Chart 1 - Gov debt holding up business activity.
Chart 2 - Gov doing all the hiring!
Chart 3 - ISM Services PMI holding up business, manufacturing recession continues (or going to Mexico)
Original Post: https://ift.tt/uCDdWmt
Monday, 29 January 2024
2024 soft landing working it
Can it last? Can the US Gov keep the plates spinning until US 2024 elections.
Chart 1 - Gov debt holding up business activity.
Chart 2 - Gov doing all the hiring!
Chart 3 - ISM Services PMI holding up business, manufacturing recession continues (or going to Mexico)
Original Post: https://ift.tt/uCDdWmt
Chart 1 - Gov debt holding up business activity.
Chart 2 - Gov doing all the hiring!
Chart 3 - ISM Services PMI holding up business, manufacturing recession continues (or going to Mexico)
Original Post: https://ift.tt/uCDdWmt
Tuesday, 23 January 2024
Market moving macro in 2024
It is time for the FED to hire Jordan Belfort (Wolf of WallStreet fame) to sell US government debt.
After all, Jordan Belfort is a man who can sell tea to China.
Chart 1 - The red line generates the income to pay interest on the blue line. If the rate of change of debt growth and the cost of debt are an ever increasing burden on the cash flow generated by growth, something is going to structurally break. Gold near $2,000 USD is a bargain (same price as 2011)!
Chart 2 - Here is a smarter chart of Chart 1 above. When the fat red line sinks and falls below zero, this is a period of time when the rate of change in debt growth is much faster than GDP (not adjusted for inflation). Gold says this matters. The gold price moves higher in such an environment.
Chart 3 - China CPI is in deflation (CPI below zero). The FED broke China! President Xi recently visited the USA and met with some heavy hitters to help re-inflate China. It is mostly likely to coordinate Chinese stimulus with US election year stimulus. China cannot afford the negative effects of prolonged deflation periods.
ZH summary says it all.
Original Post: https://ift.tt/JBpaRK1
After all, Jordan Belfort is a man who can sell tea to China.Chart 1 - The red line generates the income to pay interest on the blue line. If the rate of change of debt growth and the cost of debt are an ever increasing burden on the cash flow generated by growth, something is going to structurally break. Gold near $2,000 USD is a bargain (same price as 2011)!
Chart 2 - Here is a smarter chart of Chart 1 above. When the fat red line sinks and falls below zero, this is a period of time when the rate of change in debt growth is much faster than GDP (not adjusted for inflation). Gold says this matters. The gold price moves higher in such an environment.
Chart 3 - China CPI is in deflation (CPI below zero). The FED broke China! President Xi recently visited the USA and met with some heavy hitters to help re-inflate China. It is mostly likely to coordinate Chinese stimulus with US election year stimulus. China cannot afford the negative effects of prolonged deflation periods.
ZH summary says it all.
Which means China now has two options: pretend that the failed policies it has been doing (or pretending to do) so far has been successful, which it likely will until there is just too much blood on the streets, or it will finally capitulate and unleash the biggest fiscal stimulus ever seen in China: we are talking multiple trillions here, and in dollars not yuan, consequences be damned, because we are nearing the point of peak panic where Beijing will do anything at all to buy social order and stability for just a few more months. And once all those tens of trillions in Chinese deposits start fleeing, that's when the real meltup in non-fiat assets - read gold, silver, crypto, fine art, wines, etc - will truly start.
Original Post: https://ift.tt/JBpaRK1
Monday, 25 December 2023
Stock market cycle look into 2024
The well promoted US recession of 2023 did not happen, but will it happen in 2024.
Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital says the liquidity is supportive of slow growth but no recession in 2024 or 2025.
Technical charts support this view, lets review:
Chart 1 - Shows three sine wave cycle should repeat for a fourth peak in 2025 Q1.
Chart 2 - Shows the Dow Jones working well through Gann Angles, Dow +45,000
Chart 3 - Crazy how the Wall 900 period cycle fits highs and lows.
Chart 4 - Richard Wyckoff Cause and Effect still working until it does it. Will an 'Effect Fail' happen in 2024, the trend says unlikely. But who knows which events will shape the world in the next year.
Original Post: https://ift.tt/eYHpJkN
Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital says the liquidity is supportive of slow growth but no recession in 2024 or 2025.
Technical charts support this view, lets review:
Chart 1 - Shows three sine wave cycle should repeat for a fourth peak in 2025 Q1.
Chart 2 - Shows the Dow Jones working well through Gann Angles, Dow +45,000
Chart 3 - Crazy how the Wall 900 period cycle fits highs and lows.
Chart 4 - Richard Wyckoff Cause and Effect still working until it does it. Will an 'Effect Fail' happen in 2024, the trend says unlikely. But who knows which events will shape the world in the next year.
