Chart 1 - Gov debt holding up business activity.
Chart 2 - Gov doing all the hiring!
Chart 3 - ISM Services PMI holding up business, manufacturing recession continues (or going to Mexico)
Original Post: https://ift.tt/uCDdWmt
Monday 29 January 2024
2024 soft landing working it
Can it last? Can the US Gov keep the plates spinning until US 2024 elections.
Chart 1 - Gov debt holding up business activity.
Chart 2 - Gov doing all the hiring!
Chart 3 - ISM Services PMI holding up business, manufacturing recession continues (or going to Mexico)
Original Post: https://ift.tt/uCDdWmt
Chart 1 - Gov debt holding up business activity.
Chart 2 - Gov doing all the hiring!
Chart 3 - ISM Services PMI holding up business, manufacturing recession continues (or going to Mexico)
Original Post: https://ift.tt/uCDdWmt
Tuesday 23 January 2024
Market moving macro in 2024
It is time for the FED to hire Jordan Belfort (Wolf of WallStreet fame) to sell US government debt.
After all, Jordan Belfort is a man who can sell tea to China.
Chart 1 - The red line generates the income to pay interest on the blue line. If the rate of change of debt growth and the cost of debt are an ever increasing burden on the cash flow generated by growth, something is going to structurally break. Gold near $2,000 USD is a bargain (same price as 2011)!
Chart 2 - Here is a smarter chart of Chart 1 above. When the fat red line sinks and falls below zero, this is a period of time when the rate of change in debt growth is much faster than GDP (not adjusted for inflation). Gold says this matters. The gold price moves higher in such an environment.
Chart 3 - China CPI is in deflation (CPI below zero). The FED broke China! President Xi recently visited the USA and met with some heavy hitters to help re-inflate China. It is mostly likely to coordinate Chinese stimulus with US election year stimulus. China cannot afford the negative effects of prolonged deflation periods.
ZH summary says it all.
Original Post: https://ift.tt/JBpaRK1
After all, Jordan Belfort is a man who can sell tea to China.Chart 1 - The red line generates the income to pay interest on the blue line. If the rate of change of debt growth and the cost of debt are an ever increasing burden on the cash flow generated by growth, something is going to structurally break. Gold near $2,000 USD is a bargain (same price as 2011)!
Chart 2 - Here is a smarter chart of Chart 1 above. When the fat red line sinks and falls below zero, this is a period of time when the rate of change in debt growth is much faster than GDP (not adjusted for inflation). Gold says this matters. The gold price moves higher in such an environment.
Chart 3 - China CPI is in deflation (CPI below zero). The FED broke China! President Xi recently visited the USA and met with some heavy hitters to help re-inflate China. It is mostly likely to coordinate Chinese stimulus with US election year stimulus. China cannot afford the negative effects of prolonged deflation periods.
ZH summary says it all.
Which means China now has two options: pretend that the failed policies it has been doing (or pretending to do) so far has been successful, which it likely will until there is just too much blood on the streets, or it will finally capitulate and unleash the biggest fiscal stimulus ever seen in China: we are talking multiple trillions here, and in dollars not yuan, consequences be damned, because we are nearing the point of peak panic where Beijing will do anything at all to buy social order and stability for just a few more months. And once all those tens of trillions in Chinese deposits start fleeing, that's when the real meltup in non-fiat assets - read gold, silver, crypto, fine art, wines, etc - will truly start.
Original Post: https://ift.tt/JBpaRK1
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