One day you just have to stop

How long can the working class take this sh....t!


Stop telling me everything is all ok

1) Negative interest rates
2) Negative oil prices
3) Man made COVID 19 virus
4) Fake Russian operatives
5) Fake money
6) Fake meat
7) Fake cheese
8) Fake boobs
9) Milk in my baked beans
etc

Enough is enough!

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Gold Stock Cycles

Gold stocks are the crazy ride in the markets. The swing are so great it does not matter if you miss a bullish the break out as another deep pull back allows you to enter with ease.


The good news is the (!XAU) PHLX Gold/Silver Index (in the chart below) is very friendly to price cycles. These cycles can be used for timing markets, it also makes it clear if you fight the price cycle you may be in line for a heavy draw down.

At the moment XAU price is making new 52 week highs and the blue cycle line suggest a cycle top is due, therefore it may be wise to wait for price to peak and pullback before building positions. A tactical reason (Richard Ney logic) is the big boys have been accumulating in the friendly institutional stocks and this will attract profit taking [as they do not want to get too far ahead of the wider market] easily sending down the gold stock index and components of the XAU.

The judder bar for a XAU rally is expectation of a US dollar rally. A decent US dollar rally will see gold and gold stocks pullback, but as we all know the US dollar biggest short position is the US Government (they want a lower dollar), and the biggest long position is non US dollar assets in crisis (selling assets forces the buying back of US dollars). Hence the bail outs of dollar assets in crisis.

How well the FED defends their US dollar short position will influence how well the US dollar is capped under $105 on the DXY. This is the only game in down for the next 6 months, nothing else matters.  


If price has regular cycles, why fight the cycle. readtheticker.com charting science allows you to find and monitor the cycle better and cheaper than most. Check it out via our subscription service.

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Date Found: Saturday, 07 December 2019, 02:31:07 AM

Comment: WOW!

Date Found: Saturday, 07 December 2019, 04:08:23 PM

Comment: tic tic tic

Date Found: Sunday, 08 December 2019, 12:52:56 AM

Comment: Here we go CBs buying bad debt from stupid banks!

Date Found: Thursday, 12 December 2019, 05:20:22 AM

Comment: Oh NO! Quickly look away, nothing to see here! All is well!

Date Found: Friday, 20 December 2019, 05:26:26 PM

Comment: Gold stocks Watch!

Date Found: Tuesday, 24 December 2019, 11:26:57 PM

Comment: Trend line says interest rates going to zero

Date Found: Friday, 03 January 2020, 01:19:48 AM

Comment: youtu.be/bWkyP9n0c90

Date Found: Saturday, 04 January 2020, 11:54:57 PM

Comment: JPMorgan Silver Crime Charges to NY Fed REPO Loan Ramp youtu.be/Pgjo_GYk6xA

Date Found: Sunday, 05 January 2020, 02:24:05 AM

Comment: The SP500 follows the PMI...not the other way around ...ooops

Date Found: Tuesday, 14 January 2020, 06:58:19 PM

Comment: Sp500 Earnings recession ... yet SP500 makes new highs ... FUNDAMENTALS ... who needs them!

Date Found: Saturday, 18 January 2020, 05:56:01 AM

Comment: Ray Dalio's Protege Sees 30% Move in Gold Prices or Over $2k Per Oz Gold... youtu.be/kXc3LiisZVw

Date Found: Tuesday, 21 January 2020, 05:51:26 PM

Comment: Ray Dalio: 'Cash is trash' in the 2020 market youtu.be/tZyWVxGXPHo

Date Found: Tuesday, 21 January 2020, 06:17:06 PM

Comment: All-Stars #89 Louis-Vincent Gave: All five pillars supporting the melt-u... youtu.be/vKB7dFEvpBc

Date Found: Saturday, 25 January 2020, 05:29:57 PM

Comment: .."every time the Fed tries to unwind, it gets ugly for stock prices (just like unwinding QE).",,,,

Date Found: Monday, 27 January 2020, 03:54:07 AM

Comment: ..and we go to MORE..

Original Post: https://ift.tt/34G8qn9

The Big Short movie guides us to what is next for the stock market

There is nothing new in WallStreet, it is only the players that change. Sometimes a market player or an event gets ahead of the crowd and WallStreet has to play catch up.


Previous Post Dow 2020 Crash Watch , Dow, Three strikes and your out!

It is important to understand major WallStreet players do not want to miss out on a money making moves.  

In the movie 'The Big Short' some market players got ahead of the crowd and shorted the US housing market.

When the US housing market began to crumble the majority of WallStreet was long and wrong, and losses on the longs were going to be incredible, they had to get short. WallStreet needed to load up on shorts to participate in the money making down trend.

There is a scene in the movie where Dr Michael Burry is on the phone expressing his frustration as to why the banker had marked up the housing bond index when the mortgages themselves were crashing, the index should have been marked down, of course this was banker fraud to allow the bankers themselves to short the same index as Dr Michael Burry. POINT: Wallstreet does not want to miss out on major market moves.

Roll forward to 2020 and the SP500 suffers its worst 30% down move since 1929 (Wyckoff terms this as a 'Sign of Weakness'). Wallstreet has not made any money on this move, if fact like the housing market they are long and wrong, and like 2008 they need to get short. The question is how?

The answer is simple, re look at 2001 and 2008 SP500 price actions (chart below), after price had fallen to the red line (250 weekly SMA), a bounce was organised to near the blue line (150 weekly SMA) to allow WallStreet market players to short the coming down trend.

The stock market has not had all the bad news yet, earnings slump, supply chain issues, derivative blow ups, bank risk news, c19 news. There is plenty of ammo for WallStreet to blame a down trend on while they profit with shorts. The chart below shows how we can expect a rinse and repeat of 2001 and 2008 organised bounce.

Of course the FED is printing and TRUMP is trying to get trillions passed to stimulate the economy, however will it be enough or quick enough. Some say the FED balance may need to go to $10 to $20 trillion, some say modern money theory is required. The doubt and delay around these programs will add to the market uncertainly.

The next play to watch for is the WallStreet bounce to allow shorts to be loaded up.

In Wykoff terms a low volume weak bounce (like 2001 and 2008) will be named the 'Last point of Supply', and if a price slump follows, price will break the ice near the 2200 level to lower lows. Of course if we get price strength shown by high volume and wide spread the 'sign of weakness' can be discounted as abnormal.

We are waiting and watching.

Watch this live, with Wyckoff, Gann and Cycles inside readtheticker.com, sign up to RTT Plus.

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