readtheticker blogger: 2022

Friday 30 December 2022

Hot pick for 2023

Stock pickers are now making predictions for 2023, RTT's sector market call is related to hard money.

For two years GDXJ has failed to make new yearly highs. 2023 should be its year.

The good news is all the accumulation over a 6 year period (2014 - 2020) has not been divested, we know this as the volume over 2021/22 is very light and no new yearly lows have been made. This is basic Wyckoff accumulation logic and the chart below shows this well. The point is GDXJ investors are holding and waiting for new yearly highs.

GDXJ will require gold, silver and stocks to do well for gains in 2023. Or more simply the US dollar will have to be weaker through out 2023.

Retail investors should place GDXJ on their watch list, and wait for daily and weekly price action to show the market whales are moving price higher to new ground. In other worlds a Wyckoff sign of strength.

Watching and waiting ..

GDXJ

Yamana Gold is a large market cap stock within the GDXJ ETF.

Yamana Gold Inc is a gold and silver producer that is headquartered in Toronto, Canada. The firm has operations in Canada, Brazil, Chile, and Argentina. Its shares are also traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

Yamana Gold Inc. mineral resources as of 2021 stand at 176 million tonnes. Out of these, the Jeronimo resources constitute the largest chunk, as they stand at 95 million tonnes. The firm's mineral reserves of gold are 388 million tonnes, and its proven and probable gold reserves are 758 million tonnes.

Via Yahoo.com

AUY

Original Post: https://ift.tt/26fpt9T

Tuesday 20 December 2022

Liquidity Cycle to Bottom in 2023 - Update

The Pied piper bearish news scares many uninformed investors out of their positions, but is history about to repeat and another risk on period is soon to be born.

Previous Post: Liquidity Cycle to Bottom in 2023

CAUTION: Before we get too bullish, no one knows if another risk off low in due or how bad it may be.

But this does not mean informed investors can not accumulate positions in good assets on long term trends while they are on sale.

The chart below (DXY cycle vs Dow Cycle) shows 5 out of 5 wins for risk on, will it be 6 out of 6?

Watching and waiting ...

Cycle dow

Original Post: https://ift.tt/ZIqo318

Wednesday 14 December 2022

Love of property investment will die

When the cost of property finance doubles the asset prices will suffer.

A bond crisis will arrive to the world largest bond market post 2024. Higher mortgages rates in 2022 was just a teaser, double digit mortgage rates are coming in 2024/25. Central bankers will not be able to hold back the inflation push in bond yields.

POINT: 2023 will be the last year of grace before world wide mortgage rates go nuts.

Why?

Well the funding of the US Government by US Treasuries is a function of low inflation and low interest rates, and low inflation is dependent on low energy costs. If you frustrate the energy supply (and food) you will get shortages, shortages lead to demand and supply issues which result in higher prices for longer and inflation is the result.

POINT: This of course means if you tame energy supplies, then you will tame inflation.

Lots of moving parts, start your education here.

Long term cycles on the US 10 yr suggest decade lows rates are in.

Bonds

Original Post: https://ift.tt/YEKMmsI

Friday 9 December 2022

US Dollar lower in 2023

A US dollar rally is a condition of things not being well in the world, a falling US dollar is more calm arriving in the markets.

Larry McDonald talks about what can lower the US dollar in 2023 (first 15 min).

US dollar models suggest the trend is down in 2023. Light blue leads US dollar by 8 months (diff between EU and US core inflation).

USD

China is also helping the world with more juice into 2023.

China

Of course wild cards will tease the markets as always.

Original Post: https://ift.tt/TNKiIUM

Sunday 27 November 2022

Liquidity Cycle to Bottom in 2023

The liquidity cycle wave is about to bottom, major lows may be in as we go into Christmas 2022.

CrossBorder Capital see another liquidity low in 2023 (or already in 2022) with a juice up run into 2025.

Cycle liquidity

The Dow cycle mirrors the cycle above. Investors just have to judge if the smash low is in ! (ha)

Dow Cycle

Original Post: https://ift.tt/p2OAqW4

Tuesday 22 November 2022

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Comment: Weekly Update for Gold Investors: Sep 30, 2022

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Monday 21 November 2022

Silver will be supported by China Juice in 2023

China is about to re juice their economy, re open, and this will effect world wide market trends in 2023.

When the monetary juice flows from China this reduces stress on the world, it creates demand, it lowers the US dollar and supports the Euro, world wide manufacturing improves.

China knows the US yield curve is forecasting recession like conditions late 2023. US recessions creates a negative world wide demand effects, and that is the last thing China manufacturing wants coming out of a COVID slump period. Therefore one can expect solid Chinese support for recovery in 2023.

Chart 1 - From Raoul Pal weekly free GMI report. China credit impulse leads world manufacturing (PMI).

China juice

Chart 2 - Silver large draw downs of silver COMEX stocks must eventually put higher pressure on price. Silver is a in demand commodity for green energy technology like solar.

silver COMEX

Chart 3 - Silver long term cycles (black) are bullish, while short term cycles are ready to turn higher (green).

Silver 3

Original Post: https://ift.tt/DWscInr

Sunday 30 October 2022

These charts are going to move

Interest rates must be cut down, because the debts are so high the financial ruin from high interest expense is very near.

US interest expense is near $750 BN, most of the US debt is based on bonds under 5 yrs, that is the front end of the yield curve, and the last thing the US wants is a collapse in tax revenue at the hands of a recession (say due in 2023).

Because when the tax revenue falls, and interest expense remains high (subject to inflation levels, the energy inflation will be the issue) the US ratio of tax revenue to interest expense becomes tighter and dangerously close to insolvency. What does this mean? Well think Argentinian economic woes.

Yes the US economy is headed into a Argentinian economic issues with US characteristics. Some sort of capping of interest rates is coming (yield curve control lite) in 2023 and this will lower the US dollar and expand the central bank balance sheets.

Chart 1 - The US 30 yr interest rate must come down.

30 yr Bonds