Cycle Review - Ethereum

Some investors believe Ethereum (ETH) can over take Bitcoin (BTC) in market cap during this bull cycle.
 

The cycles (Chart 1) below are part of readtheticker.com tool kit, they were found with the 'Bartels' mathematical formula. The better the Bartels score the better the fit for the cycle to price. Add in basic channels and support and resistance and a chart reader can see price targets for new lows and highs. The leading cycle for ETH suggest a low is near.

Ethereum is currently upgrading to EIP1559.

Chart 1

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RTT Plus Bulletin

RTT Plus private blog answer these questions over the last two weeks.


Ending: 2021-06-19

- Metal stocks very bullish after gold smash
- FED taper talk vs Basel 3
- Dollar devaluatioin before end of 2021
- COVID, Vaccine insight (off topic)
- The next play for the deep sate (off topic)
- The debt loaded USA can not break these economic stats


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Gold Seasonals and T Theory Cycle Review

Gold tends to slump at the start of the US summer, and will Basel 3 make a difference this year?


Basel 3 has removed a large chuck of paper shorts off the LBMA, of course this is for the banks only, the hedge funds can continue to suppress gold with paper shorts. The true effect of Basel 3 may not be known for some month. 

A typical pattern in the metals is a smash down just before a major rally, just like now, so what is next?

The video highlights seasonal patterns and some fixed period cycles of interest. 

Chart in Video

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Australia to enter a very sad period - Update

Lets add some dates to the bearish forecast of the ASX200.


Previous post on the subject and a more detailed Ewave construction can be found here.

SHORT ANSWER

The vertical light red shaded area (chart 1) is the T Theory forecast for the final price top (end of B wave). This period is some where between Nov 2021 and July 2022. This zone is the confluence of equal time cycles as presented on the chart. Notice how this note refers to a extreme price top and not a crash or bear market starting date. Price can consolidate for some time after a extreme high is posted. 


MORE

1) The ASX200 (!AORD) is highly correlated to the US NYSE index.
2) The US (and the world) are entering into a period of above average inflation.
3) Interest rate increases, either by the central bank or market forces, can negatively adjust risk on positions. 
4) Overall equity market positioning is extremely bullish and vulnerable.

Keep this chart in mind going into 2022, also be aware of the US mid terms late 2022.

2022 is going to be very interesting. Funny how the years ending with 9,0,1,2,3,4 (end of a decade) can also be major cycle end dates. 

Chart 1

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Date Found: Thursday, 31 December 2020, 04:38:42 PM

Comment: Biingo.. it is what it is, know the playing field

Date Found: Thursday, 07 January 2021, 03:08:04 AM

Comment: @RaoulGMI "No, it can't be... the prices and price structure are identical in log terms too??? WTF? But BTC is the one truth...this cant be!"

Date Found: Tuesday, 12 January 2021, 05:27:14 PM

Comment: Pattern 1,2,3,4 count ... maybe, maybe not!

Date Found: Wednesday, 13 January 2021, 03:03:39 AM

Comment: $100k, and maybe an over shoot... the sideaways for 3 years, maybe a under shoot...as well

Date Found: Wednesday, 13 January 2021, 04:09:59 PM

Comment: The Fed is trapped. They want robust economic activity and soaring asset prices....This can only occur with more debt and leverage. To make existing and additional debt manageable and appealing, they must reduce interest rates. With interest rates near zero, inflation becomes a more critical tool. QE and recent programs with the Treasury are how they hope to generate inflation. The graph below comparing QE to GDP shows the effect of the Fed’s herculean efforts to keep the debt

Date Found: Thursday, 14 January 2021, 05:09:30 PM

Comment: SP500 ratio to Raw Commodity Index (no oil) : OMG!

Date Found: Thursday, 14 January 2021, 05:10:32 PM

Comment: Chinese are pumping the easy money in!

Date Found: Thursday, 14 January 2021, 06:24:59 PM

Comment: US Deficits for ever! US dollar must go down

Date Found: Saturday, 16 January 2021, 05:14:08 PM

Comment: Wieteke Middelkoop Almost 75% of all bonds yield less than 1% When money loses its value, money dies .. RTT.. hence gold,silver and Bitcoin

Date Found: Saturday, 16 January 2021, 06:10:47 PM

Comment: Very USD bearish

Date Found: Saturday, 16 January 2021, 09:35:09 PM

Comment: Looks like BTC could run long and hard for 6 to 12 months

Date Found: Tuesday, 26 January 2021, 06:23:46 PM

Comment: Bubble update: parabolic phase youtu.be/LF_rpXU2dy4

Date Found: Thursday, 28 January 2021, 03:27:52 AM

Comment: The GameStop Infinite Money Glitch Explained youtu.be/8YrnTbzuOWM

Date Found: Sunday, 31 January 2021, 01:11:21 AM

Comment: It takes about 6 to 12 months before the outsiders work this out!

Date Found: Sunday, 31 January 2021, 04:41:38 PM

Comment: Global flow adjustment looks very bullish!

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Bitcoin to $200,000 Review

Here is why BTCUSD to $200,000 is now on the table in 2021.


During a period of heavy money printing with higher debt levels the FED must choose between two of the following to avoid a collapse:

1) Higher stock prices.
2) Keeping the economy and employment positive.
3) US dollar strength.

The above is known as the economic 'Dollar Trinity' choice.

The FED and the DEM's (US mid terms 2022) will choose a higher stock market and keeping the economy positive, this means the US dollar is due to suffer weakness.

Bitcoin will do well during US dollar weakness. But how high will BTCUSD go in 2021, lets see how Max Keiser worked out his $225,000 USD price target for 2021. 

POINT: Channels drawn correctly are the path for price action.

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Gold Gann Angle Update

Gold, debt, inflation, USD and interest rates are in the same bowel,  if interest rates are suppressed then it is dollar down and gold up.


Chart 1 - Gold has been running up the Gann 1:4 blue angle. Notice how corrections are bouncing of this Gann angle (red arrows). 

Chart 2 - Inflation narrative grows within CEO and CFOs within SP500 companies. Inflation higher than interest rates is known as negative real yield and USD bearish and gold bullish.

Chart 3 - The FED is the larger player in the UST market, this folks is Yield Curve Management (or control). Very USD bearish. 

Chart 4 - The US dollar cycle is running to a new low, a possible 'plunge spike' or 'selling climax' lower is on the table. DXY to $85 is -10% down. The RTTDPO (indicator 2) line a 2x the cycle period or 2 x 918 = 1836.

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