US GDP recovery

US GDP is bouncing back, so says the NY FED GDPNow forecast.


Currently the US has theses stats [2023 Q2]:
- US debt to GDP is 120%
- US deficit to GDP is +8% 
- US federal interest expense up 100%

A recession is negative GDP.

The GFC 2008/09 recession was -3% of GDP. Today the deficit is 8% of GDP, currently there is 5% more spending then the GFC crisis. So maybe this is why the GDPNow forecast is forecasting a 3.9% forecast 2023 Q3, on the back of government spending.  



Chart 1 - NY Fed GDP now forecast for 2023 Q3

Chart 2 - If these good forecasts for US GDP continue then we will see a recovery in the US ISM PMI Manufacturing index.

Chart 3 - Silver is likely to recover on the back of recovering US GDP and US ISM PMI.

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Japanese Yen Cycle Review

A regular cycle low has formed on the very important carry trade yen.



Chart 1 - Regular cycle YEN low. As we know the Japanese investors are large investors in US debt, so lets review the US 10 yr cycle. 

Chart 2 - In line with a cycle high in the US 10 year interest rate.

Chart 3 - A pullback in the US 10 year, is likely, so says the copper gold ratio, which will see a rebound in the YEN off the cycle lows. 

Chart 4 - Channel support lines are strong for the yen.

Chart 5 - Sync with a shortage in US dollar funding. Going into US election year, more dollars will be printed you can assume, suggesting US dollar weakness and relief for the yen.

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Global M2 effect on Gold

Money supply growth leads to debt and paper market growth, and eventually the hard stuff catches up in value.

What is M2? 

M2 is a measure of the money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, and other types of deposits that are readily convertible to cash, such as CDs.

Global money growth (M2) converted to US dollar terms, represents the world money supply that can be converted into US dollars and be used for trade and GDP growth. It is the grease that allows the market wheels to turn. Yes, there is a lag between the creation of M2 and its effect on the markets, but the charts below show that new global M2 tends to have an effect on gold and silver. 

When deflation pressures are strong more M2 is created, when inflation is hot M2 is reduced. 


Chart 1 - Global M2 to June 2023

Chart 2 - Global M2 lows on Gold and Silver

Chart 3 - China has a deflation problem. China needs global M2 to grow. Makes you wonder why 101 year old Henry Kissinger and Yellen visited China recently in 2023 H1.

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Crude Oil near $300 plus

If the crude oil price follows its performance of the last 100 years, then a print of $300 plus oil in US dollar terms is on the table in the next decade.


Of course, crude oil priced in US dollars means higher oil prices can be the result of bearish US dollar fundamentals more so than a bullish crude oil fundamentals.

Pulling commercial (light sweet) oil out of the ground can be classified into two groups: easy and hard. Easy is cheap oil production; hard is expensive oil production. The world has enjoyed cheap oil production for decades, and we are now moving into expensive oil production.

Buy the deep corrections are to be considered over the next decade.


Chart 1 - This tweet makes a point, plus it highlights the debate around future oil production. 

Chart 2 - Oil history and price channel forecasts

Chart 3 - Oil long term cycle

Chart 4 - No wonder central banks are buying all that gold. Gold follows oil.

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Bitcoin Time Map

Bitcoin has regularity with calendar day time cycles.


Chart 1 - Simple and true.

Chart 2 - Credit to TradingView. Similar sync.

It is only a matter of time. Some fundamentals.

More BRRRR in 2025 or maybe earlier as the FED has to sell $1.85 trillion of new US Treasuries in 2023 H2. Debt and energy inflation may bring BRRRR forward. Of course if there are massive spending cuts by US congress to reduce debt and inflation that would change the game. Doubt it, US is going into Argentina style fiscal dominance. 

NOTE: Fiscal dominance is when monetary policy is used to manage a countries solvency rather than unemployment or inflation targets. Hence inflation and unemployment levels are sacrificed for the protection of the bond market.

Chart 3 - More BRRRRR to come. 

Chart 4 - BTC is very cyclical.

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US tax receipts hurting the dollar

US tax receipts must continue to grow to fuel the confidence of the US debt markets.


Previous Post: Gold and Oil fundamentals are married together

In chart 1, the red dots marked A to F show the periods where US Federal Tax receipts showed negative growth year over year (YOY). US tax receipts have slowed due to the inflation fighting measures applied by world governments. US inflation has fallen from 9% to 3%. Job done! Now some tight monetary controls can be withdrawn, a lower dollar for one. Each red dot is also timed with a slump (in different degrees) in the US Dollar index (DXY).

POINT: A fall in the US dollar is one of the methods used to inject more US dollar liquidity, or easier money, this tends to be inflationary. A rise in the US dollar removes dollar liquidity, or tighter money, this tends to be deflationary. 

When the US dollar falls, it allows for higher prices for gold and oil. Depending on oil fundamentals at the time, both oil and gold can rise dramatically higher. Tax receipt slumps A, C, D, E, and F enjoyed handsome games on recovery.

Currently YOY% change of US Tax Receipts are negative, this should be followed by a lower US dollar and higher gold and oil prices over the next 6 to 12 months. By how much, we shall see. 



Chart 1 - US dollar, US tax receipts, gold and oil.

Chart 2 - US Dollar Cycle: Plenty of room to move down for the DXY.

Chart 3 - US Dow Jones Cycle: As a falling US dollar is easy money liquidity injection, will it be enough for stocks to move higher in line with 900 day period cycle. Why not!

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Bitcoin chasing dollar weakness

News that Blackrock have high odds to run a bitcoin spot ETF, sparked BTC higher.


