US Dollar Cycle Review

If investors can correctly forecast the US Dollar then their portfolio will be standing on better ground.


Jesse Livermore said investors must familiarise themselves with all matters of the market. The sine wave cycle below shows regular tops and bottoms and if the investor ignores this repeating phenomena it could be at their peril. If you decide to do so, you best have a good technical or fundamental reason.

The sine wave cycle below was found with readtheticker.com 'Cycle Finder Spectrum' use of 'Bartels' logic. Yes it is mathematics, but within the site RTT Plus service we also examine the dollar fundamentals  (like: inflation, money supply, banking risk, interest rates, market risk) and subject to another market like COVID19 smash the fundamentals suggest a slump in the US dollar in the immediate short term future.

The question remains how deep the dollar slump is likely to be. Cycle are good for forecasting periods of peaks and troughs, the size of the extension or the depth of a slump is a little more tricky, and if the DXY holds above $90 then a bullish pattern remains as a higher low remains, below will make life very interesting. 

A lower US dollar does act as stimulus to risk on assets, and it is no surprise the current Trump White House welcomes higher asset prices prior to November 2020 elections. Yes! You can accept the white glove of the White House inked up the printing presses to make it so, and we can assume they have gallons of ink. 


Chart Review ..
- Sine Wave cycle
- Sine Wave with DPO (Detrending Price Osc)
- Momentum Osc synced with cycles.

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Dow 2020 Crash Watch - Update

Like 1929 the markets have bounced. This time it is on the back of the FED $6.5T money printing.


Previous Post: Dow 2020 Crash Watch 

But can the FED blow $6T every time the market rolls down to test support.

Yes, maybe before the US 2020 elections the FED will do 'what it takes'. But post elections not so much, the year 2021 is a long way from the next election (presidential or congress) and defense of the markets may not be so supportive at $6T or $10T per market smash. The FED may hesitate, and that will be window for stocks to break lower.

The 36 month simple moving average (SMA) is a good indicator of the Dow Jones trend (36 months is three years). It has been a good indicator of Dow break outs over the last 100 years.

Now, if you take the difference between the Dow monthly close and the 36 month simple moving average and convert it into a percentage change this is known as the 'Detrending Price Oscillator' or DPO. The DPO highlights how well a moving average performs, it also highlights momentum towards or away from the moving average.

Lets review the SMA(36) and DPO(36) during similar market changes: 1929, 1974, 1987, 2000, 2007. 



Chart 1929.

Chart 1974

Chart 1987

Chart Now

The concern is that this is on the table for 2021

Stay frosty, the next 6 months will forge trends for the next few years.





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RTT browsing latest..

Please review a collection of WWW browsing results.
The information here is delayed by a few months, members get the most recent content.



Date Found: Saturday, 14 March 2020, 05:51:16 PM

Comment: Crash in perspective - its Bad, and not over!

Date Found: Saturday, 14 March 2020, 07:49:29 PM

Comment: The Blood Bath Has Begun youtu.be/bmC8k1qmM0s

Date Found: Sunday, 15 March 2020, 12:11:17 AM

Comment: Central Bank money printing will multiply by 3 times! (like 1937)

Date Found: Tuesday, 17 March 2020, 05:48:19 PM

Comment: High volatility is at the beginning or at the end, which is it?

Date Found: Tuesday, 17 March 2020, 07:07:43 PM

Comment: Charles Nenner - FSN - February 20, 2020 youtu.be/yO_CFtqawgU

Date Found: Thursday, 19 March 2020, 07:19:48 PM

Comment: The Macro Show Highlights: 'We Are In A Stock Market Crash' youtu.be/l7K2nlR67hY

Date Found: Friday, 20 March 2020, 04:44:37 PM

Comment: The Coronavirus and the World Economy With Raoul Pal #686 - The fix is crypto currency youtu.be/PEUoqUrpl-o

Date Found: Saturday, 21 March 2020, 04:20:15 AM

Comment: Jordan Roy-Byrne: Expect a Rip-Roaring Bull Market in Gold & Silver youtu.be/sIpSkTrCwjk

Date Found: Saturday, 21 March 2020, 06:01:06 PM

Comment: THE RESET JUST HAPPENED | Gregory Mannarino youtu.be/egbecGlfwCs

Date Found: Saturday, 21 March 2020, 11:44:31 PM

Comment: oooh sh*t!

Date Found: Sunday, 22 March 2020, 03:11:18 AM

Comment: Bill Murphy: Silver Demand Surges While Price Plummets youtu.be/YKHp-ColHqI

Date Found: Monday, 23 March 2020, 11:30:16 PM

Comment: All-Stars #98 Luke Gromen: Stocks will keep selling off unless the Fed buys all youtu.be/3mm8zHkUphE

Date Found: Saturday, 28 March 2020, 06:31:01 PM

Comment: We're going to get to a place worse than the economic crisis: Guggenheim... youtu.be/ohEl7ZhP__U

Date Found: Sunday, 29 March 2020, 04:00:59 PM

Comment: food%201

Date Found: Sunday, 29 March 2020, 04:33:56 PM

Comment: SP500 future!

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Golds quick price move increases the odds of a correction

Every market corrects, maybe profit taking, maybe of allowing those who missed out, to get in!



The current open interest on the gold contract looks to high after a very fast price move, it looks like 2008 may be repeating. A quick flushing out of the weak hands open interest may take place before a real advance in price takes place. The correction may be on the back of a wider sell off of risk assets (either before of after US elections) as all assets suffer contagion selling (just like 2008).

This blog view is a gold price correction of 10% to 20% range is a buying opportunity. Of course we may see  a very minor price correction but a long time correction, a price or time is correction is expected, we shall watch and wait.


The explosion of open interest (chart below) along with gold price suggests 'all have loaded up', the big boys wont like this as they will not want to share gold gains with the public, one therefore can expect some sort of wash out of the weak public hands holding of gold future contracts before a real advance takes place. 

Also price has meet channel resistance.

Also price is near upper resistance of the previous high.

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