Original Post: https://ift.tt/eYHpJkN
Tuesday, 28 November 2023
Ethereum runs hot on new market liquidity
The US elections attract an easier market; this time there is another incentive to let the juice run.
The US presidential cycle runs for 4 years; the years before and after the election are the most market-friendly to the bulls, as politicians promise the kitchen sink. Typically, the incumbent will do all they can to ensure the economy is doing well before the election; they do this by making the monetary condition easier. One way to do this is to lower the US dollar.
Chart 1: US dollar (DXY)
The blue lines are US election dates (November). Both 2016 and 2020 saw a move to get the US dollar down in the 12 months prior to the election.
During the next 13 months the US Government has to fund the US deficit to the tune of $8 trillion dollars of existing and new debt. This means they need to find $8T USD out in the market place to buy this debt. There are many tricks the FED and TREASURY can do to do this, and one trick to lower the price of the US dollar debt to foreign investor by lowering the currency it is sold in (say DXY near $90), otherwise known as currency debasement.
Bert Dohmen of the Wellington posted this (2023-11-27):
Debasement of the currency is a likely event to massive indebted sovereign states. Investors can protect themselves from this by investing in anti US dollar investment vehicles like: Gold, Silver, Oil, Crypto.
Chart 2 - Ethereum cycle is ready to run on currency debasement.
Chart 3 - Ethereum Channel support and resistance forecast or equal move forecast.
Original Post: https://ift.tt/4hN7iAt
The US presidential cycle runs for 4 years; the years before and after the election are the most market-friendly to the bulls, as politicians promise the kitchen sink. Typically, the incumbent will do all they can to ensure the economy is doing well before the election; they do this by making the monetary condition easier. One way to do this is to lower the US dollar.
Chart 1: US dollar (DXY)
The blue lines are US election dates (November). Both 2016 and 2020 saw a move to get the US dollar down in the 12 months prior to the election.
During the next 13 months the US Government has to fund the US deficit to the tune of $8 trillion dollars of existing and new debt. This means they need to find $8T USD out in the market place to buy this debt. There are many tricks the FED and TREASURY can do to do this, and one trick to lower the price of the US dollar debt to foreign investor by lowering the currency it is sold in (say DXY near $90), otherwise known as currency debasement.
Bert Dohmen of the Wellington posted this (2023-11-27):
We just read that the federal government is running its largest deficit as a percentage of GDP outside of WWII period. Another great achievement!
And next year we are likely to see the greatest money creation out of thin air in the entire history of the US. The Fed has to create ways to finance the record deficits by the creation of new money.
That of course has inflationary implications. And that will plunge the bond market again, making the bond disaster even worse. Remember, last time we wrote the global bond market is $128 TRILLION. That is 128 billion times a billion dollars.
We conservatively estimate that they have unrealized paper losses of at least 60%. Therefore, the loss on the global bond market would be a staggering $77 TRILLION!!!
Debasement of the currency is a likely event to massive indebted sovereign states. Investors can protect themselves from this by investing in anti US dollar investment vehicles like: Gold, Silver, Oil, Crypto.
Chart 2 - Ethereum cycle is ready to run on currency debasement.
Chart 3 - Ethereum Channel support and resistance forecast or equal move forecast.
Original Post: https://ift.tt/4hN7iAt
Tuesday, 31 October 2023
Bitcoin working through channels
There is no need for complicated indicators when simple price channels will do.
The trick is to have software to draw the parallel price channels with great accuracy.
We can see here (Chart 1) how two A-B-C channels are forecasting current price support and resistance levels.
Chart 1 - Bitcoin
Original Post: https://ift.tt/Yzabx6s
The trick is to have software to draw the parallel price channels with great accuracy.
We can see here (Chart 1) how two A-B-C channels are forecasting current price support and resistance levels.
Chart 1 - Bitcoin
Original Post: https://ift.tt/Yzabx6s
Friday, 13 October 2023
The Dow is going Higher
The market professionals do not want the public positioned in the market better than they are.
Market professionals use the news to scare the public out of their hard earned winning positions.
Let's face it:
- All the FED tightening has been offset with Dept Treasury and Rev Repo antics.
- Higher US 10 yr rates have caused trillions of book losses on bond investments around the world.
- The FED has broken the most important market in the world, the US Treasury market (Bofa Bond Move index > 140, DXY > 107)
- Inflation is sticky due to food and energy elements, also from monetary stimulus from billions in new interest income.
Unless WW3 or US 10 yr explodes 3% higher (see KINK in chart 1 below), the worst news is over, and now the FED will try and repair the damage done to their own bond market. After all, the US bond market is GOD. US Recession fears are over played while there are ongoing fiscal spending deficits into a US election year.
Chart 1 - Dow Jones Cycle. Unless there is a kink the Dow should travel sideways to higher.
