indicator) – ISABELNET

Date Found: Thursday, 30 September 2021, 09:05:44 PM

Comment: More Chinese Juice Coming

Date Found: Friday, 01 October 2021, 09:57:44 PM

Comment: @TaviCosta Total capitulation. Silver miners’ ETFs just had their worst quarterly outflows ever. Almost 3x as much as what we saw during the pandemic crash. These companies have become insane deep-value opportunities. Time to step up.

Date Found: Saturday, 02 October 2021, 04:26:12 AM

Comment: @TaviCosta Silver has some major catch up to do. Overall commodities are leading the way and look ready for another big move to the upside after consolidating.

Date Found: Wednesday, 06 October 2021, 01:56:11 AM

Comment: (1) ISABELNET (@ISABELNET_SA) / Twitter

Date Found: Wednesday, 06 October 2021, 05:33:00 PM

Comment: @TaviCosta Repeat after me: The Fed is trapped

Date Found: Thursday, 07 October 2021, 04:31:15 PM

Comment: @IGWTreport #IGWTChartbook2021 One reason for the slow increase of inflation can be seen in “US Velocity of Money, 1904-2021” money velocity plummeted. This is about to change.

Date Found: Monday, 11 October 2021, 04:13:27 PM

Comment: Ready to move!

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