Tuesday 17 November 2020

Inflation Deflation Cycle Review

Structural change forces the current narrative to change. One such structural change would be a period elevated inflation.
image1

Inflation is a condition which effects many economic models, we only have to review the history books of the 1970's to see how asset classes reacted then and how they may react in the future. 

In periods of inflation there are short periods of deflation, as markets adjust from one theme to another it usually does so with some pain. The short answer: Nothing moves in a straight line and high volatility will shock the most experience investor.  

Long term cycles raise the question, if happened before is it likely to happen again. Price does not always fit the sine wave cycle neatly, but if the cycle is true price will correct to the cycle swing. 

Some cycle to be aware of ... be aware of the different time frames. 


Inflation

CPI





CRB Index


CRB cycle




Oil Cycle

OIL




US Dollar Cycle



USD




SP500 Cycle


USD




Original Post: https://ift.tt/3pACtGR

No comments:

Post a Comment