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Date Found: Tuesday, 01 October 2019, 02:18:22 AM

Comment: Wall of worry, or cliff of despair!

Date Found: Tuesday, 01 October 2019, 06:54:30 AM

Comment: Interesting.. Hitler good for the German DAX when he was winning! They believed .. until they didn't!  Just a confidence game, as all markets are!

Date Found: Wednesday, 02 October 2019, 10:38:04 PM

Comment: Oops .. the FED has not cut rates fast enough !

Date Found: Thursday, 03 October 2019, 03:33:04 AM

Comment: @Schuldensuehner6hUS recession risk has risen. When measured by latest econ data, probability of recession within 12mths is at >40%, yield curve signals probability of 60%, only stocks and corporate bonds do not signal increased risk. (Chart via JPM)

Date Found: Thursday, 03 October 2019, 06:06:48 PM

Comment: @TaviCosta7mThe recession clock is ticking faster. 5-yr vs. 3-m spread now inverted for almost 8 months! Only happened 4 other times: At the peak of the housing bubble. In the midst of the tech

Date Found: Saturday, 05 October 2019, 02:31:30 AM

Comment: @crescatkevin Credit bubbles build up when private sector debt growth rapidly outpaces GDP growth in a economic expansion. World’s biggest financial crises have followed from this unsustainable pattern. China, Canada, Australia pose serious risks today!

Date Found: Saturday, 05 October 2019, 05:34:32 PM

Comment: CEO confidence effects spending in economy, looks like US economy is about to freeze up before 2020 election

Date Found: Sunday, 06 October 2019, 05:16:52 PM

Comment: Interesting, Consumer confidence dent, or political play!

Date Found: Friday, 11 October 2019, 04:46:44 AM

Comment: A Recession Is Coming (Eventually)

Date Found: Friday, 11 October 2019, 05:15:54 AM

Comment: AAII falls down! Ooops! The FED did this!

Date Found: Friday, 11 October 2019, 10:46:54 PM

Comment: Germany near recession!

Date Found: Monday, 14 October 2019, 04:31:43 AM

Comment: Similar breakdowns from major support lines also occurred right in 2000

Date Found: Monday, 14 October 2019, 09:00:40 PM

Comment: ZH:US consumers spend less on critical household purchases when their economic situation deteriorates

Date Found: Tuesday, 15 October 2019, 02:05:04 AM

Comment: QE forever!

Date Found: Thursday, 17 October 2019, 07:45:48 PM

Comment: Recession when, not if! Soft or hard landing while there is massive corporate and  consumer debt around! Place your bets!

Original Post: https://ift.tt/2SRGKGx

Dow theory warning from the Utilities Index

Charles Dow died in 1902, and the investors should thank him for his ever lasting Dow Theory Analysis.


Carrying on this blog theme looking at the Utility stocks. Previous post.
Dow Jones Utility index could trade like the FANGs
Formula for when the Great Stock Market Rally ends



You can learn about Dow Theory here

This post is concerned with the 4th tenet.

Stock market averages must confirm each other

In Dow's time, the US was a growing industrial power. The US had population centers but factories were scattered throughout the country. Factories had to ship their goods to market, usually by rail. Dow's first stock averages were an index of industrial (manufacturing) companies and rail companies. To Dow, a bull market in industrial's could not occur unless the railway average rallied as well, usually first. According to this logic, if manufacturers' profits are rising, it follows that they are producing more. If they produce more, then they have to ship more goods to consumers. Hence, if an investor is looking for signs of health in manufacturers, he or she should look at the performance of the companies that ship their output to market, the railroads. The two averages should be moving in the same direction. When the performance of the averages diverge, it is a warning that change is in the air.

The above is correct in saying the transports should confirm the industrial index, also the utility index ideally should not out perform the transports, this is because the utility index is considered a safe harbor in times of great risk.

If the utilities out perform transports and/or industrial's then the smart money favor safety which indicates they favor water or electric dividend paying companies over trucking, rail road, consumer, technology or financial companies.

This is major sector rotation which signals great risk in the wider market is upon us or very nearly upon us. 