Chart 2 - The FED can not contain inflation and must bend a knee to it own bond market, on the back of rising gold and silver prices gold stocks still have room to move higher during the current up cycle.
Original Post: https://ift.tt/jhI9Vr3
Market professionals use the news to scare the public out of their hard earned winning positions.
Let's face it:
- All the FED tightening has been offset with Dept Treasury and Rev Repo antics.
- Higher US 10 yr rates have caused trillions of book losses on bond investments around the world.
- The FED has broken the most important market in the world, the US Treasury market (Bofa Bond Move index > 140, DXY > 107)
- Inflation is sticky due to food and energy elements, also from monetary stimulus from billions in new interest income.
Unless WW3 or US 10 yr explodes 3% higher (see KINK in chart 1 below), the worst news is over, and now the FED will try and repair the damage done to their own bond market. After all, the US bond market is GOD. US Recession fears are over played while there are ongoing fiscal spending deficits into a US election year.
Chart 1 - Dow Jones Cycle. Unless there is a kink the Dow should travel sideways to higher.
Chart 2 - The FED can not contain inflation and must bend a knee to it own bond market, on the back of rising gold and silver prices gold stocks still have room to move higher during the current up cycle.
Original Post: https://ift.tt/jhI9Vr3
Saturday, 30 September 2023
Uranium Commodity Review
Uranium is taking off, or just doing another major cycle.
Good fundamentals described here:
Chart 1 - Second cycle up swing in play, say half way.
Chart 2 - Support and Resistance described by parallel channels.
Original Post: https://ift.tt/QIafAz5
Good fundamentals described here:
Chart 1 - Second cycle up swing in play, say half way.
Chart 2 - Support and Resistance described by parallel channels.
Original Post: https://ift.tt/QIafAz5
Tuesday, 19 September 2023
US GDP recovery
US GDP is bouncing back, so says the NY FED GDPNow forecast.
Currently the US has theses stats [2023 Q2]:
- US debt to GDP is 120%
- US deficit to GDP is +8%
- US federal interest expense up 100%
A recession is negative GDP.
The GFC 2008/09 recession was -3% of GDP. Today the deficit is 8% of GDP, currently there is 5% more spending then the GFC crisis. So maybe this is why the GDPNow forecast is forecasting a 3.9% forecast 2023 Q3, on the back of government spending.
Chart 1 - NY Fed GDP now forecast for 2023 Q3
Chart 2 - If these good forecasts for US GDP continue then we will see a recovery in the US ISM PMI Manufacturing index.
Chart 3 - Silver is likely to recover on the back of recovering US GDP and US ISM PMI.
Original Post: https://ift.tt/XoUy38t
Currently the US has theses stats [2023 Q2]:
- US debt to GDP is 120%
- US deficit to GDP is +8%
- US federal interest expense up 100%
A recession is negative GDP.
The GFC 2008/09 recession was -3% of GDP. Today the deficit is 8% of GDP, currently there is 5% more spending then the GFC crisis. So maybe this is why the GDPNow forecast is forecasting a 3.9% forecast 2023 Q3, on the back of government spending.
Chart 1 - NY Fed GDP now forecast for 2023 Q3
Chart 2 - If these good forecasts for US GDP continue then we will see a recovery in the US ISM PMI Manufacturing index.
Chart 3 - Silver is likely to recover on the back of recovering US GDP and US ISM PMI.
Original Post: https://ift.tt/XoUy38t
Saturday, 2 September 2023
Japanese Yen Cycle Review
A regular cycle low has formed on the very important carry trade yen.
Chart 1 - Regular cycle YEN low. As we know the Japanese investors are large investors in US debt, so lets review the US 10 yr cycle.
Chart 2 - In line with a cycle high in the US 10 year interest rate.
Chart 3 - A pullback in the US 10 year, is likely, so says the copper gold ratio, which will see a rebound in the YEN off the cycle lows.
Chart 4 - Channel support lines are strong for the yen.
Chart 5 - Sync with a shortage in US dollar funding. Going into US election year, more dollars will be printed you can assume, suggesting US dollar weakness and relief for the yen.
Original Post: https://ift.tt/f3V8EMH
Chart 1 - Regular cycle YEN low. As we know the Japanese investors are large investors in US debt, so lets review the US 10 yr cycle.
Chart 2 - In line with a cycle high in the US 10 year interest rate.
Chart 3 - A pullback in the US 10 year, is likely, so says the copper gold ratio, which will see a rebound in the YEN off the cycle lows.
Chart 4 - Channel support lines are strong for the yen.
Chart 5 - Sync with a shortage in US dollar funding. Going into US election year, more dollars will be printed you can assume, suggesting US dollar weakness and relief for the yen.
