SP500 Kitchin cycle says trouble brewing

Since March 2009 the SP500 is up 250%, so another 10% gain is just chump change, and chasing it may be a step too far!


The Kitchin cycle (purple loops) suggests trouble can be expected between May 2017 and June 2018, readtheticker.com suggests a minimum 20% correction is a sure thing during the next 18 months with the TRUMP'ster around. Why chase a 10% gain now? Best waiting for the expected market correction before increasing your exposure to real market risk. Makes sense no!

NOTE: The price chart below with our RTTHurstDPO indicator shows price is conforming to the 900 bar Kitchin cycle.

Ok maybe you don't get cycles or other chart reading tools, and you need a fundamental reason for such a market correction. Easy, how about rising inflation on the USA $66T of debt. A 1% inflation increase is $660BN loss in purchasing power. Higher interest rates normally follow higher inflation. The US inflation chart below is the chart to watch, nothing else matters. The FED will finally have its inflation problem.

source: tradingeconomics.com

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SP500 machine off day

Today the market has fallen 27 pts (so far) on the SP500, it looks like a machine off day!


Here are some charts from our private RTT Plus blog over the past two months.

The Golden Ratio is very good in picking price judder bars when a market is in new ground and has no resistance.

Maybe the realisation TRUMP plans may take a little longer than expected, we may see a similar price action to Reagan first year. Or maybe its just the ECB talking of higher rates with all the banking issues they have, and how the many legs of the octopus may reach the US banks derivative books. (Note: Banks are selling off hard, just after a period of large insider selling by bank bosses)

Or course we all have seen topping patterns before, wide range up into new ground to bring in the uniformed, wide range down as the informed distribute to the uniformed.

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Stock Accumulations to Review

Finding stocks which have patterns of interest, is a sequence of filtering by math and eyeball chart scanning. We start with a large sample and end up with a small sample to act upon.


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Crude Bartels Cycle review

Crude oil has slumped on lack of world demand. If this slump is a continuation of the down trend and confirming cycle action then up swings are to be sold.


Let price fall further, watch for a weak bounce then review your trade options. Price falling from upper resistance is not a confirmation of a well supported demand story for higher prices, it is a story that the shorts have built up a position to take prices down.

Below is a chart showing off readtheticker.com Bartels cycle tools. Bartels is used to find the dominate cycle in a time series.

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March 2017, Silver smash down, our view

Believe it or not the big boys of the trading world (market makers, specialists, hedge funds, etc) prefer to accumulate on the down swing, cause if they tried it on the up swing, they would be buying against themselves, and if no down swing is present, create one and forcing the weak hands to sell !


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If you are a fan of the BBC, this is scene from 'Only Fools and Horses' at the poker table sums up the stock market game very well. Bluffing, trickery, cheating and the winner takes all if you are not caught! ha!!

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