The chart below considered the performance of the Dow Utilities Index vs Dow Transports Index next to previous Dow Industrial major market tops. Conclusion is in black text.

This Charles Dow quote suits the modern day passive investing theme (ie ETFs gone crazy, for more  go here to Mike Green)

Original Post: https://ift.tt/38g33fo

Dow Jones Utility index could trade like the FANGs

The world is changing because the US FED is considering capping the US 10 yr interest rate under the US inflation rate, or negative real interest rates forever. Further massive destruction of the US dollar purchasing power.


Previous Post: Formula for when the great stock market rally ends

In the previous post this blog said:

When valuations for the boring water company or the boring electric company is trading like your Facebook, Apple, Amazon or Netflix or Google (ie FANG) you know something is wrong.

This is when a seriously over valued market is screaming at you.

Of course the reader must understand in a world where money printing goes super nuts (Zimbabwe style) the stock market may go hyper inflationary and picking a time frame for a top is never a good idea, but we are not there yet. There is no Ben Bernanke helicopter money to the masses yet (ie MMT).

We may be there, 'helicopter money lite'. If the intention is to cap interest rates under inflation, this is a form of massive easy money (or easy debt). 

Of course the effect of negative real interest rates is the US 10 yr is now broken because it does not protect you from inflation, this is interest rates suppression, of fake. The US FED has enacted this policy before, during WW2, are we in WW3? No. Yet the debt levels as a percentage of GDP suggest we are. Crazy.

This means investors will hunt for a UST 10 yr alternative, hence utility stocks with their high dividends will attract a lot more investor interest. Yes a water company may go to a P/E of 40. 

This means demand for quality utility stocks around the world will be strong, and if the US dollar falls, utility stock in other parts of the world will be attractive. 

A good place to hunt for Wyckoff, cycles and Gann angles.



Long term channels

Close up of the above chart.

Of course nothing moves in a straight line, corrections of 10% to 20% along the way are likely.





Original Post: https://ift.tt/2tlnW9K

Top Patterns for Retail Investors

Retail investors are last in line for market leading research, no matter, the retail investor can profit from these secret sauce patterns.
.

Well not so secret now, the main point is you do not have to climb Mount Everest to be called a mountain climber, there are many other hills to climb to make your mark. Just like stocks.

You do not have to battle with the high frequency traders to win in the markets, there are long and slow methods to do just as well.  

More from RTT Tv

Some charts from the video


Pattern 1

Pattern 2

The video shows off some stocks of future trades.





Original Post: https://ift.tt/36mKIeY

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Date Found: Monday, 16 September 2019, 05:22:48 PM

Comment: This chart says SP500 should go back to 2016 levels (overshoot will occur of course)

Date Found: Tuesday, 17 September 2019, 01:53:30 AM

Comment: This would be HUGE...got gold!

Date Found: Wednesday, 18 September 2019, 01:40:53 AM

Comment: QE good for Gold (subject to US Govt 33000 naked short sale in 2013)

Date Found: Friday, 20 September 2019, 03:27:25 AM

Comment: Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta8hThis is huge. 30-year yield vs. core CPI at its lowest level since 1980s! 10-year real yield? Same. Plunging as they did in mid

Date Found: Saturday, 21 September 2019, 02:54:49 AM

Comment: Inventories go up because (1) You cant sell the stuff, forecast demand incorrectly or (2) you are anticipating strong future demand, hence the build up: Most likely (1) in this case! Concur!

Date Found: Saturday, 21 September 2019, 11:37:06 PM

Comment: MOST IMPORTANT chart in the world, US is lagging interest rate cuts vs rest of world major central banks. Is the FED forcing a recession (anti TRUMP ??). FED must cut 50bps NOW to normalize.

Date Found: Tuesday, 24 September 2019, 07:00:06 AM

Comment: Wait what? You can bet on a NO DEAL BREXIT BMW wants to sell cars to UK. UK get ready to BOOM! Real buying power coming your way! Pound to get stronger!

Date Found: Wednesday, 25 September 2019, 02:31:12 AM

Comment: CEO worried about their OPTION pay outs! Hmmm!

Date Found: Thursday, 26 September 2019, 06:08:45 PM

Comment: ssssh Buyback Ponzi still working...low finance costs, risinh SP500 ..Winning for now!

