Bitcoin chasing dollar weakness

News that Blackrock have high odds to run a bitcoin spot ETF, sparked BTC higher.


Maybe that was the catalyst to spark the bulls. Fundamentals had already shifted months before.

Lets look ...

Chart 1 - The lower US dollar and higher Chinese 10 yr have signaled for a while that bitcoin had room to move higher.

Chart 2 - Standard Wyckoff Accumulation story continues to build. A move to upper resistance would be health and shows the accumulation is still the head line story. 

Chart 3 - Bitcoin weaves it ways through support and resistance channels, like clock work.

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Gold and Oil fundamentals are married together

Crude oil is a very important commodity. Inflation, interest rates, and growth are all affected by it.


Oil shortages lead to higher prices, which leads to higher inflation and higher interest rates. This simple formula highlights that high oil prices are not compatible with high debt levels.

Some points

- Currently the USA federal debt to GDP% is 120%.
- US federal interest payments are likely to be over $1T in 2023 (FYI:US defense budget is $800BN).
- US federal interest payments are elevated during periods of high energy costs.
- Slower growth due to higher interest rates lowers federal tax receipts.
- High government spending while revenues are falling explodes the US federal deficit. 
- A larger US deficit results in more federal debt.
- Rinse and repeat from the top of this list.


Video 1: Significant oil shortages are coming.

Chart 1 : Gold moves higher during periods of energy inflation.

Chart 2: Oil is very Wyckoff accumulation friendly and should be on your watch list.

Chart 3: Gold support and resistance channel lines show the higher targets.

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Silver Volume Swings

Richard Wyckoff told his students think of waves of price and volume. The dog fight of bulls and bears will always resolve.



There are not many books which actually assist money making, yet Tim Ord book below certainly helped this site.

In the book above Tim Ord expands Richard Wyckoff logic and explains how to review waves of price and volume. Lets use silver ETF as an example (code is within readtheticker.com Analysis chart, more examples here)

The chart below uses a fixed bar period to form a 'price wave' and sums up the raw volume for each price wave. Up price waves are blue, down price waves are red.

Lets review the purple numbers 1 to 5 on chart 1.

(1) High volume break out rally higher, very strong demand.
Point: Sign of strength by bulls. 

(2) After a failed attempt to move higher a high volume sell off, a lot of supply, weakness confirmed with move down after swing 24.
Point: Bulls gave up and sold, some increased shorts. 

(3) A high volume sell off, shorts getting exited, breaks support, which eventually failed.
Point: A high volume test of support by the bulls, the bulls prove they are in control and the bears are shaken out when swing 9 lower fails. 

(4) High volume rally.
Point: Bears short covering and giving up, bulls accumulating at a cheaper price.

(5) High volume rally. Bulls accumulating, may be tagged a sign of strength if price gets to resistance. Point: Sign of strength in play, but a work in progress, if it stalls price maybe for more sideways churn. 



Chart 1: Silver (SLV ETF) Volume Swings

Chart 2: Silver Futures Curve

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