Maybe that was the catalyst to spark the bulls. Fundamentals had already shifted months before.

Lets look ...

Chart 1 - The lower US dollar and higher Chinese 10 yr have signaled for a while that bitcoin had room to move higher.

Chart 2 - Standard Wyckoff Accumulation story continues to build. A move to upper resistance would be health and shows the accumulation is still the head line story. 

Chart 3 - Bitcoin weaves it ways through support and resistance channels, like clock work.

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Gold and Oil fundamentals are married together

Crude oil is a very important commodity. Inflation, interest rates, and growth are all affected by it.


Oil shortages lead to higher prices, which leads to higher inflation and higher interest rates. This simple formula highlights that high oil prices are not compatible with high debt levels.

Some points

- Currently the USA federal debt to GDP% is 120%.
- US federal interest payments are likely to be over $1T in 2023 (FYI:US defense budget is $800BN).
- US federal interest payments are elevated during periods of high energy costs.
- Slower growth due to higher interest rates lowers federal tax receipts.
- High government spending while revenues are falling explodes the US federal deficit. 
- A larger US deficit results in more federal debt.
- Rinse and repeat from the top of this list.


Video 1: Significant oil shortages are coming.

Chart 1 : Gold moves higher during periods of energy inflation.

Chart 2: Oil is very Wyckoff accumulation friendly and should be on your watch list.

Chart 3: Gold support and resistance channel lines show the higher targets.

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Silver Volume Swings

Richard Wyckoff told his students think of waves of price and volume. The dog fight of bulls and bears will always resolve.



There are not many books which actually assist money making, yet Tim Ord book below certainly helped this site.

In the book above Tim Ord expands Richard Wyckoff logic and explains how to review waves of price and volume. Lets use silver ETF as an example (code is within readtheticker.com Analysis chart, more examples here)

The chart below uses a fixed bar period to form a 'price wave' and sums up the raw volume for each price wave. Up price waves are blue, down price waves are red.

Lets review the purple numbers 1 to 5 on chart 1.

(1) High volume break out rally higher, very strong demand.
Point: Sign of strength by bulls. 

(2) After a failed attempt to move higher a high volume sell off, a lot of supply, weakness confirmed with move down after swing 24.
Point: Bulls gave up and sold, some increased shorts. 

(3) A high volume sell off, shorts getting exited, breaks support, which eventually failed.
Point: A high volume test of support by the bulls, the bulls prove they are in control and the bears are shaken out when swing 9 lower fails. 

(4) High volume rally.
Point: Bears short covering and giving up, bulls accumulating at a cheaper price.

(5) High volume rally. Bulls accumulating, may be tagged a sign of strength if price gets to resistance. Point: Sign of strength in play, but a work in progress, if it stalls price maybe for more sideways churn. 



Chart 1: Silver (SLV ETF) Volume Swings

Chart 2: Silver Futures Curve

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Bitcoin has found its natural vibration - Update

Gann said everything finds its natural vibration, its manner, its own characteristics.


W D Gann Quote

..“Vibration is fundamental; nothing is exempt from this law; it is universal, therefore applicable to every class of phenomena on the globe"…."After years of patient study I have proven to my entire satisfaction, as well as demonstrated to others, that vibration explains every possible phase and condition of the market”..

In the charts below, you can see BTC price bouncing off walls of support and resistance, this shows price has 'managed moves', completed by very large players.


Chart 1 - Price likes these channel lines, very strange, but its working.

Chart 2 - Major Channel lines support near

Chart 3 - Also major channel lines support is near

Chart 4 - All together, 2024 is going to be very interesting!

Of course, this works for other symbols like gold, silver, bitcoin, ethereum, bonds, and the dollar. Members can go to RTT Charts and select 'The Big Channels' to review more work like the above. Nothing works unless you have deep historical data, and we do have that!



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The Dow has found its natural vibration

Gann said everything finds its natural vibration, its manner, its own characteristics.


Learn more about the Gann law of natural vibration here.

In the chart below, you can see price bouncing off walls of support and resistance (green channel lines: solid and dashed), this shows price has 'managed moves', completed by very large players.

An advantage of using readtheticker.com is that the site has 200 years of Dow Jones data. This means if you do not have this data, you can not find market moving levels. If your charting tool does not have this data, then you are at a disadvantage. Of course the whales moving with Mr Market know these levels, best you do as well.

Of course, channels can change over time and move at different price angles (speed of advance). You can find these channels through simple trial and error. The more hits of price near support and resistance, the more likely it is that you have found the channel that dominates.

Yes, you can do the same with sine wave cycle analysis, but here we are using channels.

These years are very important for the Dow: 1835, 1842, and 1929 (A, B, C). Notice how extremely critical levels were forecast for these years.

Of course, adding more parallel channels can increase accuracy.

Of course, this works for other symbols like gold, silver, bitcoin, ethereum, bonds, and the dollar. Members can go to RTT Charts and select 'The Big Channels' to review more work like the above. Nothing works unless you have deep historical data, and we do have that!



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SP500 cycle low has bearish sentiment support

Holy crap every one is so bearish! In markets nothing is what it seems.

The chart below reviews SP500 cycles with AAII bearish sentiment. Too many bears on the wrong side of the boat can lead to a spark to send the SP500 to new all time highs. It could be investors have bet on a deep recession 12 months to soon! Deep bear market sell offs start when bears are not awake, and that is not now! This implies a possible SP500 rally to all time highs to shake out some of these weak bears, and the real sell off happens once this done, say 2024.

Will the SP500 cycle win again?

Another sentiment tool saying every one is too bearish too soon.

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