Date Found: Thursday, 26 September 2019, 06:15:15 PM

Comment: Only a recession breaks the corporate debt boom!

Date Found: Thursday, 26 September 2019, 10:52:47 PM

Comment: Easy money ON, Easy Money Off, Do they do this on purpose?

Date Found: Saturday, 28 September 2019, 02:55:39 AM

Comment: Forecast FED balance sheet to $12T, on next crisis (Dan Amerman)

Date Found: Saturday, 28 September 2019, 07:54:10 AM

Comment: CBO Forecast  - UST creation is huge US dollar supply .. over supply means dollar down (subject to US interest rates vs Rest of world interest rates)

Date Found: Monday, 30 September 2019, 05:59:35 PM

Comment: Tell me no lies! Looks like another recession is near ... doom drums beat! Maybe ... The Great Pension Crisis of 20XX ??

Date Found: Tuesday, 01 October 2019, 01:15:28 AM

Comment: South Korea (Bell Weather for Global Demand) suffers deflation FOR THE FIRST TIME ...WOW

Original Post: https://ift.tt/37qxvms

SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review

The biggest known news date in the next 18 months is the US Election. The biggest unknown news date is when the US believes it is in a economic recession.


The Kitchin Cycle is still working.


We must conclude the major 900 period low is now in, and we are now in a up swing, which may top out ate 2020 or late 2021. Any future top out may only generate a 10% to 20% correction, of course this can be deemed very mild. This is expected, but the expected does always play out. 


Rolling the dice to get '7' does not always work. Post US elections seasonal's aligned with a poor start of the decade seasonal trends, add on high global recession risk, add on a stock market slump tends to occur in the years ending 9,1,2,3,4 (like 1973, 1982, 1991, 2001, 2009 are all recession years), markets may get very interesting.

We will continue to watch the Kitchin cycle with interest. 

The pullbacks in the SP500 have really tested below 20% over the 10+ year period. This very strange for such a long period of time, is it the algo's or the FED's trading team. Who knows! However the point is if price ever gets below 20% on a weekly close then you can bet the following sell off will be spectacular. 

Original Post: https://ift.tt/3ajGp7g

Gold Gann Angle Update

The new year of 2020 has gold is poised to break out higher. Why is gold going higher? Maybe the FED's economists can explain .... or not.


Maybe these could be on the list:

- FED repo hundreds of billions a day.
- ECB made up tools to keep the European banks solvent.
- A sugar high stock market with Apple Inc and Microsoft looking like Bitcoin 2017.
- The US bond market is NOT confirming a strong stock market.
- Corporate profits have flat lined for 3 years while stocks soared each year.
- Knowing an US election year needs stimulus, and a lower US dollar is a first choice.
- China deal, will have a currency element to make it easier to do business. Lower US dollar.



Gold Gann Angle 

Gold Channel showing long term trend

Original Post: https://ift.tt/35C8bsd

Currency and Metals could be the big movers early in 2020

Trump is doing his trade thing with China, and part of the 2020 agreement will be a resolution of the US dollar.
A weaker US dollar is on the table, as it helps both Trump and Xi. The COT reports gives us a huge hint this is about to happen early in 2020.

More from RTT Tv

Chart from the video

Lyn Alden makes a great point in this thread about the Dec 2019 repo news.

For years, large U.S. banks were drawing down cash levels (15% to 7% of assets in last 5yr) to buy treasuries (from 15% to 21% of assets). But now they are basically at regulatory limits; can't draw down cash to buy more treasuries. So, the Fed became the new buyer of them.

and ..

A lot of people think the Fed is trying to support the equity market, or covering for a bank/fund failure somewhere. Those explanations are possible, but not required. The Fed simply taking over as the primary financier of U.S. deficits is a mathematically sufficient reason.

Luke Gromen sums up the argument for a lower US dollar.

It is election year in the USA and to stimulate into Nov 2020 he needs a economic boost. Trump can not get tax cuts, or infrastructure spending out of congress, he is left with the FED balance sheet and a lower US dollar. They are about to step up big time.





Original Post: https://ift.tt/39vYQoO