Kelly Heros Sgt. OddBall philosophy to read stock charts

Sgt OddBall said these famous words "Don’t hit me with them negative waves so early in the morning!".

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readtheticker.com PnF charts allows the chart reader the judge price waves of both positive and negative.

Waves are judged 3 (power), 2 (significant), 1 (above average). Blue is up, Red is down.

For each PnF wave you should judge: breaking into new ground or not, thrust, volume, net volume, strength (3, 2 or 1).

In an uptrend (mark up): You wish to see blue positive 3s and 2s controlling the trend, breaking into new higher ground with supporting volume on each bar. On any red negative waves you wish to see them fail (no further red negative bars), hopefully they are on lessor volume compared to the blue positive waves, if they do have higher volume then you wish for the volume to be absorbed and the blue positive waves take control again (as the selling was really buying, as the big boys accumulate on down bars). You do not wish to see red negative waves breaking into new lower ground on high volume and good thrust. If you do, and you are bullish, you must wait for the chart to repair.

In an downtrend (mark down): You wish to see red negative 3s and 2s controlling the trend, breaking into new lower ground with supporting volume on each bar. On any blue positive waves you wish to see them fail (no further blue positive bars), hopefully they are on lessor volume compared to the red negative waves, if they do have higher volume then you wish for the volume to be absorbed and the red negative waves take control again (as the buying was really selling, as the big boys distribute on up bars). You do not wish to see blue positive waves breaking into new higher ground on high volume and good thrust. If you do, and you are bearish, you must wait for the chart to repair.

In a sideways trend: A mix of the above, if the sideways action started on a down trend, and you hope for a reversal (accumulation) then you should to see the up trend logic appear. If the sideways action started on a up trend, and you hope for a reversal (distribution) then you should to see the down trend logic appear. If the sideways action started on a down trend, and you hope for a continuation (re distribution) then you should to see the down trend logic assert it self. If the sideways action started on a up trend, and you hope for a continuation (re accumulation) then you should to see the up trend logic assert it self.

The Sgt Odd Ball thinking of avoiding negative ways fits well with Richard Wyckoff logic

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Crude oil how low will it go? - Update

The most recent price action in crude suggests that those that were long have re adjusted their positions for a downswing.


In our previous post our lower targets are:

Notice how the current price action in crude has been seen before a plunge in price.

Why is this happening?

Short answer, too much supply. You would think lower prices would be the cure for lower prices and those who pump the stuff out of the ground would cut production, da! However they don't do this, they see lower revenues and think they need to pump more out to make up for lost revenues at a lower price, thus even more supply. Until the producers cut production (most likely at panic lows and after the banks order them) prices will fall.

Why is crude so important?

One reason is the massive amount of debt behind the producers! Another is there are whole countries relying on the crude oil price for revenues. Lower crude oil prices are dangerous. While the SP500 is at all time highs, buyback debt is huge and economic activity is not supportive of very high stock prices. A crude oil price crisis may be the Jim Rickards snow flake that stops the 'every thing is awesome' music. No wonder gold is starting to react to lower prices in crude oil.

There are some that are calling for a miraculous 'V' shaped recovery in oil, maybe, well only after those who have shorted oil have made their significant profits. A 'V' recovery may be at $35 or $30 who knows!





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On the back of the Chinese speculator

The Chinese investor class can move markets, the Anglo Saxon investor class has a serious challenger.


The Chinese government thought it was a good idea the middle class invest in stocks, what followed was the massive exponential rally in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSEC). Point: This was an approved government action.

The Chinese government sees a future for bitcoin in its monetary plan, and has cleaned up the coin exchanges, such positive noise from the government has encourage the bitcoin trend, and with nearly 50% of all transactions sourced from China the price is on its way to $5000 USD (BTCSTAMPUSD). Point: This was an approved government action.

The Chinese government encourages it citizens to invest in hard money (Gold and Silver). However it is suspected it has been China who has been the late night manipulator of the gold price (well maybe some help from the BIS and JPM in silver) to allow her to accumulate physical metal at discount prices. This wont last for ever, and when the day comes for China to wish trade to be backed by gold back notes and international trade priced in yuan (including oil), you can bet the Chinese investor will rush into the yellow metal. This will be an approved government action, as Chine will be the worlds largest holder of physical metal.

In short, the US dollar importance will been reduced. Do not be surprised when one day the gold trend mirrors SSEC and BTCSTAMPUSD as the chart below suggest.

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When does this all end - Update

How does a retail trader know when prices in the stock market are at a extreme level.


Very simply, when the price for utility stocks are extreme. When prices for water, power and gas companies are just, well, crazy! The other characteristic is to look at market leaders, to see if very high volume is present when prices charge into all time highs. This high volume represents the composite man selling to those who are very late to the party.

Who is the composite man?

Richard Wyckoff definition…"all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.”..

You may notice when making a call on the stock market, one refers to the stock market at not economic stats or FED actions for the simple reason the stock market must be judged by its own actions. Price and volume action clearly shows if the composite man releasing stock float to the public (or those very late to the party), and as the composite man is judged to be the informed money the retail trader would be wise to heed their actions.

The Dow Jones Utility stock index is near the long term upper channel, a reach to $850 would attract heavy selling and a top is very likely.

Here is an example of a leading market leader attracting selling by the composite man, the retail investor should read the tea leaves and understand that the smart money is selling down stock float inventories.

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The dow 7 year itch review

Nothing goes is a straight line for ever! After a long period of time you know something scary is coming!


Stats from the 100 years trend of Dow Jones Industrials Index

10 year cycle of years starting with a 7 on the end (1987, 1997, 2007) and years ending with a 8 on the end (1988, 1988, 2008).


During the 2years of 2017 and 2018 the odds are:

1) 20% chance the up trend will continue at the same pace with no correction greater than 12%.

2) If (1) occurs and a major correction is delayed the odds increase a 20% plus correct is very likely.

3) 80% chance the trend does not continue at same pace and will either fall or trend flat.

4) 40% chance price will trend higher or go flat, with no major corrections.

5) 60% chance some sort of correction greater than 12.5%.

6) 40% chance some sort of correction greater than 20%.

7) 40% chance some sort of correction greater than 30%.

8) 30% chance some sort of correction greater than 50%.

9) Two major bearish corrections in a row is unlikely [subject to (2) above].

Corrections come in many forms, fast or slow, no one knows what is in store this time. From above you can bet on (1) and (3).

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