Original Post: https://ift.tt/f3V8EMH
Tuesday, 22 August 2023
Global M2 effect on Gold
Money supply growth leads to debt and paper market growth, and eventually the hard stuff catches up in value.
Global money growth (M2) converted to US dollar terms, represents the world money supply that can be converted into US dollars and be used for trade and GDP growth. It is the grease that allows the market wheels to turn. Yes, there is a lag between the creation of M2 and its effect on the markets, but the charts below show that new global M2 tends to have an effect on gold and silver.
When deflation pressures are strong more M2 is created, when inflation is hot M2 is reduced.
Chart 1 - Global M2 to June 2023
Chart 2 - Global M2 lows on Gold and Silver
Chart 3 - China has a deflation problem. China needs global M2 to grow. Makes you wonder why 101 year old Henry Kissinger and Yellen visited China recently in 2023 H1.
Original Post: https://ift.tt/Pdz5JaL
What is M2?
M2 is a measure of the money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, and other types of deposits that are readily convertible to cash, such as CDs.
Global money growth (M2) converted to US dollar terms, represents the world money supply that can be converted into US dollars and be used for trade and GDP growth. It is the grease that allows the market wheels to turn. Yes, there is a lag between the creation of M2 and its effect on the markets, but the charts below show that new global M2 tends to have an effect on gold and silver.
When deflation pressures are strong more M2 is created, when inflation is hot M2 is reduced.
Chart 1 - Global M2 to June 2023
Chart 2 - Global M2 lows on Gold and Silver
Chart 3 - China has a deflation problem. China needs global M2 to grow. Makes you wonder why 101 year old Henry Kissinger and Yellen visited China recently in 2023 H1.
Original Post: https://ift.tt/Pdz5JaL
Sunday, 13 August 2023
Crude Oil near $300 plus
If the crude oil price follows its performance of the last 100 years, then a print of $300 plus oil in US dollar terms is on the table in the next decade.
Of course, crude oil priced in US dollars means higher oil prices can be the result of bearish US dollar fundamentals more so than a bullish crude oil fundamentals.
Pulling commercial (light sweet) oil out of the ground can be classified into two groups: easy and hard. Easy is cheap oil production; hard is expensive oil production. The world has enjoyed cheap oil production for decades, and we are now moving into expensive oil production.
Buy the deep corrections are to be considered over the next decade.
Chart 1 - This tweet makes a point, plus it highlights the debate around future oil production.
Chart 2 - Oil history and price channel forecasts
Chart 3 - Oil long term cycle
Chart 4 - No wonder central banks are buying all that gold. Gold follows oil.
Original Post: https://ift.tt/xEDAjTR
Of course, crude oil priced in US dollars means higher oil prices can be the result of bearish US dollar fundamentals more so than a bullish crude oil fundamentals.
Pulling commercial (light sweet) oil out of the ground can be classified into two groups: easy and hard. Easy is cheap oil production; hard is expensive oil production. The world has enjoyed cheap oil production for decades, and we are now moving into expensive oil production.
Buy the deep corrections are to be considered over the next decade.
Chart 1 - This tweet makes a point, plus it highlights the debate around future oil production.
Chart 2 - Oil history and price channel forecasts
Chart 3 - Oil long term cycle
Chart 4 - No wonder central banks are buying all that gold. Gold follows oil.
Original Post: https://ift.tt/xEDAjTR
Saturday, 5 August 2023
Bitcoin Time Map
Bitcoin has regularity with calendar day time cycles.
Chart 1 - Simple and true.
Chart 2 - Credit to TradingView. Similar sync.
It is only a matter of time. Some fundamentals.
More BRRRR in 2025 or maybe earlier as the FED has to sell $1.85 trillion of new US Treasuries in 2023 H2. Debt and energy inflation may bring BRRRR forward. Of course if there are massive spending cuts by US congress to reduce debt and inflation that would change the game. Doubt it, US is going into Argentina style fiscal dominance.
Chart 3 - More BRRRRR to come.
Chart 4 - BTC is very cyclical.
Original Post: https://ift.tt/8bdz2t9
Chart 1 - Simple and true.
Chart 2 - Credit to TradingView. Similar sync.
It is only a matter of time. Some fundamentals.
More BRRRR in 2025 or maybe earlier as the FED has to sell $1.85 trillion of new US Treasuries in 2023 H2. Debt and energy inflation may bring BRRRR forward. Of course if there are massive spending cuts by US congress to reduce debt and inflation that would change the game. Doubt it, US is going into Argentina style fiscal dominance.
NOTE: Fiscal dominance is when monetary policy is used to manage a countries solvency rather than unemployment or inflation targets. Hence inflation and unemployment levels are sacrificed for the protection of the bond market.
Chart 3 - More BRRRRR to come.
Chart 4 - BTC is very cyclical.
Original Post: https://ift.tt/8bdz2t9
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