A bond crisis will arrive to the world largest bond market post 2024. Higher mortgages rates in 2022 was just a teaser, double digit mortgage rates are coming in 2024/25. Central bankers will not be able to hold back the inflation push in bond yields.
POINT: 2023 will be the last year of grace before world wide mortgage rates go nuts.
Why?
Well the funding of the US Government by US Treasuries is a function of low inflation and low interest rates, and low inflation is dependent on low energy costs. If you frustrate the energy supply (and food) you will get shortages, shortages lead to demand and supply issues which result in higher prices for longer and inflation is the result.
POINT: This of course means if you tame energy supplies, then you will tame inflation.
Lots of moving parts, start your education here.
Long term cycles on the US 10 yr suggest decade lows rates are in.
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